Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread

[Gamma Burst]

Yes, there's no hype. Even the tracking by boxoffice.com (from twitter and facebook) shows it's quite below x-men FC and Thor.

 

[dark_b]

$3.35 million from midnight grosses. Off to an OK start but one shouldn't take midnight numbers to heart as translating to terrible or great opening weekends overall.

i think fans like us like to run into the theater.

lets see weekend and the whole week how GL will do.

i think fanboys will be destroyed if GL makes a lot of money. they dont like movies that make a lot of money and bad reviews. hehehehe

 

[Showtime]

Yes, there's no hype. Even the tracking by boxoffice.com (from twitter and facebook) shows it's quite below x-men FC and Thor.

Not saying Green Lantern is going to perform good or bad, but I wouldn't pay much attention to tracking either way.

 

[Marvin]

I'd say the movie must have been an improvement over Johns' comics

no doubt

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

$3.35 million from midnight grosses. Off to an OK start but one shouldn't take midnight numbers to heart as translating to terrible or great opening weekends overall.

Thats around what First Class and Thor did. I'm thinking 55 to 65mil now but it could go higher or lower than those numbers.

 

[DarkKnight88]

Yes, there's no hype. Even the tracking by boxoffice.com (from twitter and facebook) shows it's quite below x-men FC and Thor.

That's why its midnight were higher than Thor and around the same for X-Men. I don't know what it's going to do on the weekend but come on. Tracking is never right. Of course there must be some form of hype.

 

[chaseter]

55 opening weekend. It will do a little less than what X-Men has done domestic. There won't be tons of repeat viewings on this. I would guess 125 or so domestic total.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Tracking is pointless. I remember when First Class opened with 70mil...oh wait? That never happened!

The midnights might not mean anything. The movie could still do low numbers off of that midnight number or high numbers...we just don't know yet.

 

[chaseter]

Tracking? I am making a guess. WOM will kill this. 55 opening weekend with a 60% or so drop next weekend.

 

[Showtime]

Midnight numbers are only relevant if you see that the general public is attending these films. 3.5 Million is only fans.

 

[chaseter]

Midnight numbers are only relevant if you see that the general public is attending these films. 3.5 Million is only fans.

And from all the reviews, I am going to guess that there won't be a ton of repeat viewings from those that went to the midnight screening.

I am sure only fans went to see Thor and X-Men at midnight and they had about the same midnight openings. The only difference between these three films is word of mouth at this point. Thor and X-Men sold the same number of tickets but Thor had 3D sales to put it's total over X-Men. That may help GL out a bit but I think bad WOM will offset that and it will have a huge drop next weekend.

 

[Tony Stark]

It's honestly more important how it holds next weekend, then how it does this weekend, but for a film that's going up against stiff competition the next two weeks, the higher the better.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Word of mouth is so great on First Class and yet it still dropped 56.2%?

I'm not trying to kick First Class when it's down because I loved the film but it's not doing amazingly despite that so-called great word of mouth and Thor didn't break any records either. It did good enough numbers for a sequel though.

I wouldn't be surprised to see 18mil for GL or 30mil to be honest. I'm expecting somethin in between.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Word of mouth is so great on First Class and yet it still dropped 56.2%?

Pretty much.

 

[The Morningstar]

The thing with GL is, it NEEDS to make most of it's money in the first week.

After that, it's ****ed. Unless Transformers completely bombs, which isn't gonna happen.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Pretty much.

lol

You'd think a genre film with such great word of mouth that went up against a film that only opened with 35mil would drop under 50%.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

After that, it's ****ed. Unless Transformers completely bombs, which isn't gonna happen.

Hell will freeze over first.

 

[Showtime]

And from all the reviews, I am going to guess that there won't be a ton of repeat viewings from those that went to the midnight screening.

I am sure only fans went to see Thor and X-Men at midnight and they had about the same midnight openings. The only difference between these three films is word of mouth at this point. Thor and X-Men sold the same number of tickets but Thor had 3D sales to put it's total over X-Men. That may help GL out a bit but I think bad WOM will offset that and it will have a huge drop next weekend.

I think WOM could hurt but I think Cars 2 and Transformers 3 will be what puts a major dent in any possible momentum.

 

[chaseter]

Uh 50% is the usual for these types of films. Anything in the mid to high 60s is terrible and anything in the 40s and 30s is amazing.

Nobody said First Class was doing amazing. It came off one mediocre and one awful film. Nobody expected it to make 300 million. Had it had been in 3D it would have done better, something around what Thor did.

Now Green Lantern's budget hasn't been nailed down but I hear it is in the 200s. Some even say 250 and 300. So it obviously needs to make that domestic...but it won't. I don't even think it will make 300 world wide at this point. If a film cannot make back it's budget worldwide then it is considered a huge fail.

TDK had a 52% drop the second weekend. Shocked? But somehow First Class is doing awful??? X2 had a 53% drop. First Class came in a little under the predictions but that doesn't mean it is doing awful.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

If the word of mouth is bad it will hurt the film but yes, Transformers 3 even more so than Cars 2 will be a huge problem.

 

[Sith Scotti]

Word of mouth is so great on First Class and yet it still dropped 56.2%?

I'm not trying to kick First Class when it's down because I loved the film but it's not doing amazingly despite that so-called great word of mouth and Thor didn't break any records either. It did good enough numbers for a sequel though.

I wouldn't be surprised to see 18mil for GL or 30mil to be honest. I'm expecting somethin in between.

Considerig where Xmen ranks in the tent pole compared to Thor , I will disagree . Thor met or exceeded box office expectation . X Men First Class not so much . Now grant it I think have Portman helped sell it to the female audience which I am still annoyed by Blake Livey being cast . WB could have done better there

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Thor did fine but I'm not going to play up it's boxoffice as if it performed as well as Spider-Man or Iron Man. Fanboys are free to do that but I won't. As for First Class it is just flat out underperforming right now, domestically anyhow.

 

[Showtime]

Uh 50% is the usual for these types of films. Anything in the mid to high 60s is terrible and anything in the 40s and 30s is amazing.

Nobody said First Class was doing amazing. It came off one mediocre and one awful film. Nobody expected it to make 300 million. Had it had been in 3D it would have done better, something around what Thor did.

Now Green Lantern's budget hasn't been nailed down but I hear it is in the 200s. Some even say 250 and 300. So it obviously needs to make that domestic...but it won't. I don't even think it will make 300 world wide at this point. If a film cannot make back it's budget worldwide then it is considered a huge fail.

TDK had a 52% drop the second weekend. Shocked? But somehow First Class is doing awful??? X2 had a 53% drop. First Class came in a little under the predictions but that doesn't mean it is doing awful.

Who are you responding to?

 

[chaseter]

Thor did fine but I'm not going to play up it's boxoffice as if it performed as well as Spider-Man or Iron Man. Fanboys are free to do that but I won't. As for First Class it is just flat out underperforming right now, domestically anyhow.

Thor did fine but First Class didn't even though they cost the same to make and they sold the same number of tickets opening weekend? 3D tickets sales made Thor successful and First Class under perform?

 

[chaseter]

Who are you responding to?

Spidey or Jesus.