Deadpool Deadpool Box Office Prediction Thread

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

I completely agree. I don't think this movie would have been as effective for the GA 6-8 years ago.

I think it would have flopped just like Dredd, despite still being a very good movie. Now is the perfect time to release it and get some success.

 

[def28]

Dredd flopped because nobody knew it was ever released, not cause it was R. The marketing and awareness was terrible.

 

[BlackFox]

The timing of now does feel kind of perfect. GA's are now well versed in comic book movies and extremely popular so poking a bit of fun at their tropes and cliches now seems right plus it gives them plenty more material for DP to use as ammo. I'm not sure it would have worked as well pre-Avengers for example, not on the general scale we are seeing. DP fans would still have loved the heck out of it but the GA is a tougher one to call.

 

[def28]

Yeah, this was a great time to be released because it allowed Deadpool to dig into other comic films and the saturated market.

Ultimately here's the thing wtih the GA. They like fun movies.

People said the GA wouldn't like Iron Man as much as fans, crossovers like Avengers or GOTG cause they are not as well known. If it's presented well, they like what fans do. They just don't run to the store every week or discuss it 24/7.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

The timing of now does feel kind of perfect. GA's are now well versed in comic book movies and extremely popular so poking a bit of fun at their tropes and cliches now seems right plus it gives them plenty more material for DP to use as ammo. I'm not sure it would have worked as well pre-Avengers for example, not on the general scale we are seeing. DP fans would still have loved the heck out of it but the GA is a tougher one to call.

 

[def28]

http://deadline.com/2016/02/deadpoo...gle-valentines-weekend-box-office-1201699895/

2ND UPDATE: Refresh for updates After blowing away the Thursday preview R-rated record with $12.7M, 20th Century Fox’s Deadpool is now looking at a four-day between $80M-$90M with a Friday that’s in the low $30M range today. Universal’s Fifty Shades of Grey currently owns the February opening day record of $30.28M, 3-day of $85.2M and 4-day of $93M.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I think it will get above $90 million for the four-day but looks like it will fall a wee bit short of the 100 mark. Still a ridonkulously good number.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

80 m for the four day with higher previews than GotG or Winter Soldier?

Seems way too low.

 

[TheVileOne]

So what you're saying is that it's very possible this film will have a higher opening weekend than Fant4stic.

 

[TheVileOne]

80 m for the four day with higher previews than GotG or Winter Soldier?

Seems way too low.

Thursday previews don't always tell the whole story. Sometimes film do really good Thursday night previews but still underperform for the weekend.

 

[InCali]

So what you're saying is that it's very possible this film will have a higher opening weekend than Fant4stic.

Please let me finish your sentence

made in its entire domestic run. (Sentence completed )

 

[Eddie]

It'll probably make more worldwide this weekend than Fant4stic made on it's entire worldwide run.

 

[kguillou]

Im very happy for this movie. It deserved it.90 mill first weekend on a 58 mill budget? Not bad at ALL. Ryan Reynolds finally got a hit on his hands and Fox' Xmen franchise resurgence gets even bigger.

 

[InCali]

Im very happy for this movie. It deserved it.90 mill first weekend on a 58 mill budget? Not bad at ALL. Ryan Reynolds finally got a hit on his hands and Fox' Xmen franchise resurgence gets even bigger.

The resurgence is yet to be seen, but they certainly appear to be on the right track with FC and DoFP (both of which I liked). The problem for X-Men is that they don't have a lot of trust built up due to the fact that the efforts have been so uneven in the past. If Apocalypse is a dud (which I don't think it will be), then who knows what comes next?

Thor 2 and IM 2 were generally not considered Marvel's best efforts, but they had put out so many successful efforts that it didn't tarnish them too much. Plus, I don't think they were that bad. Certainly not Last Stand bad.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

The resurgence is yet to be seen, but they certainly appear to be on the right track with FC and DoFP (both of which I liked). The problem for X-Men is that they don't have a lot of trust built up due to the fact that the efforts have been so uneven in the past. If Apocalypse is a dud (which I don't think it will be), then who knows what comes next?

