Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

[Son of Coul]

Avatar's gonna tank. Unknown property with cartoony CG and a derivative story? Gimme a break. The GA knows nothing about it - it's an unheard-of, untested property. How are they supposed to know to go see something they've never heard of before? What are they, functional human beings or something?

Wait, what thread are we in?

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

over the last couple of days I witnessed something strange. since I'm the go to guy when it comes to comics, movies and combinations of those, I heard the question 'when does guardians of the galaxy come out?' a lot. and when I say a lot, I mean A LOT! today I was asked about this movie 3 times (co-worker, guy at my university and my boss), probably about 20 times from various friends and relatives over the last week (and a very small percentage of them usually care about Marvel movies at all). when I watched TWS for the third time last thursday, I went with a group of friends. after the movie we went for a drink and I was fully prepared to talk about them about what happend in the movie, who the twin were etc. etc. our talk started that way, but 5 minutes in, the first friend asked about the release date for gotg and we spent the rest of the evening talking about the gotg and especially rocket.
yesterday I was at the shopping mall and heard a complete stranger (female, approx. 50 years old) singing 'hooked on a feeling'. this can't be coincidence.

 

[warhorse78]

over the last couple of days I witnessed something strange. since I'm the go to guy when it comes to comics, movies and combinations of those, I heard the question 'when does guardians of the galaxy come out?' a lot. and when I say a lot, I mean A LOT! today I was asked about this movie 3 times (co-worker, guy at my university and my boss), probably about 20 times from various friends and relatives over the last week (and a very small percentage of them usually care about Marvel movies at all). when I watched TWS for the third time last thursday, I went with a group of friends. after the movie we went for a drink and I was fully prepared to talk about them about what happend in the movie, who the twin were etc. etc. our talk started that way, but 5 minutes in, the first friend asked about the release date for gotg and we spent the rest of the evening talking about the gotg and especially rocket.
yesterday I was at the shopping mall and heard a complete stranger (female, approx. 50 years old) singing 'hooked on a feeling'. this can't be coincidence.

Thanks to the trailer, I bought the mp3 of Hooked on a Feeling. Maybe it could be the breakout Hangover of this year.

 

[KangConquers]

Guardians of the Galaxy is just not well known enough to gross over 400 million and the release date is not really strong. If this was being released in May, my predictions would have been higher. And its not like the lead characters of GOTG already appeared in The Avengers. Thor appeared in The Avengers and his post-Avengers film got 206 million in the U.S. I don't see GOTG it being close to the Dark World's domestic gross.

You using Star Trek '09's inability to break $400 M as proof that Guardians can't do it completely disregards that A) Star Trek is a weak foreign property. B) Paramount doesn't have the greatest foreign track record. C) Your filtering your view of ST '09 through American/ Western perceptions.

No one is saying that GoTG is going to match that films $257 M domestic. But it would be pretty damn hard to imagine a scenario where it doesn't trounce that films $127 M foreign. Even Disney bombs The Lone Ranger and John Carter far exceeded Star Trek's take. Disney is just a stronger foreign presence as a studio than Paramount. The absolute foreign floor for this film is $200 M.


The film has way too high of a social media index, way too high of a youtube view, way too much promotion going into it, to only gross your claimed $100 M domestic. That's just not happening. Despite your feelings, this trailer has not been met with the universal "meh" feeling that say, Green Lantern was.

I'm not saying under $400 M is impossible, but I think your predicted $290 is impossible. The low end for this will be $350 M.

 

[The Endless]

290 million worldwide? lol do me a favour. I think this will be in the same ball park as the first Thor and Iron Man. Around 450-550 million worldwide.

 

[psylockolussus]

Avatar's gonna tank. Unknown property with cartoony CG and a derivative story? Gimme a break. The GA knows nothing about it - it's an unheard-of, untested property. How are they supposed to know to go see something they've never heard of before? What are they, functional human beings or something?

Wait, what thread are we in?

Avatar is not the same case though. Its an original material, was released in the holidays and directed by well-profiled director.

If James Cameron is directing this film, of course I would give a higher prediction but James Gunn? This is not one of those films where people go see a film because of a well-known director.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Nope, one of those films that people go see because they believe in Marvel Studios.

 

[DA_Champion]

I predict 650 million worldwide.

 

[DA_Champion]

Ultimately, the budget will determine what's a success for GoTG. As long as they kept the budget in the $150 M range, it should be able to make money back and prove sequel worthy.

I still say Rise of the Planet of the Apes is a great example of what a successful GoTG film would gross. That film came out in early August of 2011, and grossed $176 M DOM and $305 M foreign. Assuming Guardians budget is $170 M or less, that would be qualified as a big success.

There's a danger of setting ourselves up for disappointment with $600 M predictions. It's the same ball game as Thor: The Dark World, with last years $800-$1 B predictions, and the disappointment that followed when the film "underperformed." If Guardians of the Galaxy can match the first Thor film, Disney should be giddy.

Thor 2 under performed because it was ****, it has a 56% score among top critics, the worst of all MCU films by a heft margin I think. If GoTG is that bad it will under perform as well, but there's no reason to expect it to be awful.

However, the jokes in the preview were really bad, so who knows. I preferred the Thor 2 after-the-credits scene.

It looks like a beautiful movie though. I appreciate that Marvel is finally trying on the cinematography front.

 

[DA_Champion]

I don't think a disaster of this proportion is possible given the strength of the Marvel brand.

Marvel under Disney is currently averaging nearly $1 Billion a film (Avengers to present.) I have no doubts Guardians of the Galaxy is going to be the lowest grossing Disney/ Marvel film thus far, but that doesn't mean it's going to be a Green Lantern.

