Transformers Box Office Thread

[tviceman]

So you know than most of these tracking sites?

Excel is on a drug induce high with Harry Potter. He thinks it'll do $160 million in it's first 5 days, which is $40 million more than any previous Potter could do in that same time span.

He also thought Transformers would struggle to get to $250 million, with no chance of reaching $300million.

 

[Erzengel]

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But, you have a show that's been on for 20 years, that means there is still interest in this show.

 

[tviceman]

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But, you have a show that's been on for 20 years, that means there is still interest in this show.

Yeah I see what you are saying, I just think it won't come anywhere close to that number. Right now the show averages 9.2 million viewers, so the film would need more than double the number of people who watch the tv show to see the film for it to break 200 million

 

[Erzengel]

If FF can make $125?

I think this has the potential to surprise people.

 

[The Caped Knight]

300? Oh hell yeah it will.


Tuesday's totals...

 

[Advanced Dark]

Excel is on a drug induce high with Harry Potter. He thinks it'll do $160 million in it's first 5 days, which is $40 million more than any previous Potter could do in that same time span.

He also thought Transformers would struggle to get to $250 million, with no chance of reaching $300million.

I still am not sure if it'll hit 300. How is it doing against Spidey 3 which is just at 335 million?

 

[Erzengel]

I still am not sure if it'll hit 300. How is it doing against Spidey 3 which is just at 335 million?

At 8 days Spidey was at $199, TF is at $173. So only a $26 million difference.

Monday's gross was an indicator that it was possible but it will be this weekend's total that will say for sure.

 

[Erzengel]

It should be also noted comparing SM3's dailies to Shrek and AWE, that theiir recent dailies are actually higher than SM3 for the same days. Shrek and AWE have been having slightly better repeat business than SM3.

It's only SM3's very heavy 1st week that allows it to remain untouchable.

 

[Advanced Dark]

At 8 days Spidey was at $199, TF is at $173. So only a $26 million difference.

Monday's gross was an indicator that it was possible but it will be this weekend's total that will say for sure.

Ok however how is Transformers dropping off %wise daily right now against Potter. That could grow to a much larger gap real quick. I guess we'll see.

 

[tviceman]

Ok however how is Transformers dropping off %wise daily right now against Potter. That could grow to a much larger gap real quick. I guess we'll see.

If you compare Transformer's first 7 days vs. POTC first 7 days, then you'll see that while Pirates opened much bigger, it dropped off much faster. It's still too early to tell, but it appears that Transformers will have better legs than Pirates. If this holds true, it will eventually pass Pirates.

 

[Erzengel]

Ok however how is Transformers dropping off %wise daily right now against Potter. That could grow to a much larger gap real quick. I guess we'll see.

Well take the Shrek 3 vs. AWE showdown from May.

Shrek in it's 2nd week was still able to keep up with AWE at least domestically. Shrek 3 has even surpassed AWE's numbers.

It was the same logic back then, most people thought that after AWE came out, Shrek would be done but it stuck around.

It could be the same thing with TF, so far word of mouth is pretty good and it's 7th and 8th day releases are on par with the May movie's 4th and 5th day. Yes Potter will have a very good opening day and the #1 movie this weekend, but people will still go and see TF.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Shrek isn't really the same kind of film. It has way more "child tickets" sold than the others which are at cheaper prices which makes it even more impressive.

 

[DarthAlani]

Hopefully tranformers can reach 300 million that is the goal. remember so people were saying this would not even brake 100 mil.

 

[Erzengel]

Shrek isn't really the same kind of film. It has way more "child tickets" sold than the others which are at cheaper prices which makes it even more impressive.

They aren't the same type of film. But, I was more referring to the attitude of discounting Shrek because of Pirates. Same thing with TF. I don't know why some people think Potter is going to roll over TF when if May has taught us everything is that 2 or even 3 films can survive and thrive in close proximity to each other.

 

[mMark]

After reading this: http://www.superherohype.com/news/topnews.php?id=5992 ... and everything above, once again, you guys think that Transformers gonna be the No.1 box office seller this year?

Can HP 5 still able to surpass TF? Wondering.

 

[user123456789]

one of the reasons movies are making more and more money these days is the increase in ticket prices, not increase in audience

imagine how much titanic would have made if it came out TODAY...

 

[tviceman]

After reading this: http://www.superherohype.com/news/topnews.php?id=5992 ... and everything above, once again, you guys think that Transformers gonna be the No.1 box office seller this year?

Can HP 5 still able to surpass TF? Wondering.

I don't think Transformers will pass Spiderman 3 or Shrek 3, but I do think it'll pass Pirates AWE eventually.

 

[Iron Man's Dad]

one of the reasons movies are making more and more money these days is the increase in ticket prices, not increase in audience

imagine how much titanic would have made if it came out TODAY...

I would guess far less with a 3 month DVD window, the internet, and piracy.

 

[Iron Man's Dad]

Ok however how is Transformers dropping off %wise daily right now against Potter. That could grow to a much larger gap real quick. I guess we'll see.

Yes we will, I see a Jurassic Park "you gotta see it on the big screen" syndrome developing, as well as multiple repeat viewings.

 

[Excel]

heh im not drugs.

potter is doing 48-50 million on wednesday...160 5 day certainly looks good.

im not dissing transfomers; i was overjoyed when i was saying well it was doing last week....just dont be dissappointed when it doesnt hold up that well.

 

[nosebleed.]

heh im not drugs.

potter is doing 48-50 million on wednesday...160 5 day certainly looks good.

im not dissing transfomers; i was overjoyed when i was saying well it was doing last week....just dont be dissappointed when it doesnt hold up that well.

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/07/final-tracking-.html

Drastically different from their numbers and other sites as well. What are you basing your projections off of?

5-Day Grosses of the Harry Potter films
2001 - Harry Potter & the Sorcerer’s Stone - $104.5M opening - $317.5M cume
2002 – Harry Potter & the Chamber of Secrets – $98.4M opening - $261.9M cume
2004 – Harry Potter & the Prisoner of Azkaban – $109.3M opening - $249.5M cume
2005 – Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire - $119.7M opening - $290M cume

 

[Excel]

fm are way off. ill prove it right now.

1. 39 opening day + 76 weekend=115. 128-115=13 million.

Their saying it gets maximum of 13 million on thursday? That would be a 67% drop. Spidey fell 46%. Take my word, it's happening.

2. 13 on thursday followed by 76 weekend? Ok, so it increases 80% to 23.4 million and gets a weekend multiplier over 3.

chalk theseup as facts-it aint increasing over 40% on friday (they say 80) and it wont get i an over (they have getting im over 3).

they totally, 110%, made up these numbers and ill accept your apology when you figure that out.

Potters wedenesday will be between 45-50 million. bank on that ballpark.


Unlike them, IM actually looking at REAL numbers-theater averages and sell out lists. That is how I VERY ACURRATLY predicted transformers days last weekend. From the numbers, i said 8 million in the 8-12 showings and i was right; i said 28 million tuesdya andi was right, and i said nothing udner 25 on wednesday...and was right.

fm should hire me

 

[FCEEVIPER]

I wasn't joking when I posted that it will make 300.


It will. Mark me up.

 

[nosebleed.]

Well, FM said they'd have the early returns for opening day by 11pm Pacific...so we'll see soon.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Yes we will, I see a Jurassic Park "you gotta see it on the big screen" syndrome developing, as well as multiple repeat viewings.

Jurassic Park sucked. The book ruled though. Let's use the Matrix as a comparison.