Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread

[Raiden]

Now yes legs will be a determing factor but a 60 million opening weekend is on par with every other superhero film this year , so calling it a bomb because its based on this weekend is lame . If it drops 80 percent next weekend than we can call it a bomb .


The wb spent too much money marketing the film and picked a piss poor release date , so there are many factors going against it , but this weekend showed there was at least some interest in Green Lantern to warrant future films imo

The problem is the budget, as GL is way more expensive than either Thor or FC released this year. Therefore, naturally it is under more pressure to make money than these two. Superman Returns made tons of money, but due to its high budget it was perceived as a disappointment by WB, hence the reason for the reboot.

 

[Sith Scotti]

On par with XFC and Thor, yes. But, it was also more expensive and had more spent on marketing it than either XFC and Thor did. That is part of what makes the opening in this case lackluster. Now, if it obtains legs, then that will overcome the opening a bit. But, films with bad reviews tend to have bad legs. Doesn't mean it always happens, but it is common. I think this is a movie that will need DVD sales to warrant a sequel.

The budget is irrelevant here as far whether we get a sequel or not . The marketing sucked as wb didn't know how to sell it and Robinov needs to take major blame here . This film should have been marketed the same way as Thor . I really don't see a that much of a difference in tone or quality . Both lighthearted fun comic book films .

The wb needed to believe in the film and didn't . That is there damn fault

 

[Chewy]

The budget is irrelevant here as far whether we get a sequel or not . The marketing sucked as wb didn't know how to sell it and Robinov needs to take major blame here . This film should have been marketed the same way as Thor . I really don't see a that much of a difference in tone or quality . Both lighthearted fun comic book films .

The wb needed to believe in the film and didn't . That is there damn fault

Um..

The budget is probably the single most relevant thing here as far as whether we get a sequel or not

 

[Spider-Fan]

The budget is irrelevant here as far whether we get a sequel or not . The marketing sucked as wb didn't know how to sell it and Robinov needs to take major blame here . This film should have been marketed the same way as Thor . I really don't see a that much of a difference in tone or quality . Both lighthearted fun comic book films .

The wb needed to believe in the film and didn't . That is there damn fault

Bad marketing or not, the budget matters. It's the #1 thing that matters. Investment vs Profit is basic economics. Universal dropped the ball marketing TIH, and do you see any interest in Hulk sequels right now? We can argue the marketing campaign til the cows come home (and GL was marketed majorly...you saw it everywhere). But, the BO gross is what it is. And compared to GL's budget, it is low.

 

[Sith Scotti]

Um..

The budget is probably the single most relevant thing here as far as whether we get a sequel or not

No its going to have weak legs because nuts going against Transformers and the marketing should have not been more than 50 million . , and a more consistant campaign If this film had Thor's release date it would be in better shape . Next week is Cars and than Transformers 3

 

[terry78]

I suspect this may have done better in May, considering two of the biggest moneymakers in existence are opening at the tail end of this month.

 

[Marvin]

Batman Begins had awesome legs and was critically recieved well. I don't see GL getting that same treatment. It is far more uphill a battle for a sequel to GL.

it had pretty good word of mouth but lets not confuse begins with IronMan.

 

[DieSmiling]

Bad marketing or not, the budget matters. It's the #1 thing that matters. Investment vs Profit is basic economics. Universal dropped the ball marketing TIH, and do you see any interest in Hulk sequels right now? We can argue the marketing campaign til the cows come home (and GL was marketed majorly...you saw it everywhere). But, the BO gross is what it is. And compared to GL's budget, it is low.

This is true, but I think WB's perception and expectations are very important in this regard.

Hangover 2 and Potter will guarantee that WB will have a successful year, so if they see potential they might greenlight a sequel even if it's not a mega hit.

Unfortunately, negative reviews definitley hurt in this regard.

 

[terry78]

The only medium negative reviews don't really hurt are comedies or music, because they're both so subjective.

 

[DieSmiling]

it had pretty good word of mouth but lets not confuse begins with IronMan.

You make it sound like they aren't comparable. I've never met a anyone in person who didn't like Begins.

The WOM was absolutley just as good as it was with Iron Man. It just didn't open as big so not as many people were spreading the good word.

 

[Marvin]

70 mil when BB came out was worth more than GL's 60 will be. GL gets the 3D boost BB didn't get. I won't factor inflation (cause BB's budget would also go up if comparing inflation). But, the 3D boost is big.

