Deadpool Deadpool Box Office Prediction Thread

[DarthSkywalker]

How? You think Viacom gave Deadpool all that air time for free? Fox bought all that air time on the Viacom networks because those viewers are the key demos for the film.

No, what I am saying is that through their corporate sponsors, they found a lot of their money for their campaign, and thus only spent 20m out of pocket. I agree 20m is low, but I could see ways it happened.

 

[TheVileOne]

No, what I am saying is that through their corporate sponsors, they found a lot of their money for their campaign, and thus only spent 20m out of pocket. I agree 20m is low, but I could see ways it happened.

Not possible. That number was thrown out by someone who said the campaign is built around viral videos, which it's not.

 

[Weather Witch]

Wait, but didn't Twilight gross much more than that WW?

The whole Twilight Saga comes in at $3,345,177,904. All the X-Men movies so far at $3,053,047,399.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Not possible. That number was thrown out by someone who said the campaign is built around viral videos, which it's not.

That is the source? Then I agree. Because yeah, those billboards aren't cheap, much less the commercials.

 

[ernesth100]

I wanna go see it with my friends. But none of us are 18 . Do we need to bring an adult? Can I pretend to be 18.

 

[Weather Witch]

I wanna go see it with my friends. But none of us are 18 . Do we need to bring an adult? Can I pretend to be 18.

If you are in the US you have to bring an adult yeah. If you are in my country you only have to be 16 though, and 15 for the UK.

 

[Ghostcrow13]

That is the source? Then I agree. Because yeah, those billboards aren't cheap, much less the commercials.

I genuinely think I've seen more billboards, posters, things on sides of buses etc for Deadpool than any other movie in a long time.

I personally wouldn't be surprised if they spent close to the production budget again with the marketing.

I think they knew they had a very good film and knew they had a core audience that needed to be expanded. And it appears it will be worth the money.

 

[TheVileOne]

I genuinely think I've seen more billboards, posters, things on sides of buses etc for Deadpool than any other movie in a long time.

I personally wouldn't be surprised if they spent close to the production budget again with the marketing.

I think they knew they had a very good film and knew they had a core audience that needed to be expanded. And it appears it will be worth the money.

Yeah this is well beyond viral marketing here. Not to mention buying all that air time across the Viacom channels and then the Superb Owl ad.

 

[kedrell]

I wanna go see it with my friends. But none of us are 18 . Do we need to bring an adult? Can I pretend to be 18.

If you are in the US you have to bring an adult yeah. If you are in my country you only have to be 16 though, and 15 for the UK.

I thought the threshold for seeing an R rated movie in America was that you had to be 17 or older, not 18.

 

[TheVileOne]

It's 17 in the US.

 

[kedrell]

Yeah, thought so. It's been decades since I even needed to know that so I was a little fuzzy on it.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

FWIW it's No. 1 with 50% of presales on movietickets.com today, versus 3% for Zoolander 2. I'd say that's a good sign.

 

[Zant]

Pro Box office.com have raised their prediction to 81 mill opening. I do hope they relax on these high numbers so as not to raise expectations.

 

[Eddie]

Yeah, I'm curious to see if these increased predictions are overdoing it a little. The reviews I've seen describe a VERY raunchy R rated film that won't be for everyone.

 

[def28]

Why would it being raunchy matter though? Most well known comedies from the 00's and up are rated R anyways.

We got The Hangover tril, 21 Jump street, Ted, Spy, Brides Maids, Were the Millers, This Is the End, Neighbors, Trainwreck, Superbad, Knocked Up, Wedding Crashers, Old School, Role Models, I Love you Man, 40 Year Old Virgin, Forgetting Sarah Marshall etc.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Pro Box office.com have raised their prediction to 81 mill opening. I do hope they relax on these high numbers so as not to raise expectations.

Wow, wasn't it only like $50 million a month ago? Now it's over $80 million? Yeah, that seems like a big jump to me.

 

[def28]

Pro box office had it at 75m originally. It's counting it as a 4 day weekend I believe, not a 3 day.

 

[Eddie]

Why would it being raunchy matter though? Most well known comedies from the 00's and up are rated R anyways.

We got The Hangover tril, 21 Jump street, Ted, Spy, Brides Maids, Were the Millers, This Is the End, Neighbors, Trainwreck, Superbad, Knocked Up, Wedding Crashers, Old School, Role Models, I Love you Man, 40 Year Old Virgin, Forgetting Sarah Marshall etc.

Of the films you named, only the second Hangover had the kind of opening they're now predicting for Deadpool. Only five R rated films have ever had an 80 million+ opening. No R film has ever hit 400 mil total (only two did over 300, and they both had legs with Conservatives).

 

[def28]

Deadpool's 3 day is still at 50-60 no? That's 22 Jump Street numbers.

Again, I just don't see the raunchy humor being an issue as most audiences love movies like The Hangover more then critics. Adult audiences like raunchy foul mouthed sex comedies. Not sure why people would be shocked if audiences laugh at that stuff.

The unsuspecting parents brining their kids by the plenty will be the issue imo.

 

[Sithborg]

Of the films you named, only the second Hangover had the kind of opening they're now predicting for Deadpool. Only five R rated films have ever had an 80 million+ opening. No R film has ever hit 400 mil total (only two did over 300, and they both had legs with Conservatives).

Probably because they are looking at it as a 4 day weekend.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Pro box office had it at 75m originally. It's counting it as a 4 day weekend I believe, not a 3 day.

OK that makes a little more sense then. I could see it getting up in the $80 million neighborhood over four days. Still seems a wee bit optimistic but we will see.

 

[Eddie]

With the great marketing campaign it may well hit it. Just pointing out that only 17 R films have ever had a fifty million or better opening. Almost every film you named opened WAY less than that. Forgetting Sarah Marshall, for example, didn't hit 18. It SHOULD hit within these estimates, but I'd caution against raising them much more.

 

[def28]

Fair enough

Having a Marvel character like this in an R Rated film is a new thing, so it will be an interesting weekend oneway or the other.

 

[Eddie]

The entire film industry is curious to see what it does. James Gunn tweeted that he prays every night that it's a hit.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Again FWIW my local Cinemark has three preview Deadpool showing scheduled for Thursday (starting at 7) and then 13 a day for FSSM. In comparison Z2 is getting three previews then 9 shows a day and How to Be Single three previews and 5 shows a day. So it looks like Deadpool will have plenty of opportunity to make bank. Lack of 3D will ding the numbers a bit tho.