Deadpool Deadpool Box Office Prediction Thread

[Sithborg]

There is no theory to it. Gambit is not coming out this year.

 

[Zarex]

The post credit scene will be Deadpool in his bathrobe telling the audience to go home (ala Ferris Bueller).

 

[psylockolussus]

Thats not even confirmed.

 

[BlackFox]

Could this storm in the US have an effect on OW? I know its a couple weeks away yet but things look pretty bad over there, will some people be able to get to the cinemas in some locations as things stand?

 

[psylockolussus]

Only time can tell.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Could this storm in the US have an effect on OW? I know its a couple weeks away yet but things look pretty bad over there, will some people be able to get to the cinemas in some locations as things stand?

Unless there's another big snowstorm things should be back to normal by mid February.

 

[Flint Marko]

Some people in this thread have really overblown how popular the character is. Within the fanboy bubble Deadpool is very popular, no doubt about it, but that's only a small section of the population.
The movie looks to change that, but at the moment he's more of a cult icon than an actual A-lister.

 

[Zant]

The movie will change that. After mid Feb, he will be closer to the A-list. Not bad for an R-rated character.

 

[def28]

Not sure how some of you gauge characters prior to headlining a film, but the whole reason this movie exists is because Fox saw he got popular beyond his comic audience subscribing every week. Which does not happen alot. If this was 08, yeah fanboy bubble. His name is pretty obviously mainstream now. It's what happens when comic characters are announced in mainstream movies, marvel puts merch outside comic book shops and lots of youtubers who get 15-20m hits a vid are highlighting him. Those are not small areas for exposure.

Does that mean he's up there with the guys making over 500m film right now? Obviously not. He hasn't had that headlining spotlight on the big screen, and we have no idea where he will land. Regardless, we all know now from movies like Green Lantern, Fant4stic, etc and dips in franchises like X-Men and Spider-Man that when the box office drops it's cause of quality. If this film sucks it won't matter how popular he is.

 

[Golgo-13]

I really hope this movie does well, but opening up in mid-feb is risky as hell. That's usually the time when the East coast especially, gets hit with snow. If memory serves me correctly Daredevil came out around that time and a massive snow storm crippled it's b.o. Yes, it sucked but still…..keeping my fingers crossed!

 

[Sithborg]

Luckily, it has a rather large safety net, with it's budget being so low. But, I think evidence shows, generally if there is a weather event, the box office rebounds the next weekend. Shouldn't be an issue, since nothing of note opens the week after.

 

[psylockolussus]

Fifty Shades of Grey did pretty well even though it had bad legs at the box-office. While Kingsman really had good legs and earned more than $120 million in North America.

 

[KINGTHANOS]

Fifty Shades of Grey did pretty well even though it had bad legs at the box-office. While Kingsman really had good legs and earned more than $120 million in North America.

Quality is key for its legs.

 

[sherrymarton]

i think it will gain the overall of 400 millions as it focuses on only that psychology who are interested in superhero series..... but on the other hand it will be a good entertainment

 

[OutOfBoose]

300 if it's really good.

 

[Sithborg]

If it opens up anywhere near $50 million, it will make some serious bank.

 

[XtremelyBaneful]

at LEAST $500 mill. Although I will admit I may be off by a lot considering its rated R

 

[-JKR-]

$500 would be an amazing and incredible feat. We'll see. The movie's definitely getting some great buzz even outside of the core fanbase.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I'll be very happy with anything over 400 m.

That pretty much guarantees a sequel and probably an X-Force movie.

 

[-JKR-]

I'll be very happy with anything over 400 m.

That pretty much guarantees a sequel and probably an X-Force movie.

To be honest, with the movie's budget being around $60m, a $300+m worldwide gross would already be a huge thing, especially with it being rated R, and surely warrant a sequel. Would I be glad if it did even better? Of course!

I always like to remember people that Batman begins did not gross $400m worldwide in theaters, and even with its $150m budget it still got a sequel thanks to the legs it had, the acclaim and the home video gross.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I'm a little skeptical of the 60 m budget estimate.

This movie looks like it cost at least 100 m.

 

[-JKR-]

I'm a little skeptical of the 60 m budget estimate.

This movie looks like it cost at least 100 m.

It's not really an estimate. Ed Skrein said the budget was $60m in this interview (@4:11 if the video doesn't start at the right point) last summer:

[YT]ulQz4oXF4ko?t=4m11s[/YT]

And they've talked more than once about how they managed to make it look bigger than it actually is. A great director (which I hope Tim Miller will turn out to be) will do that. John Carpenter, for example, is pretty well known for making low budget movies look much bigger in scope and cost. And let's not forget that Tim Miller is a visual effects expert and at the head of BLUR Studio for about 20 years, so he definitely knows a few shortcuts to solid VFX results.

By the way, the original Matrix would cost $89m today calculating inflation, so it doesn't seem like that huge of a stretch to me.

 

[Weather Witch]

I'm a little skeptical of the 60 m budget estimate.

This movie looks like it cost at least 100 m.

We have Tim Miller's studio to thank for that.

 

[Wildcard]

If they pulled this off for $60 million (which I can believe, it is possible to create big superhero movies for less than $100-$250 million) then that further proves what I've been saying this entire time regarding the enormous budgets that have come to be a regular occurrence in the superhero genre.

 

[Sithborg]

I'm a little skeptical of the 60 m budget estimate.

This movie looks like it cost at least 100 m.

The initial reports were talking about $75 million. It sounds like it got cut down to $60. I mean, even Ryan Reynolds when it was about to start filming talked about how they didn't get quite as much as they wanted for budget.