Discussion: The REPUBLICAN Party - Part 16

[DDS]

I think you need to strap yourself in and prepare for a Cruz or Trump nomination. No one else has any chance at all at this point.

Do you guys really think so? If the GOP base really wanted to win, that would be a huge mistake. I'd say those two plus Carson are, ironically, the least electable clowns in the Clown Car for the general.

I kept thinking Rubio would take off now - probably the most electable candidate - but it hasn't happened yet.

 

[Marvolo]

Idk if it will be Cruz or Rubio, but I do know that it wont be Christie.

 

[Kelly]

Do you guys really think so? If the GOP base really wanted to win, that would be a huge mistake. I'd say those two plus Carson are, ironically, the least electable clowns in the Clown Car for the general.

I kept thinking Rubio would take off now - probably the most electable candidate - but it hasn't happened yet.

Most of these polls that we have been seeing are not necessarily "likely voters" being polled. Also, pollsters STILL have not caught up with technology. Most of us have cell phones now and have blocked these types of calls, whereas the demo of 65+...those that would be more likely to follow a Trump are being targeted on their land lines. The polls are skewed, yet the dumbass media continue to show them as fact. It is ridiculous, and people should have learned concerning that at the end a good number of polls was showing a different outcome in the 2012 election and we know how that actually went. It is ridiculous to be giving these polls so much power. Wait until the candidates begin hitting the the primaries...

 

[KevanG]

Like I keep telling people who.insist polls are 'predicting' the future, polls get a tiny percentage of people in pre-selected areas at certain times. They don't mean ***** 99% of the time. I've done several in Canada and the few people under 50 you speak to tend to either not care this early or are considering 2-3 people for a multitude of reasons.

 

[Thundercrack85]

Honestly, the sheer number of polls do suggest that Trump has a decent shot. That alone should be terrifying.

I was a skeptic, but it's December, and he's still the front runner.

The methods used for polling may be outdated, but the people most likely to vote aren't exactly the tech savvy crowd.

 

[Kelly]

Honestly, the sheer number of polls do suggest that Trump has a decent shot. That alone should be terrifying.

I was a skeptic, but it's December, and he's still the front runner.

The methods used for polling may be outdated, but the people most likely to vote aren't exactly the tech savvy crowd.

They are also the same group that had a certain Republican, slightly out in front of Obama the week before election day.

 

[Thundercrack85]

You don't think Trump has a decent shot at the nomination? Because I do.

I was the one who kept saying, he'll start going down in the polls. I was confident that Bush would start doing better as Trump got more and more offensive. But nope. Bush is in what? 6th place? He has become the punchline of late show talk shows, and even his own campaign has compared him to a turtle.

Meanwhile, Trump has said everything short of a racial slur, and is still in the lead. The guy who shut down the federal government is in second place and a crazy doctor who thinks Obama might cancel the elections is in fourth. Which means if and when Cruz and Carson drops out, Trump will actually get a significant boost.

 

[Kelly]

If Trump is still leading in July then I will say yes, he has a shot.

 

[MaceB]

Do you guys really think so? If the GOP base really wanted to win, that would be a huge mistake. I'd say those two plus Carson are, ironically, the least electable clowns in the Clown Car for the general.

I kept thinking Rubio would take off now - probably the most electable candidate - but it hasn't happened yet.

You're thinking this is your dads GOP. It isn't. The GOP base today is mostly composed of southerners, evangelicals, and white elites. They don't want to win. They want to take their country back. They want to make a statement. People are buying the lie that it's just GOP politicians who are degenerates. Well they got voted in for a reason. The clowns are running the clown car now, and they vote with their gut. None of this liberally educated nonsense, polls and expert opinion is just a bunch of liberal smoke to confuse the issues.

 

[samsnee]

I think this has been a problem for the GOP the last couple of Presidential election cycles and will continue to be so. They have to go so far right to appeal to actually get the nomination. But once they get it, it's tough to pivot back toward the center to get the general vote because all the crazy stuff you said is there on the record.

 

[Victarion]

I don't see why Cruz is doing as well as he is. There's something about him that strikes me as disingenuous. In a televangelist sort of way.

 

[KevanG]

Might explain why he's doing so well.

 

[Thundercrack85]

I don't see why Cruz is doing as well as he is. There's something about him that strikes me as disingenuous. In a televangelist sort of way.

You know that's actually exactly what he reminds me of. His dad is a rather outspoken pastor who wants to send Obama "back to Kenya".

 

[SV Fan]

I don't see why Cruz is doing as well as he is. There's something about him that strikes me as disingenuous. In a televangelist sort of way.

Oh come on he has more a of a used car sales man or ambulance chasing lawyer personality

 

[KevanG]

Hey now Saul Goodman would take offense to that last one.

 

[samsnee]

He's got a weird face. It looks like the sad actor mask face.

 

[Victarion]

Pierrot is what you're thinking of. Trump is his Columbine.

 

[SV Fan]

He's got a weird face. It looks like the sad actor mask face.