I want the film to succeed, too. Don't take me pointing this out as hating. Like I said earlier, I didn't feel like the film was nearly as bad as people make it out to be (though it is very flawed). I'm just being realistic on its BO #'s.

BB might have done tha too if it had 3D to back it up .

Didn't superman Returns come out in 3D like a year later
as I recall it all but matched Batman Begins numbers (but with a gl like budget, lord knows where the money went)

 

[Marvin]

You make it sound like they aren't comparable. I've never met a anyone in person who didn't like Begins.

The WOM was absolutley just as good as it was with Iron Man. It just didn't open as big so not as many people were spreading the good word.

I've met a few, but mostly after TDK came out.

word of mouth comes in two sometimes 3 forms IMO.

option A
Q "how was it"
A "It was good, worth seeing"

Option B
"Have you seen it (yet)"


Option C(rare)
"Have you seen the new ba..."
"HELL YA, LET'S GET MARRIED!"

i did say it was rare.

Begins was A
Iron Man was B
The room was C

 

[KalMart]

Didn't superman Returns come out in 3D like a year later
as I recall it all but matched Batman Begins numbers (but with a gl like budget, lord knows where the money went)

Corn.

 

[DieSmiling]

I've met a few, but mostly after TDK came out.

word of mouth comes in two sometimes 3 forms IMO.

option A
Q "how was it"
A "It was good, worth seeing"

Option B
"Have you see it (yet)"


Option C(rare)
"Have you see the new ba..."
"HELL YA, LET'S GET MARRIED!"

i did say it was rare.

Begins was A
Iron Man was B
The room was C

Oh hai mark!

But seriously, I'd still argue that Batman Begins and Iron Man had roughly equivelent audience responses (pretty much everyone liked both of them) but Iron Man was a well marketed crowd pleaser that kicked off the summer, and started with a bang. Batman Begins didn't have a huge elvel of anticipation based on being the fifth Batman feature and coming off the B&R stinker.

I don't get the "people didn't see BB until after TDK" stuff. Part of the reason TDK was so huge was because BB was so well liked.

 

[Chewy]

It is true that a lot of people didn't see Begins until after TDK, but I'd think that they are in the minority.

 

[jmc]

People also have to factor 3D into this whole thing, if GL box office is only on par with XFC that means fewer people are actually watching it, the box office is already misleading because XFC wasn't in 3D.

 

[TheVileOne]

I doubt this movie will be anywhere near as successful as Batman Begins.

 

[DieSmiling]

People also have to factor 3D into this whole thing, if GL box office is only on par with XFC that means fewer people are actually watching it, the box office is already misleading because XFC wasn't in 3D.

Why is that really relevent, though? If we're talking about budgets and profitability, who cares the number of people who saw it?

 

[jmc]

Why is that really relevent, though? If we're talking about budgets and profitability, who cares the number of people who saw it?

It's totally relevant. Fewer people who see it means fewer people are going to spread good word of mouth which then equals fewer dollars next week.

 

[Marvin]

Oh hai mark!

But seriously, I'd still argue that Batman Begins and Iron Man had roughly equivelent audience responses (pretty much everyone liked both of them) but Iron Man was a well marketed crowd pleaser that kicked off the summer, and started with a bang. Batman Begins didn't have a huge elvel of anticipation based on being the fifth Batman feature and coming off the B&R stinker.

I don't get the "people didn't see BB until after TDK" stuff. Part of the reason TDK was so huge was because BB was so well liked.

I meant they didn't like BB as much after seeing TDK.
they found it un-eventful which relative to the plotty work in dark knight is fair. I personally hate the direction during the arkham escape.

IM had a zeitgeist vibe to it. Downey was back and sam jackson was looking stupid(imo) as nick fury and there was serious buzz to the tune of 305 mill domestic and even more WW.

Begins was strong and made way for TDK's success(partially) but it didn't seem the zeitgeist IM was.

 

[Marvin]

Corn.

won't have to worry about that with Snyderman, it will be added in post lol

 

[KalMart]

won't have to worry about that with Snyderman, it will be added in post lol

Mmmm...digital corn.....

 

[jmc]

According to Deadline GL has opened soft internationally.

 

[Marvin]

According to Deadline GL has opened soft internationally.

considering it's scattered dates I'm not sure how that's unexpected

 

[Avengers-Report]

According to Deadline GL has opened soft internationally.

WB is stokeddddddd