Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

[TeeKay]

Anyway, most of you think this movie will do well just because its from Marvel Studios.

Ummm yes. Slap the MCU label and put 'from the makers of 'Iron man, the Avengers' etc on promotional material and it'll make money. I predict this to make in the range of 400-500 ww. Well the first Iron Man was an unknown property and that bombed. Oh wait......That made over 500 mil ww. If this is marketed properly and if there's good WOM, it'll make money for sure. Saying it's only make around 210 mil ww for an MCU film post the Avengers is a bit ridiculous imo.

 

[psylockolussus]

TeeKay, I already changed my prediction for this movie its not just 210, its now 250 m to 350 m. And Iron Man 1 had the advantage of opening the summer and RDJ was the lead.

Like it or not, the studio logo alone will put people in the theatres. They are almost on the same level as Pixar now.

Do most casual viewers really know which studio is making the film?

All Marvel films such as Elektra, Daredevil, Hulk, Incredible Hulk, Blade movies, Ghost Rider movies had the Marvel logo in the poster but did that really help those movies at the box-office more than the quality and the content of the movie? I don't think so.

 

[TeeKay]

TeeKay, I already changed my prediction for this movie its not just 210, its now 250 m to 350 m. And Iron Man 1 had the advantage of opening the summer and RDJ was the lead.

RDJ's career was really non-existent at that time. He was considered a joke, remember? KKBB had bombed. The first Iron Man film re-vamped RDJ's career.

Do most casual viewers really know which studio is making the film?

All Marvel films such as Elektra, Daredevil, Hulk, Incredible Hulk, Blade movies, Ghost Rider movies had the Marvel logo in the poster but did that really help those movies at the box-office more than the quality and the content of the movie? I don't think so.

Ummm the Blade films were commercially successful. What the heck are you talking about? Hulk underperformed but it wasn't a flop and Marvel Studios did not make any of the films you've mentioned other than TIH. For the record we were talking about the new Marvel Studios logo. You know, this one:

 

[The Endless]

I think it could make around what the first Thor movie made. 400-500 million. That should be considered a pretty big success. I don't think Marvel will be expecting this to make bucket loads. They don't need it to when you figure how much net profit they made from Avengers and IM3.

 

[psylockolussus]

Ummm the Blade films were commercially successful. What the heck are you talking about? Hulk underperformed but it wasn't a flop and Marvel Studios did not make any of the films you've mentioned other than TIH. For the record we were talking about the new Marvel Studios logo. You know, this one:

Yeah the top grossing Blade film earned $155 million worldwide then you hammered me with my $210 million prediction for Guardians of the Galaxy. LOL okay.

And I didn't say Incredible Hulk flopped. But obviously, not everything from Marvel is gonna earn more than 350 million per film, it didn't happen in the past and who knows in the future, when Marvel Studios starts releasing films for Iron Fist, Luke Cage, they could be grossing lower than 350 million.

And that new studio logo is ONLY really noticeable when you are already inside the theater and the film starts rolling, heck some people don't even care if they see a studio's flashy logo at the start of the movie.

 

[mkilban2]

It's not the logo that people recognize its the name recognition. You put "brought to you by the guys who gave you Iron Man 3 and The Avengers" and some people will see it just for the relation to continue seeing the films under tha umbrella. Then throw in Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Bradley Cooper (as a bad ass furry raccoon, hello kids!), the whole all based in space thing and that's going to draw a lot of attention. Then throw in word of mouth if its recieced well critically.

I think 500mil is what I voted the other day, seems reasonable and financially successful. I don't think I see it doing under 350m.

Plus, does it have much competition around it? I'm not sure of what else is coming out in the weeks before, during, or after.

 

[rashad]

TMNT (Aug 8)
The Expendables 3 (Aug 15)

 

[mkilban2]

TMNT will give it a run for its money in week two for sure. I'm stupidly bad at estimating numbers because they don't matter to me at all, but I'm guessing a strong opening weekend and week, maybe coming in second in week two since the crowds at GotG and TMNT will be similar people.

I think 400-500m WW is fair. But I don't care about the numbers, I'm locked in to see Pratt star in a movie and the MCU connections and ramifications. The money's gunna be there.

 

[The Endless]

Yea the simple fact is, I never in a million years would have thought we'd see a GotG film. So whatever happens at the box office means nothing to me as long as the film is good. And with the talent behind it and what i've seen so far, i'm very confident it will be.

 

[TeeKay]

Yeah the top grossing Blade film earned $155 million worldwide then you hammered me with my $210 million prediction for Guardians of the Galaxy. LOL okay.

Look at the budget for the highest Blade film. Also, Marvel Studios didn't make the Blade trilogy. So whhy do you keep bringing it up? 210 is very low for an MCU film. Even TIH didn't gross that low and it's the lowest grossing MCU film to date. GOTG will make over 300 mil. I just don't see it flopping.

And I didn't say Incredible Hulk flopped. But obviously, not everything from Marvel is gonna earn more than 350 million per film, it didn't happen in the past and who knows in the future, when Marvel Studios starts releasing films for Iron Fist, Luke Cage, they could be grossing lower than 350 million.

It didn't happen in the past because the MCU was only just starting out, now that they're an established brand. I honestly don't see any of their films flopping at all.

And that new studio logo is ONLY really noticeable when you are already inside the theater and the film starts rolling, heck some people don't even care if they see a studio's flashy logo at the start of the movie.

We'll see. Let's make a bet, if GOTG flops, I'll change my avatar to anything you want but if it doesn't. You have to change your avatar to anything MCU related. How's that?

 

[Spider-Fan]

I think this will make Cap:TFA type numbers. Thor type numbers on high end. I don't see it cracking 500mil. Either high 300's, or low to mid 400's.

