Deadpool Deadpool Box Office Prediction Thread

[WilliamK99]

So the question remains how will the legs be on this thing? Will it crash and burn like many other R rated films before it or will it continue to surprise us?

 

[Blade X]

Guardians of the Galaxy and the 2nd and 3rd Iron Man films are pretty much comedies. I'd say the same for the Avengers as well. I'd say Winter Soldier was the only Marvel film that didn't have a lot of comedy in it. Marvel in general leans on comedy pretty heavily and that has worked for them in spades.

I forgot about GOTG. The other movies that you listed I didn't think came off as being very comedic, despite having comedy in them.

 

[2kt09]

Australia will be the "China" of its OS haul.

 

[Blade X]

I don't have a point. I just noticed how you kept ranting about the R-rating decreasing the movie's possibilities at the box office, and now that it's opening to huge success, you've moved over to talk about how it's gonna affect the sequel in a negative way. It seems like a continuous stream of you talking about how bad it is that Deadpool is not PG-13.

This is the last time I'm going to respond to this whole ratings debate. For the record, I repeatedly said that the movie was going to be a hit before it came out and that the movie would be an even bigger hit if it was rated PG-13. In regards to the sequel, I was only saying that there is NO GUARANTEE that the sequel will be a hit NOT that the sequel would be a flop. Nothing more, nothing less. Case closed.

But you're totally right. I should just back off instead of reading so much into any of your comments.

Good, we finally agree on something.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Per BOT's very reliable insider, Saturday will come in at $41-43 million.

That would be farking insane. Go Deadpool go!

 

[Blade X]

I hope you meant $300M to $400M Overseas rather than Worldwide. The early Saturday estimate is 41-43m giving it about $90m in 2 days (counting previews) with the 4 day total likely to be 140-150m. Deadpool could make a run at 300+ Domestic.

I meant worldwide based on the Friday estimates. With the Saturday estimates I'm going to bump my prediction up to $500M to $600M worldwide.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

So the question remains how will the legs be on this thing? Will it crash and burn like many other R rated films before it or will it continue to surprise us?

The word of mouth is red hot. Sure there will be some natural frontloading but I'd be shocked if this film didn't have good legs.

I'm **** at predicting overseas numbers so I mostly opt out of that. I read that it's doing well so far.

 

[Blade X]

I've been hearing for awhile now that Suicide Squad cost 200 million just to make (wouldn't have guessed it during production, but then, I've heard 300+ on BvS). I don't think we're that much closer to $200,000,000 R rated films.

That movie does not look like it cost $200M to me.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

By all reports it's blowing the doors off everywhere. $200 million+ WW OW is a lock.

 

[Eddie]

Hey, it doesn't to me either. That said, BvS doesn't look like it cost more than Avatar, and many film journalists are saying it did. I'd have thought 150 tops on SS. Just passing along what I've been hearing. Either way, an R rated Suicide Squad would have been drastically different. It wouldn't be the film they actually made at all.

 

[Blade X]

Australia will be the "China" of its OS haul.

Well the X-Men are very popular in Australia.

 

[Eddie]

Australia likes violent killers. It reminds them of their native wildlife. Deadpool's gonna be HUGE!

 

[jmc]

Hey, it doesn't to me either. That said, BvS doesn't look like it cost more than Avatar, and many film journalists are saying it did. I'd have thought 150 tops on SS. Just passing along what I've been hearing. Either way, an R rated Suicide Squad would have been drastically different. It wouldn't be the film they actually made at all.

It's still boggles my mind how much is being rumoured on SS. I can't help but think Deadpool shows you can make a $60m movie look like any $150m blockbuster out there. When I watch something like Mad Max I can see where all the money went, but for half the blockbuster movies going around you end up scratching your head trying to work out what exactly they spent the money on.

 

[Eddie]

It's still boggles my mind how much is being rumoured on SS. I can't help but think Deadpool shows you can make a $60m movie look like any $150m blockbuster out there. When I watch something like Mad Max I can see where all the money went, but for half the blockbuster movies going around you end up scratching your head trying to work out what exactly they spent the money on.

