well i'm just saying, i heard litterally no one EVER say "i dont want to see batman begins, the last batman movies were horrible"
I heard people say that. I remember when Begins was about to hit, I tried to talk my non comic loving friends into it and NOBODY cared. Batman and Robin was evoked constantly(as was Catwoman on occasion). The film was out a full month before my skeptical family/friends were willing to go see it. Most were pleasantly surprised.
I think Wolverine is going to face the same thing. Like others on this board, I know many non-fanboys who thought X3 was medicore in comparison to the first 2 films. Now, I know it's not a Batman and Robin level of disrespect but to say the x-men franchise is untarnished, is unrealistic. Honestly, if everyone you know LOVED X-men 3, you have to ask yourself how discerning an filmgoer they are. Are they really into movies/films? Or are they just looking for a good time at the movies every time they go? Have they ever watched a non summer box office type flick and really loved it? More than once? I'm not saying that it's bad if all the people you know are just popcorn movie lovers but it does play a factor here.
On the opposite end, if everybody you know(which is my case) thought X3 kind of sucked, you have to ask the opposite questions. I tend to surround myself with more artsy fartsy filmgoers so they were much more putoff by X3 than some others were.
Other points I want to briefly touch upon...
-As stated earlier, the X-men films don't have huge legs. I think for a lot of the general public, x-men has a very unfamiliar, nerdier stigma to it than Spider-man or Batman. Despite X-men being around since the early 60's, I think most will agree that it didn't become popular outside of comic fans, until the early 90's and the fans that were around for that are only about 30 or so at the oldest. So for moviegoers older than about 35(with some obvious exceptions), X-men is just some weird, nerdy sci-fi thing that they don't know anything about and are not sure they want to know about. I once met an administrator when I was in college who told me she hates her husband's x-men and matrix movies. I eventually kind of debated with her until I got her to reluctantly admit that she hates them not because of their quality but because she doesn't understand them and is unfamiliar(in x-men's case) with the franchise's existance in the first place.
-X3 WILL hurt Wolverine. Realistcally, I don't think Wolverine can open higher than 80 million. While that is a good opening, it's unspectacular when you consider that if X3 had been more positively received, Wolverine would be guaranteed 100 million plus opening but the negativey of the last movie hurts it's opening chances. I lliked X3 and i'm a huge x-men fan but like others, I can't get over a handful of choices X3 made. In fact, if they had just left Cyclops alive, I'd be a lot happier with the film in general. General filmgoers don't care as much about the Cyclops thing but they still recognize it wasn't as good as X2.
-The star Trek factor. I've made no secret on these forums that I still think Star Trek is a tough sell to the non-nerd set and although I think that's changing, it's STILL going to hurt Wolverine despite all of this. In fact, Wolverine's second week is looking worse and worse. No matter what, Star Trek will dethrone it the second week but how bad of a drop for Wolverine will there be? To me, Star Trek=Watchmen in many ways. Trek is more well known obviously and has some fans outside of it's fanbase but its' still a fair comparison. Is there anything with a nerdier stigma than Star Trek? I still think no matter how action packed it looks, there will be many who just won't go watch a star trek film. IF that happens and that film opens under 50(or eve 40 million), Wolverine will only beneift. If it's as good as it looks and enough people go, Trek will probably open to 60 million plus. I think Trek's success key will be about legs.
-Finally there's the fanboy review factor. Raise your hand if your non-nerd friends/co-workers take your opinion of an comic book film more seriously than they probably should?(raises own hand). If an comic book flick comes out and i'm NOT superhyped after seeing it, I know folks who will wait for dvd or just won't watch it all. On the other hand, if I love it, they'll be much more apt go watch it(not saying they DEFINITELY WILL as people still mostly go on their own interests) but my influence can make or break on occasion. I'm sure there are others here who are their group's nerd guru and people care what you think about these kind of flicks. When I saw Watchmen, EVERYBODY I knew wanted to know what I thought of it.