 

[psylockolussus]

Look at the budget for the highest Blade film. Also, Marvel Studios didn't make the Blade trilogy. So whhy do you keep bringing it up? 210 is very low for an MCU film. Even TIH didn't gross that low and it's the lowest grossing MCU film to date. GOTG will make over 300 mil. I just don't see it flopping.

It didn't happen in the past because the MCU was only just starting out, now that they're an established brand. I honestly don't see any of their films flopping at all.

We'll see. Let's make a bet, if GOTG flops, I'll change my avatar to anything you want but if it doesn't. You have to change your avatar to anything MCU related. How's that?

Read my post again, I said those Blade films and the other CBM films that had a logo of Marvel in the poster but just because it had a Marvel logo in the post, it doesn't mean they will automatically earn super big numbers at the box-office. The Marvel logo wasn't enough to bring audience for those films to earn $350 million worldwide smash or at least $250 million since they had a lower budget compare to the CBM films now. Its the same thing with this "Marvel Studios brand". Most of the general audience aren't gonna watch GOTG because its from Marvel Studios. They wouldn't care especially the Avenger characters aren't even the lead characters of the movie.

And I didn't say GOTG will flop. Just because I gave a "low" box-office prediction it doesn't mean that its already a flop for me. I don't even know the budget for the film is. Maybe if its budget is over $150 million then lower than $300 million might look bad for the film.

And I'm not accepting your bet, I came here merely to post my thoughts, not to bet with people just to prove that my opinions are correct.

 

[TeeKay]

Read my post again, I said those Blade films and the other CBM films that had a logo of Marvel in the poster but just because it had a Marvel logo in the post, it doesn't mean they will automatically earn super big numbers at the box-office. The Marvel logo wasn't enough to bring audience for those films to earn $350 million worldwide smash or at least $250 million since they had a lower budget compare to the CBM films now. Its the same thing with this "Marvel Studios brand". Most of the general audience aren't gonna watch GOTG because its from Marvel Studios. They wouldn't care especially the Avenger characters aren't even the lead characters of the movie.

And I didn't say GOTG will flop. Just because I gave a "low" box-office prediction it doesn't mean that its already a flop for me. I don't even know the budget for the film is. Maybe if its budget is over $150 million then lower than $300 million might look bad for the film.

And I'm not accepting your bet, I came here merely to post my thoughts, not to bet with people just to prove that my opinions are correct.

We'll see. Just because it doesn't have any of the Avengers characters doesn't mean it won't do well at the B.O. Like may have stated, just say 'from the studio that brought you the Avengers' etc. That will put people in seats.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Of course it will make over 300 million. Not even a question. If its totally meh it will still probably make 350 plus WW thanks to expanded markets (Asia and SA). Just the way it is.

That said, if GotG struggles to get to 350, Id say that would put a sequel up in the air. And I think a number like that would reflect a less than stellar product.

My feeling is that if the movie is good, it will be a big hit. If its great, if Rocket does what we all hope he does, we are talking mega hit. Thats my take.

And yeah using Blade to make a point in this context makes zero sense. An R-rated vampire movie made before Marvel Studios even existed has no bearing on this discussion. Sorry.

 

[The Endless]

Did people even realise Blade was a comic book movie? I know i didn't. I just thought it was a bad ass vampire hunter movie with Wesley Snipes.

 

[TeeKay]

Did people even realise Blade was a comic book movie? I know i didn't. I just thought it was a bad ass vampire hunter movie with Wesley Snipes.

I didn't either.

 

[mkilban2]

400ww will probably be a pretty solid hit in the eyes of Mavel and what not. Not sure of the budget but if they double it and add like 100-150 more I think that's a pretty good number.

I mean it is a pretty strange movie, something on concept alone I would never go see. But if its got cool trailers and TV spots and they beef up on the "From Avengers and tied into the universe" type stuff I can see people getting on board with it outside of their comfort zone.

I have a friend who has seen and likes IM1,3 and Thor2 but doesn't even care to see Avengers. So you never know what's gunna happen haha.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Cap: TFA made 370 WW. It got a sequel. As long as GotG sniffs 400ww (or tops out somewhere over 350), I think a sequel is safe. Now, its success may decide whether GotG2 is a Phase 3 film or a Phase 4 film.

 

[mkilban2]

I just hope Chris Pratt does a killer job and is well recieved, I'd love to see him in more stuff!

 

[Wildcard]

Ultimately, I think how well this film does will be determined by how well executed the film itself is. If the ideas within the movie are presented well, & offers something worthwhile, I can see it doing high numbers. Hopefully they'll really play to their strength of being a group that is space bound. It'll offer viewers a breather from heroes with exploits occurring on Earth.

 

[fixxxer]

In a post-Avengers world, I don't think under $400 mill is unlikely. I'm thinking anywhere between $400 mill and $600 mill depending on the usual variables... primarily trailer quality and film quality (reviews + word of mouth).

 

[The Endless]

Yea one thing is for certain, this needs a great set of trailers and inventive marketing. If Marvel/Disney knock it out of the park with the marketing, it could be a surprise mega hit.

I think they'll take advantage of it being World Cup year. Billions watch the World Cup, obviously not all at once, but i'm sure there will be tv spots.

 

[Repulsor Blast]

Total Film UK predicts this will make 1.1 billion

 

[fixxxer]

Total Film UK predicts this will make 1.1 billion

Haha. I would wager against that in a hurry. Half of that... $550 mill would be an absolute success for Marvel. I think with really good WOM/reviews coupled with a good trailer/marketing campaign, that figure is achievable.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Total Film UK predicts this will make 1.1 billion

i want what they're smoking. must be the same stuff Gunn is on.

not that i wouldn't be happy if that happened. link to the prediction?