BoX Office Thread

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Marvel Studios’ Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - Boxoffice

Tracking for 120-150 million opening.

 

There doesn't seem to be big buzz for this sadly. I think we are looking at a potential massive underperformance here. I hope to be wrong as this is one of the films I was already looking forward too. But everything seems to be pointing to an underpformance.

 

Box Office Pro has gradually revised their GoTG3 domestic opening weekend estimate down to $110M-$135M as of a few days ago ($264M-$351M final domestic total), while pre-sale ticket trackers on Box Office Theory are a bit more dire in their belief that it will open lower based on pre-sales.

Long Range Box Office Forecast: FAST X Trending Toward $65-70M+ Domestic Start in Early Outlook - Boxoffice

 

I wonder if Marvel is soft on the marketing and promotion for this one because Gunn is now in charge of the competition.

 

Disney likes money too much.

 

I don't know. I don't see a very strong promotion for this movie.

 

Wouldn't make sense to spend $200 mil on this and actively sabotage it. Would be like shooting yourself in the face

 

Are presales even reliable indicators of BO these days, post-pandemic?

I almost never buy my tickets before the day of.

 

GoTG3 presales are being compared to the other recent MCU movies, namely BP2, Thor 4, AntMan3.

Marvel (along with Star Wars) is more heavily dependent upon presales than most other franchises.

Right now it looks like between a $12.6M and $16.5M Thursday preview for Guardians based on the current presales according to M37's sales data on BoT.

Thor4: $29M preview, $144,165,107 opening weekend (4.97 multiplier)
BP2: $28M preview, $181,339,761 opening weekend (6.48 multiplier)
AM3: $15.5M preview, $106,109,650 opening weekend (6.85 multiplier)

Guardians 3
12.6M * 4.97 = $62.2M opening weekend
12.6M * 6.48 = $81.6M opening weekend
12.6M * 6.85 = $86.3M opening weekend
16.5M * 4.97 = $82.0M opening weekend
16.5M * 6.48 = $106.9M opening weekend
16.5M * 6.85 = $113.0M opening weekend

 

That would be bad. 120 would be average at best, below that it’s unthinkable for me anyways.

Wait a minute I just noticed BOP is predicting between 110-130! Oh dear…

 

Open weekend 110 domestic 280 worldwide 590

unfortunately buzz remains tepid this late to opening.

 

Damn, that would be pretty bad to not even get to $600m.

 

A lot of people seem to have prebooked weekday showings compared to what I normally see when booking tickets. Anecdotal of course but I’ll take any good sign I can get.

 

'Guardians of the Galaxy 3' Box Office Opening Weekend Projection - Variety

 

Not looking like any outperformance incoming. Tracking looks to be on the lower end of what I would have thought a while back.

 

Damn, another step lower for domestic. The marketing for this film never blew up. Feels like quite low engagement/general excitement.

 

I have a feeling that this will be a pattern for most of the upcoming Marvel films.

 

I think Marvel has to rethink how they do marketing for films as they wait almost way too long to get going, likely because they have so many projects in the pipeline that divert their attention and then never give fans a chance to actually miss the MCU.

 

The marketing for this seems to have been understated and a bit too little too late.

 

It feels like I've been seeing like only one commercial a night for the last few weeks for it, which just seems strange for a film that's supposed to kick off the summer film season and end one of the MCU's best trilogies. Marvel has been dropping the ball with their marketing for the past couple years.