Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

[metaphysician]

The death of Frigga was anything, but random. They paid a large amount of respect to how they treated it.

Random deaths are like what happened in DOFP. People who show up for two seconds just to die.

Or worse, like in Man of Steel, where countless bystanders are slaughtered without any significance granted at all.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Or worse, like in Man of Steel, where countless bystanders are slaughtered without any significance granted at all.

I guess you did not watch The Avengers or TDW.

 

[Son of Coul]

Not to derail, but there was lots of significance granted in The Avengers, full parts of the battle/gameplan dedicated to securing a perimeter and evacuating citizens from it. That was actually a highlight for me, personally.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Not to derail, but there was lots of significance granted in The Avengers, full parts of the battle/gameplan dedicated to securing a perimeter and evacuating citizens from it. That was actually a highlight for me, personally.

Yes it is off topic, so I do not know why it gets brought up randomly in Marvel threads repeatedly. And honestly, I do not understand why a bit of lip service to the idea, chances that the Battle of New York ends with jokes and badassery, instead of the fact that hundreds, if not thousands were just killed in the city because the Avengers let Loki escape. Not that I complain about that, I don't. I love the scene.

 

[kedrell]

As for repeating at #1 in it's second weekend, I'm thinking the odds are 2-to-1 or a 3-to-1 against it. So, not exactly insurmountable but it will be quite the uphill climb. All this of course is predicated on the guess that it sticks to that $60M OW they're predicting. If that changes then it's all up in the air.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I guess you did not watch The Avengers or TDW.

Well at the end of TA they did show people holding out candles for the deceased. Whereas in MOS it kind of just ended without mentioning the countless deaths, as far as I remember.

Has tracking gotten higher by any chance? Kind of hoping for a $70 million OW.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I still think Guardians will be Marvel's next worldwide billion dollar hit when it comes out in just 6 more days left to go. Here are my reasons why:

1) The return of Thanos from "Avengers" who will be voiced by Josh Brolin this time.
2) The fact that GOTG sets up Avengers 3 with Thanos and the Infinity Gauntlet and the Avengers and Guardians teaming up to stop Thanos.
3) The positive buzz, overwhelmingly positive reviews by the critics, save for 1 or 2 negative reviews. Well, 1 negative review, considering RT won't count the Rope of Silicon review.
4) The president of IMAX thinks Guardians will overperform in its opening weekend, which has me hopeful it'll break past $100 million or more in it's opening weekend. I'm predicting it'll be either $100.5 million or $105 million, but it would surprise me if Guardians makes $120 million or $125 million in its opening weekend. Here's link for proof: http://www.thewrap.com/imax-predicts-big-things-for-guardians-of-the-galaxy-as-q2-earnings-increase/.
5) It's only 2 hours long, which should give the GA a movie that fits how long they wanna be in the theater.
6) And, the big reason why is because of the "big" star of the movie, Rocket Raccoon (voiced by Bradley Cooper).

And, if I enjoy the movie, I'll give it 5 stars.

And, if it does make a billion or more worldwide, here are my three predictions:

1) $300 million domestically and $800 million internationally = $1.1 billion to match Total Film Magazine's prediction.
2) $350 million domestically and $650 million internationally = $1 billion
3) $300 million domestically and $700 million internationally = $1 billion

 

[Ghostcrow13]

^ The GA doesn't know the top two things, even some of the critics don't know that the 'macguffins' are leading somewhere.

No film has ever earned more than 70m in its OW in August, so for it to get 100m would be ridiculous(ly amazing)

Big stars don't pull in viewers any more, look at Edge of Tomorrow and in no way is Bradley Cooper anywhere near Tom Cruise, let alone he is only doing the voice.

GOTG will do amazing if it gets more than 500 mill, let's not set the standard at a billion

 

[Zarex]

Box Office.com has increased their estimate for GOTG's domestic take. The opening weekend haul of $68 million has been increased to $73 million, and the total US box office is expected to be $210 million, up from $187 million.

 

[Keyser Soze]

I don't know how big the opening will be, but I certainly think Guardians of the Galaxy has the chance to show great legs at the box office, between people rewatching it and through strong word-of-mouth, making it a kind of "event film" that people feel compelled to see just to join the discussion. And really, it's a film's long-term legs rather than the opening weekend splash that truly marks out the big box office success stories.

 

[Nokio]

I can say honestly that i don't know about this one. i've been pretty good about predicting box office but I'm lost on this ine. I wanna say it'll make 150 mil domestically, maybe get to 160 mil, and with WW gross it'll probably get to 500 mil maybe 600. I don't know, the trailers and scenes that Ive seen have been so so and it looks like it'll be lucky if it makesa 75 million domestically. I know the movie will more then likly be good but I just don't see it appealing to the broad audience. I may be wrong but still don't see it.

 

[Nokio]

Or worse, like in Man of Steel, where countless bystanders are slaughtered without any significance granted at all.

