Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread

[rogue trooper]

Quality has nothing to do with box office. Do reviews really matter? Not really. Transformers 2 has 20% on rottentomatoes yet made 800 M worldwide. The internet doesn't mean anything for the general audience.

Exactly.

 

[moviedoors]

i got some info from an cgi artist that told me that in the last 4 month they were sweating like Dwayne Johnson in Fast Five. they even joked that sometimes they got a feeling like everyone was expecting from them to just urinate in their pants. in februar they were doing stuff that should already be done in november/december. so when it comes to CGI it looked like a rushed production. i guess planing is not something that WB and Cambel likes they started working on GL very fast.so this had to make the budget very very very high. .

I've been hearing horror stories like this for awhile now. I think we're coming perilously close to seeing an FX strike. These guys still aren't unionized and as a result studios have been riding them to death. 80 hour work weeks with literally no overtime compensation or health insurance when literally every other department gets those amenities. The studios are going to be in a world of hurt if they drive their contract workers into a strike. That'll stall so many tent pole money maker projects it's not even funny.

 

[Marvin]

^3D was the only thing. Especially internationally. 3D is helping tons of movies overseas.

do you feel that if both Natalie portman and Hopkins were in first class as it exists today that it would have opened with the same number?

and if Jenifer Lawrence/Byrne were in thor?

obviously 3D helped but Casting played a big part.
...just like it will with lantern.

 

[Docker2.0]

Showtime and Filmnerdjamie. what do you think will happen with DC and their movies if GL underperforms ? only batman and superman or could Flash happen even if GL underperforms?

do you think if GL does bad at the BO that WB will think that the general public doesnt like fantasy space scifi superhero movies ?

thanks

I actually think that WB knows that isn't the case because Marvel is killing them right now. I think they will continue to let Nolan dictate what can and can't be done with their movies which shouldn't be the case. Nolan works great with Batman(which really isn't Batman)but he should have nothing to do with Superman. And I can't begin to complain about how crazy it is not to have GL, Batman and Superman lead up to a JLA movie or even a shared universe. If both Thor and Cap do well, then WB/DCE can't deny it's not that fans don't like comic movie or space movies, it's just the manner they were done. If GL fails(which I think it will make around $125M Domestically)I think you will see a Flash or a Green Arrow movie with a lower budget. I don't see how GL can cost $300M to make but yet both Cap and Thor cost a total of that much($150M each). That makes no sense. It's Superman Returns all over again. But again, there goes that "DC makes quality over quantity" arguments because other than the Batman series, everything that DC has made has just underperformed in the past 15 years.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Quality has nothing to do with box office. Do reviews really matter? Not really. Transformers 2 has 20% on rottentomatoes yet made 800 M worldwide. The internet doesn't mean anything for the general audience.

All those things are true. GL will tank if the audience doesn't want to see it or they see it and hate it and it drops like rock from here on out. The critics have nothing to do with it alot of the time. They sure didn't save a certain movie that I keep on bringing up. And by save I mean the movie isn't headed towards special numbers.

If GL fails I'm going to be sad for RR's career because I like him but thats it.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

do you feel that if both Natalie portman and Hopkins were in first class as it exists today that it would have opened with the same number?

and if Jenifer Lawrence/Byrne were in thor?

obviously 3D helped but Casting played a big part.
...just like it will with lantern.

You don't understand, it's a fact that 3D is the only reason that Thor did 10mil more in it's opening weekend. The ticket sales were about the same. I have actual numbers and don't need to speculate at all.

 

[kedrell]

I don't think so. If it makes 200 domestic and another 200+ worldwide then it is obviously a success with dvd sales. If it makes 150 domestic and 150 worldwide then well I think we will never see GL2 or Flash or Martian Manhunter or anything besides Batman, Superman, and The Justice League.

GL needs to at least equal Thor's WW end gross(around $450M) just to break even and not be at a $ loss from theatrical release. If it does well enough on DVD that is able to get it a sequel(but the DVD market isn't what it was in 2005 when the same thing was a big factor in Batman Begins getting a sequel so don't hold out hope on that one). In order for theatrical $ to justify a sequel for GL, I'd say $500M WW is necessary. Hard to see it going anywhere near either of those figures based on projected WOM off of reviews.

 

[The Morningstar]

The difference between Transformers 2 making a bucket load of money despite being panned and Green Lantern is...

Green Lantern isn't a sequel. It isn't a well known brand. It hasn't really had that much hype despite a marketing blitz.

If this movie was a sequel to a popular first movie? It'd make big money most probably.