Your Star Trek comparison is off in that Star Trek is a notoriously weak brand abroad, and had no 3-D advantage. Paramount also has a poor track record abroad. A well reviewed Star Trek: Into Darkness grossed roughly the same as a poorly reviewed, no name propertly like John Carter in foreign markets.

You're basically predicting another JC. The Marvel Studios brand alone guarantees that this movie will do 25-30% better than John Carter's $280 M ww. Some people will show up simply because this is Marvel Studios, and it's attached to the Avengers in some way.

I think the floor for this film, assuming a typical Marvel Studios tomato meter of 75%ish, is $150 M domestic / $225 M foreign. The ceiling is probably $200 Domestic/ $300 M foreign, unless it hits some sort of pop culture nerve.

I have a somewhat different interpretation of Green Lantern.

My interpretation: If a comic book space opera that is that bad could gross 220 million worldwide, imagine what a good comic book space opera could gross?

 

[KangConquers]

I have a somewhat different interpretation of Green Lantern.

My interpretation: If a comic book space opera that is that bad could gross 220 million worldwide, imagine what a good comic book space opera could gross?

True. I'm still not sure it will match Thor: The Dark World or Captain America: The First Avenger, but Thor 1 should be well in reach, with Iron Man 1 numbers being a possible high end.

 

[chiefchirpa]

Avatar is not the same case though. Its an original material, was released in the holidays and directed by well-profiled director.

If James Cameron is directing this film, of course I would give a higher prediction but James Gunn? This is not one of those films where people go see a film because of a well-known director.

GOTG has the Marvel logo up in front. Outside of the US, Marvel is more famous than someone named James Cameron.

 

[KangConquers]

I do have to say, if Guardians of the Galaxy is a $500 M + Hit, Disney will up the # of Marvel movies to at least three a year. an Unknown property like GoTG breaking $500 M would confirm that Disney has a license to print money in Marvel.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Wait did someone just predict $200 million os for this movie? Lol not a fan eh?

At least come up with a plausible somewhat reality based prediction if you're gonna play that game. Something worth debating.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

Wait did someone just predict $200 million os for this movie? Lol not a fan eh?

At least come up with a plausible somewhat reality based prediction if you're gonna play that game. Something worth debating.

There are several known trolls amongst the 2 lowest options so no surprise there.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

GotG is sorta the last chance for Marvel naysayers, especially in the wake of the phenomenal worldwide success of TWS. Its low hanging fruit because the property is new and relatively unknown. Sad really.

 

[Brutalitops]

GotG is sorta the last chance for Marvel naysayers, especially in the wake of the phenomenal worldwide success of TWS. Its low hanging fruit because the property is new and relatively unknown. Sad really.

Then again, there are some people who just will never stop being naysayers, whether it's because they like to play contrarian or have some sort of victim syndrome. There are some people who consistently pop up in each Marvel Box Office Prediction Thread, make some lowball prediction claiming this will be Marvel's first bomb, then backtrack when they are proven wrong and called our for it. It will always occur, I doubt GotG stops it. Watch when Dr. Strange comes around. "Audiences won't want to see magic, blah blah blah." "The Sorcerer's Apprentice made X amount, so Doctor Strange can only make a little more than X amount."

 

[The Endless]

Wow people actually voted for under 200 mill worldwide. How absurd. Less than the likes of John Carter and The Lone Ranger? hahaha

 

[metaphysician]

Then again, there are some people who just will never stop being naysayers, whether it's because they like to play contrarian or have some sort of victim syndrome. There are some people who consistently pop up in each Marvel Box Office Prediction Thread, make some lowball prediction claiming this will be Marvel's first bomb, then backtrack when they are proven wrong and called our for it. It will always occur, I doubt GotG stops it. Watch when Dr. Strange comes around. "Audiences won't want to see magic, blah blah blah." "The Sorcerer's Apprentice made X amount, so Doctor Strange can only make a little more than X amount."

You'll also see more of the "superhero movie bubble" canard. If the movies are successful, clearly that's a sign that this is an unnatural fad that will soon collapse.

Granted, I would expect to see more radically irrational behavior as well: loud and fervent declamations of everything except ____ as "meaningless popcorn fluff". . . oh, wait, we have that already. Increasingly creepy TDK worship. . . no, we have that already. Hmm. . .

 

[Destructus86]

When I first heard about the film I thought it would be a HUGE risk for Marvel...not enough people who get it...it would be too out there for them.

Then I showed the trailer to various people...especially non-geeky types. And every single one of them loved it. So, I suspect this film is going to be huge.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

Then again, there are some people who just will never stop being naysayers, whether it's because they like to play contrarian or have some sort of victim syndrome. There are some people who consistently pop up in each Marvel Box Office Prediction Thread, make some lowball prediction claiming this will be Marvel's first bomb, then backtrack when they are proven wrong and called our for it. It will always occur, I doubt GotG stops it. Watch when Dr. Strange comes around. "Audiences won't want to see magic, blah blah blah." "The Sorcerer's Apprentice made X amount, so Doctor Strange can only make a little more than X amount."

"Foreign audiences hate the US so a Cap movie is certain to bomb."

 

[KangConquers]

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3826&p=.htm

Box Office Mojo is predicting $180 M Domestic / $250 M foreign for a Thor-like $430 M. I'm going to stick with a Planet of the Apes matching $480 M ww.

 

[marcvader]

Going with $420 ww.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I'm sticking with $600 m WW Something tells me this thing is going to be huge! Tons of my friends who aren't into comics keep asking me about it and the social media response has been insane. This is going to be the thing that puts Marvel into it's own category and will allow them to start making 3-4 a year which is fantastic

 

[Visualiza]

I'm still gonna err on the conservative side and stick with 300, no more (or not much more) than 400.

If this movie takes off, however, it will solidify the MCU brand, bar none.