That was real world with the attack that ZOD did. I didn't see it not having any significance, in fact they may have did it better the in Avengers. It was very much real world.

 

[The Endless]

That was real world with the attack that ZOD did. I didn't see it not having any significance, in fact they may have did it better the in Avengers. It was very much real world.

Not really. It was like in an isolated bubble. There was no aftermath or reactions to Superman or the Metropolis disaster. Even the battle in Smallville seemed inconsequential because there was no reaction or aftermath.

Avengers did it better because we see the Avengers actively trying to minimize casualties and the spread of the Chitauri. Then at the end we see the worlds reactions to the events. Some are supportive of the Avengers, some are suspicious.

Man of Steel just ends all of a sudden. It goes from a solemn scene where Superman has had to kill someone... to a cheery scene where he joins the Daily Planet in a seemingly restored Metropolis some unknown amount of time later.

Fact is, the battle of Metropolis is inconsequential. They are saving it all for the sequel. But for me that isn't good enough. I shouldn't have to wait for the sequel to see the complete story arc.

 

[metaphysician]

Yes it is off topic, so I do not know why it gets brought up randomly in Marvel threads repeatedly. And honestly, I do not understand why a bit of lip service to the idea, chances that the Battle of New York ends with jokes and badassery, instead of the fact that hundreds, if not thousands were just killed in the city because the Avengers let Loki escape. Not that I complain about that, I don't. I love the scene.

Its because the narrative actually acknowledged such as happening, and being important. Whereas in Man of Steel, there is really never even a hint that people are in those buildings that got leveled, or that any of that matters. And then the *immediate* next scene after the fight is over is. . . Clark making out with Lois over top of the giant crater where Metropolis used to be?

( It also helps that the Avengers actually *did* save New York City. It suffered damage, but the city is still there. Metropolis. . . is as devastated as if it had a nuke go off in it. )

 

[Suzanne78]

Yay, can we talk again how the new BO.com projections have GOTG IN THE $72 million range for OW, and $210 million total DOM?

That's more like it! Now with Marvel confirming a sequel for 2017, I wonder if their own internal tracking for the movie is even higher?

 

[metaphysician]

So, if GOTG does 210M domestic. . . what would we probably be looking at WW? 600+?

 

[Flint Marko]

So, if GOTG does 210M domestic. . . what would we probably be looking at WW? 600+?

No idea, but that would be astounding. I wish I knew more about this box office number stuff to really get a feel for everything.

 

[The Endless]

200 mill US 300 mill international would be great and totally attainable.

 

[XtremelyBaneful]

thank god, a poll i can actually vote on.

 

[XtremelyBaneful]

the 1 billion option should have been available, alas, i voted the highest, 800m.

 

[Flint Marko]

Hate to rain on your parade but the odds are slim to none that it will make a billion. Awesome as that would be haha.

 

[Wrath]

No idea, but that would be astounding. I wish I knew more about this box office number stuff to really get a feel for everything.

I've become inexplicably obsessed with this movie in a way that hasn't happened since Watchmen (I'm an unapologetic fanboy for Watchmen, and still remember it blowing my mind when I read it back in the '80s) and have been lurking on these forums after stumbling upon them a couple weeks ago.

Initially I would have guessed $400M+ globally and considered that a pretty positive result. In part that's because I was just picking a number out of the air, and in part because I didn't want to jinx things by shooting at where I *wanted* the number to come in.

Since then, I've given this quite a bit of thought, did a little number crunching, and formally registered so that I could put in my vote of $600M+. More precisely, I think it'll come in at $650-680M.

Here's why:

Bear in mind that I'm not in the movie industry in any meaningful way (my brother does film editing but he knows nothing about box office estimation), nor am I a statistician. However I'm pretty good with numbers and it all ends up being surprisingly straightforward. This is a bit long and detailed, but I suspect this is a thread with a number of folks who might find this interesting.

Opening weekend domestic estimates have ranged from $40-110M which doesn't really matter except to set the ultimate trajectory for domestic gross. Lets start with $70M (which is at or very slightly below boxoffice.com's estimate, and feels, if anything, slightly conservative given how reviews and word of mouth are doing. Heck, Lucy will put up mid 40s despite mediocre reviews and word of mouth while competing with the better than expected Hercules. GotG has only the 2nd week of those two to compete against, plus vastly better reviews. It should mop the floor with whatever Lucy ends up posting).

Opening Domestic Weekend: $70M

Now, how does this translate into total domestic gross? Lets look at how previous comic book adaptions have done.

I picked out the top 25 or so grossing comic book adaption movies and compared how their domestic gross compared to their opening weekend take. The ratio was surprisingly consistent, averaging at about 2.8.

The highest ratio was SM2 at 4.25 while the worst was Wolverine at 2.12. I assume strength of competition was a substantial factor but I didn't feel like digging through release dates and then come up with a metric so I just recognized that it would be a factor.