But when the FIRST movie is panned, it's gonna hurt it, box office wise.

 

[kedrell]

The difference between Transformers 2 making a bucket load of money despite being panned and Green Lantern is...

Green Lantern isn't a sequel. It isn't a well known brand. It hasn't really had that much hype despite a marketing blitz.

If this movie was a sequel to a popular first movie? It'd make big money most probably.

But when the FIRST movie is panned, it's gonna hurt it, box office wise.

Especially for superhero movies.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I agree, comparing it to Transformers 2 doesn't work. The bad reviews won't be a problem if the audience likes it enough. I don't think they will but I mention it because there is always a chance, even if it is a 1% chance.

 

[rogue trooper]

The difference between Transformers 2 making a bucket load of money despite being panned and Green Lantern is...

Green Lantern isn't a sequel. It isn't a well known brand. It hasn't really had that much hype despite a marketing blitz.

If this movie was a sequel to a popular first movie? It'd make big money most probably.

But when the FIRST movie is panned, it's gonna hurt it, box office wise.

...but "Clash of The Titans" and "Fantastic Four" were not established franchises and got critically panned also, and yet were financially successful.

 

[dark_b]

...but "Clash of The Titans" and "Fantastic Four" were not established franchises and got critically panned also, and yet were financially successful.

Clash of Titans was in 3D 3 months after Avatar.

 

[The Morningstar]

And Fantastic Four is Fantastic Four. People know who the F4 is. They don't know Green Lantern.

Plus, F4 didn't really have that big a budget. Not anywhere near as big as GL. F4 was succesful with 300 million WW. If GL only makes 300 million WW? That's a certified bomb.

 

[rogue trooper]

Clash of Titans was in 3D 3 months after Avatar.

...ok, so, GL might benifit from being in 3D one month after Thor. Who knows?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

And Fantastic Four's legs weren't awful either. It had a 2.76 multiplier compared to X-Men's 2.89 multipler. If Transformers 3 wasn't coming out I think that GL could have decent legs. Not great or anything because the movie isn't good but decent.

 

[moviedoors]

Clash of Titans was in 3D 3 months after Avatar.

yeah, Clash of the Titans had the good fortunate to be able to piggyback on the success of two wildly successful 3-D movies: Avatar and Alice in Wonderland. No one knew that conversion could suck immensely then either. If it were being released now, I guarantee you it would be performing well under what it did before. 3-D attendance is way down from what it was.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

GL is going to have harder time because of it's huge budget, thats fact.

 

[rogue trooper]

And Fantastic Four is Fantastic Four. People know who the F4 is. They don't know Green Lantern.

Mmm, I disagree. Before the FF film, I'd say FF had the same popularity as GL.

 

[Docker2.0]

Mmm, I disagree. Before the FF film, I'd say FF had the same popularity as GL.

Fantastic Four have had 3 or 4 cartoons, appeared in other character cartoons, have had a couple of video games and even had a b movie. GL has only appeared in someone else's cartoon. I'd say F4 has more exposure than GL and is more well known, though not by much.

 

[Octoberist]

So help me God if I don't get a Flash moivie...

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Plus the most known one to the public seems to be Stewart and not Jordan.

 

[rogue trooper]

GL has only appeared in someone else's cartoon. I'd say F4 has more exposure than GL and is more well known, though not by much.

Well, GL did have his own cartoon with Filmation, although it only lasted 3 episodes. Still, The Superfriends was a very popular show and that's were GL's popularity came from(mainstream-wise).

 

[kedrell]

I still don't understand why DC chose to start this whole new era with GL. That's like if Marvel Studios in 2008 had started with Thor instead of Iron Man. I think Flash would've been the far smarter choice for their 1st non-Supes/Bats big summer attempt. Flash is a much less 'out there' character than GL is. It's easier for the GA to wrap their minds around Flash than it would be with GL or even Wonder Woman.

 

[dark_b]

I still don't understand why DC chose to start this whole new era with GL. That's like if Marvel Studios in 2008 had started with Thor instead of Iron Man. I think Flash would've been the far smarter choice for their 1st non-Supes/Bats big summer attempt. Flash is a much less 'out there' character than GL is. It's easier for the GA to wrap their minds around Flash than it would be with GL or even Wonder Woman.

GL is a space epic. Flash is a guy who ..................runs fast. yeah i knwo that he is good in comics.

GL or Flash? come on on.

 

[kedrell]

Flash is far easier to get right. The way this works is, you get it right and then you get to try some more.