I actually think for the most part he is a good speaker and his face is normal but he has this thing that always annoys me is when he tells a joke he has this smile on his face that ok now you people should clap or laugh. When he is talking he is very believable but in that one second you feel like he is full of crap trying to sell snakeoil

Honestly though I hope he wins the Republican primary because of all the Republican candidates I think he will get clobbered the most(even losing states no Republican should be losing like Georgia, Arizona or Montana) and hopefully that will end the era of "we need a true conservative" BS the base likes telling themselves.

 

[Schlosser85]

So Jeb Bush wants to eliminate food stamps and pretty much any form of low income government assistance.

But a lot of the people on those very programs vote Republican?

That's about as head-scratching as the GOP portraying itself as "the Christian Party" when its agenda is 180 degrees opposed to some of Christianity's basic tenets.

 

[summerteeth]

So Jeb Bush wants to eliminate food stamps and pretty much any form of low income government assistance.

But a lot of the people on those very programs vote Republican?

That's about as head-scratching as the GOP portraying itself as "the Christian Party" when its agenda is 180 degrees opposed to some of Christianity's basic tenets.

Easy there...that's not what he's doing. He's ending federal programs but he wants to create block grants to give to the states to create their own welfare programs. I.E. here's x amount of money that you can only spend on welfare programs. So it is inaccurate to say he is eliminating any form of income government assistance. It is also inaccurate to portray this as unChristian. He more or less believes in Federalism and that the states can figure out better solutions than the Federal government. You may not agree with that this is the best policy but it shouldn't be characterized like you are characterizing it because what you are saying just frankly isn't true.

I'm beginning to question the efficacy of low income housing as it functions today. In my area there is a 7 year wait list for low income housing. This is absurd, nobody should be planning to need assistance in 7 years. In that time a skill could be gained that could get them off of assistance.

He's also expanding the EITC to those without children.

 

[SV Fan]

Easy there...that's not what he's doing. He's ending federal programs but he wants to create block grants to give to the states to create their own welfare programs. I.E. here's x amount of money that you can only spend on welfare programs. So it is inaccurate to say he is eliminating any form of income government assistance. It is also inaccurate to portray this as unChristian. He more or less believes in Federalism and that the states can figure out better solutions than the Federal government. You may not agree with that this is the best policy but it shouldn't be characterized like you are characterizing it because what you are saying just frankly isn't true.

The big problem for me is if you give it to the states what is to stop governors taking that money and distributing it to places that favor them in elections(and you know that will happen on both sides). There has to be rules at a federal level how to distribute that cash

 

[summerteeth]

The big problem for me is if you give it to the states what is to stop governors taking that money and distributing it to places that favor them in elections(and you know that will happen on both sides). There has to be rules at a federal level how to distribute that cash

The fact that it is a block grant, that's exactly what they do. They specifically outline how the money can be spent. They can't just spend the money however they want.

 

[SV Fan]

The fact that it is a block grant, that's exactly what they do. They specifically outline how the money can be spent. They can't just spend the money however they want.

They can't spend it however they want but they can pick winners and losers within those limits(ie if I am a Republican Governor in a Red State I could give the bulk of the cash to rural areas, on the flip side say I am the Democratic Governor of Michigan I can put more of that cash into places like Detroit or Flint). You can't tell me their won't be a certain amount of favoritism towards people who are more likely to vote for you with those block grants

 

[summerteeth]

They can't spend it however they want but they can pick winners and losers within those limits(ie if I am a Republican Governor in a Red State I could give the bulk of the cash to rural areas, on the flip side say I am the Democratic Governor of Michigan I can put more of that cash into places like Detroit or Flint). You can't tell me their won't be a certain amount of favoritism towards people who are more likely to vote for you with those block grants

Not really, unless the block grant is written in a way that would allow this which is unlikely. It's not just here's money spend it how you want. It's here's money it has to be spent on a food assistance program. These conditions must be met etc etc etc.

 

[SV Fan]

But a lot of the people on those very programs vote Republican?

Hard to find any article giving solid statistics but this is the best I can find(from 2012)

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/12/18/a-bipartisan-nation-of-beneficiaries/

highlights include:

-Pew Research Center finds that a majority of Americans (55%) have received government benefits from at least one of the six best-known federal entitlement programs.

-The survey also finds that most Democrats (60%) and Republicans (52%) say they have benefited from a major entitlement program at some point in their lives. So have nearly equal shares of self-identifying conservatives (57%), liberals (53%) and moderates (53%).

- The survey finds that among those who voted for President Obama last month, 59% say they’ve benefited from a major entitlement program. It also finds that 53% of those who supported Mitt Romney have benefited from a major entitlement program.

-women are more likely than men to have received an entitlement benefit (61% vs. 49%). Blacks (64%) are more likely than whites (56%) or Hispanics (50%) to have gotten federal help from these programs, and rural residents (62%) are more likely than urban (54%) or suburban (53%) dwellers to have gotten help.