However, another point that caught my eye was that better movies tend to have a higher multiple than worse movies using RT ratings as a guide.

5 Movies with RT ratings of 90 or higher and their multiples:
SM2 - 94 - 4.25
Dark Knight - 94 - 3.39
IM - 93 - 3.21
Avengers - 92 - 3.01
DoFP - 92 - 2.54

So 4 of the 5 came in well above the average (2.80), and the 5th didn't miss by all that much.

On the lower end, the 5 worst scoring RT movies (a 63 or lower) and their multiples:
FF - 27 - 2.77
Wolverine - 38 - 2.12
MoS - 55 - 2.49
XMLS - 55 - 2.27
SM3 - 63 - 2.22

So all 5 came in under the average. FF is kind of an outlier, but IIRC it opened against pretty weak competition, and the other 4 came in *well* below the average.

Eyeballing the chart looks like the equation is around a base multiple of around 2.7 and then each 1% RT rating over or under 75% adds or subtracts about 2% off your multiple. I ran a quick regression but it ended up with huge errors because of the 1 big outlier:

- ASM with a 73% RT rating and a 4.22 multiple

Looking back, I probably should have just excluded ASM and rerun the numbers. Oh well, maybe later.

Anyway, lets get back to GotG. Its RT% is awesome so far, but presumably won't remain there. Lets say it drops to 85%. That gives us:

2.7 + (85-75)*.02 = 2.7 + .2 = 2.90

With an opening weekend of $70M, we're talking $203M domestically. This should then be adjusted for strength of competition, which based on nothing but my gut feeling seems about average so I'll leave it at $203M. So far, I doubt much of this is a surprise. Now lets get to the punchy part, Overseas.

 

[Flint Marko]

Wow, thanks for the indepth post! I look forward to the second part, I like where it's going. Welcome to the hype Wrath.

 

[Wrath]

Now, overseas box office.

*THE* big change in movie revenue over the last few years has been the rise of overseas box office. Before looking into the numbers, I had no idea how much this has changed in the last 10 years or so.

Over the entire group of movies, OS revenue came in at 1.36x domestic revenue but its strongly influenced by year.

2011 - 2014 release
Best multiple: DoFP - 2.2
Worst multiple: CAFA - 1.1
Average multiple: 1.63

2002 - 2010 release
Best multiple: SM3 1.65
Worst multiple: IM 0.84
Average multiple: 1.05

So, the best multiple from 2002-2010 was barely ahead of the average from 2011-2014, and the worst multiple from 2011-2014 was ahead of the average from 2002-2010.

Second, sequels may do better than original titles, though this could be a function of release dates. Here's some examples:

CAFA - 1.1
CA:TWS - 1.75

IM - 0.84
IM2 - 1.00
IM3 - 1.97

SM - 1.03
SM2 - 1.10
SM3 - 1.65
ASM - 1.89

Thor - 1.48
TDW - 2.13

DK - 0.88
DKR - 1.42

I think I've made the point.

So, here's the big conclusion. International box office is now huge and while it certainly varies from movie to movie, high grossing comic book adaptations seem to have been well received internationally (I didn't bother looking into Green Lantern or the like, but even FF did ok making 112% overseas as it did domestically) and the trend is getting stronger over time.

GotG even conservatively should reasonably come in somewhat stronger than the 2011-2014 average multiple. Lets say around 1.8, around the same as CATWS, but weaker than TDW or DoFP.

We end up with an expected global box office of:

203 * (1+1.8) = 203*2.8 = $568M

And this assumes we use moderately conservative assumptions at every single step. If we use the same methodology, but assume moderately optimistic assumptions (lets say $80M opening weekend, 90% RT, and a 2.0 domestic-international multiple) we get:

80 * (2.7+(15*.02)) * (2.0 + 1.0) =

80 * 3 * 3 =

= $720M

Personally, I think that's a little high. I think it'll open at $75M, end up at 90% RT, and do a domestic to international multiple of 1.9 which ends up around $650M.

So, in conclusion, a global BO over $500M is far more of a sure thing than I'd have thought. Missing that number requires some extraordinarily pessimistic assumptions to even be possible. And $800M, which I originally thought was absurdly, ludicrously high... still remains absurdly high, but I now have to concede that its actually possible. In fact, I'd say an $800M global total is more likely than a $400M global total. Wow.

PS - Yes, even I recognized at the time that Watchmen sucked. I think that's part of why my original GotG estimates were as low as they were. Still not sure why I'm so into this flick. I'm still in comics but I've still never read GotG.

PS - On the original list of 25ish movies, I mostly took top box office, but I excluded ones that fundamentally seemed different. The stuff I excluded included: All the MiB moves, 300, and anything before 2000 (the original Batman and Superman franchises).

 

[Docker2.0]

OMG! And you are not a statistician?! Whatever you do for a living, you are in the wrong field! But good work though sir!