In the case of Suicide Squad it has to be the cast if the rumors are true. Wanting an R rated Suicide Squad is fine, but that movie probably wouldn't have had Leto, Smith, or

Spoiler

Affleck.

 

[kguillou]

SS probably spent a LOT on the cast salaries. Will Smith alone demands a hefty price.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Australia likes violent killers. It reminds them of their native wildlife. Deadpool's gonna be HUGE!

Apparently America loves violent killers as well but we already knew that.

 

[jmc]

Australia likes violent killers. It reminds them of their native wildlife. Deadpool's gonna be HUGE!

Our tourist slogan is 'Come to Australia - You Might Just Survive'.

 

[Eddie]

Apparently America loves violent killers as well but we already knew that.

At least Australia's most violent killers are snakes, spiders, etc. Here in America the most deadly critter is the two legged jackass.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

At least Australia's most violent killers are snakes, spiders, etc. Here in America the most deadly critter is the two legged jackass.

Exactly.

 

[Flint Marko]

Guardians of the Galaxy and the 2nd and 3rd Iron Man films are pretty much comedies. I'd say the same for the Avengers as well. I'd say Winter Soldier was the only Marvel film that didn't have a lot of comedy in it. Marvel in general leans on comedy pretty heavily and that has worked for them in spades.

Marvel definitely leans into the humor but calling them comedies is overstating things. I'd argue the only superhero movies that could comfortably be called a comedy are Deadpool and Kick-ass.

Thinking more about these amazing numbers...

I paid to see it both days and I'm not even a big Deadpool fan. If I had to list my top 50 Marvel characters, I don't think Deadpool would crack the top fifty. Yet, here I am talking it up on other movie sites and supporting it fully. They captured lightning in a bottle and didn't even know it. Marvel fans WANT an "R" rated movie and we want to support anyone like Ryan who is passionate about a pure translation from book to screen. The fan base was energized!

That and the best damn marketing of a film this century.

I think the biggest take-away here is that counter-programing is real and can work in the genre's favor. Tired of the endless onslaught of superhero films? Here's one that's quite a bit different than the ones you've grown accustomed to.
Same with the marketing - don't go for a four quadrant approach each and every time. You made this movie for a certain audience so cater every bit of promotion towards them specifically.

In the case of Suicide Squad it has to be the cast if the rumors are true. Wanting an R rated Suicide Squad is fine, but that movie probably wouldn't have had Leto, Smith, or

Spoiler

Affleck.

Good point. I think the same counter-programming I previously alluded to could comfortably work with a PG-13 rating as well.

 

[samsnee]

Makes you wonder. Will Fox now try to go a little more lighter in their approach to Gambit to make it more like Deadpool, or stick with the more "weight of the world" approach the last two X-men movies have gone with.

 

[Drizzle]

Makes you wonder. Will Fox now try to go a little more lighter in their approach to Gambit to make it more like Deadpool, or stick with the more "weight of the world" approach the last two X-men movies have gone with.

I'd guess middle of the road for Gambit. Not as light as Deadpool, but not X-Men Apocalypse dark either. Gambit isn't a completely serious and dark character, but he's not comic relief. No need to steer too far in either direction.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

At least Australia's most violent killers are snakes, spiders, etc. Here in America the most deadly critter is the two legged jackass.

Nailed it. ( ya see what I did there huh huh huh huh )

 

[Eddie]

If anything, I'd hope they go all in on the "Claremont" with Gambit. Deadpool struck a chord with audiences by embracing the comic. Having a script co-written by Chris Claremont could provide that comic embracing feel to Gambit.

 

[TheVileOne]

This film would not have done better if it was PG-13. The R-rating is part of its whole appeal because it doesn't have to follow typical superhero movie conventions. It can do things differently. If this was PG-13 it wouldn't have been a fraction as appealing to audiences and critics.

This rating allows Deadpool to be something completely different that we haven't really seen before out of this genre.

This film is basically going to have a better opening than EVERY PG-13 X-Men film in existence.