Thor 2 and IM 2 were generally not considered Marvel's best efforts, but they had put out so many successful efforts that it didn't tarnish them too much. Plus, I don't think they were that bad. Certainly not Last Stand bad.

Well that's 4 X movies on the run I have loved now. I liked the Wolverine as well, and even loved the extended R Rated version. TLS and Origins were poor, but since then they have got the franchise back on track. Deadpool is great and Apocalypse looks brilliant.

 

[kguillou]

I think the resurgence was in full effect with DOFP. That movie was FOX pretty much saying "Ok, folks, our bad for X3 and Origins, we're back on track now." FC and The Wolverine were steps in the right direction, but DOFP was the full on ressurection.

 

[InCali]

I think the resurgence was in full effect with DOFP. That movie was FOX pretty much saying "Ok, folks, our bad for X3 and Origins, we're back on track now."

I think that's true. My point is that "if" they come out with another Last Stand (which I DON'T think will happen), all bets are off. They got back on track with FC and DoFP.

 

[def28]

Deadpool is not just the most faithful Fox Marvel film but one of the most faithful comic films in general. This and the failure of Fan4stic should finally drill into Fox that letting these characters hit their potential leads to a bigger success and more marketable characters for them.

And most importantly, hire someone who actually cares about these characters being well represented on screen. That was Reynolds goal from the start and it shows.

 

[antonydelfini]

Yeah Fox's X-Men movies have been consistently great. 6 out of 8 of their X-Men universe movies have been pretty great.

Gonna watch this badboy again in a couple of hours.

 

[Wildcard]

After finally seeing this today, I'm more confident than ever in its ability to cross that $500 million threshold worldwide. Imo, it's a lock. This movie is too damn good not to break out and hit a number of that magnitude.

 

[venom892]

I haven't seen the movie yet, but with a rotten tomatoes score in the 80's, considerable buzz and on track to possibly break more records, Reynolds is vindicated. I hope this opens the door more r rated comic projects, especially X-force.

 

[WilliamK99]

Deadline has it at a 115 million 4 day, curious if it can go even higher? That is an amazing number for an R rated film...Hopefully Fox takes the right lessons out of this and doesn't try to rush multiple sequels just to make more money...

 

[Sithborg]

After finally seeing this today, I'm more confident than ever in its ability to cross that $500 million threshold worldwide. Imo, it's a lock. This movie is too damn good not to break out and hit a number of that magnitude.

With what it's being projected to do this weekend, yeah, $500 is pretty safe. Hell, it's going to have to fall pretty hard not to make $200 domestic.

I do think it is going to be a fight to get a $100 3-day, but I think it's possible. My small audience this afternoon (snow was kind of bad) really loved it.

The marketing team needs a huge raise.

 

[def28]

http://deadline.com/2016/02/deadpoo...gle-valentines-weekend-box-office-1201699895/

20th Century Fox’s Deadpool spanked Fifty Shades’ Friday figure by 37% with a projected daily haul of $41.5M (that includes $12.7M in Thursday previews) and is on course to make a jawdropping 3-day of $102.5M and 4-day of $115.3M. These are industry figures based of closed east coast registers. They’re not from Fox, and things could change by the time we hit midnight on the west coast. This is a huge win for Ryan Reynolds, easily his best opening of all-time. The leading man had the deck stacked against him with another superhero movie, Warner Bros. 2011 Green Lantern, which despite its $53M opening was considered a bomb given its $200M production cost.

 

[Incarnadine]

Deadline has it at a 115 million 4 day, curious if it can go even higher? That is an amazing number for an R rated film...Hopefully Fox takes the right lessons out of this and doesn't try to rush multiple sequels just to make more money...

Rth has it at low to mid 40's for Friday (counting Thursday previews) and WOM is amazing so it could easily top 120. What amazed me was the number of girls at the showing I saw who were big fans. Several had Deadpool shirts and one hot young blond (from what I could see of the figure and ponytail sticking up from the mask) came in full costume, a really professional looking one too, although the mask was a bit loose.