I must ask:
1. What is your definition of risk? What differentiates a "huge" risk from moderate risk?
You stated that Marvel is using a formulaic story arc, and so were DC with the TDK story arc. There is no guarantee that simply plugging in the formula Marvel's hero journey or TDK will work for every character.
I believe that takes discernment as to knowing when using that structure is appropriate and when using a different story arc is more appropriate.
It takes an intimate understanding of a character in order to execute this properly - what makes Spider Man appeal to the mainstream for example. Is it simply his appearance and sense of humour? I would say it is a combination of his geekiness as Peter but when he becomes Spider Man it is empowering and it enables him to gain the self confidence and social acceptance that was lacking in his normal life. Also I stress that he should have problems of most teenage boys.
My point is when the writers understand the character and write the story around that character, the formula will be secondary. It is more important that the story be character driven and there is a progression. The Marvel formula you described is common to the comic book genre. It is coincidental that Marvel just happens to use it. That's like saying every horror movie needs a killer whose identity is a mystery. A protagonist rises to defeat them, usually someone that has a common history with the killer, or their fates have been intertwined. The killer is killed by the protagonist. Only to mysteriously come back to life.
I could reword what you described as The Marvel formula as:
1) Guy is super talented charming *****e. we are introduced to our protagonist, who seems to live a normal life, but is a social outcast
2) Guy gets screwed up because of his own jerkishness something bad happens to our protagonist that is beyond their control, and changes their life permanently
3) Person offers to help guy, kicking off the hero's journey peppered with good humorour protagonist discovers that they have super powers and starts learning to use them for selfish reasons
4) Guy realizes he needs help/friends, gets their help with a weak big badour protagonist is faced with a crossroads decision to take control of their destiny by overcoming the epitome of their greatest weakness/fear
5) Guy realizes he shouldn't be self centered and offers to sacrifice himselfour protagonist makes the decision to overcome by rising to the challenge, realizing their true potential, finding their place in society, but most of all to have control
I don't see this as a formula. It is more of a comic book story telling device. I believe every genre has a particular plot structure. The Marvel one is well known and used by other publishers as well, not just Marvel.
Um.... you're generalizing very specific points.
1) Iron Man, Thor, Star-Lord, Ant-Man and Dr. Strange aren't social outcasts living normal lives at all. Their flaw is self centeredness and their redeeming quality is charm. That's a very specific choice that works for them, that they keep making, even if it's not at all based on the characters' comics versions (Star-Lord, Ant-Man).
2) Stark, Thor, Star-Lord, Ant-Man and Dr. Strange are not screwed up by things beyond their control. Stark's own recklessly sold weapons, Thor's warmongering, Star-Lord and Ant-Man's thievery and Dr. Strange texting and driving, things well within their control and directly related to their flaw.
3) Are you sure you're taling about Thor, Ant-Man, and Dr. Strange? Because that only arguably applies to Star Lord and Stark.
4/5) You can restate a specific as a generalization, but that's not a counter to the fact that the specific keeps repeating itself, just obsfuscating. Which is why you don't see the formula.
In this context: A huge risk is something that everything is riding on that does not make sense on paper, i.e. doesn't have a number of successful implementations of something similar that you can refer to. A moderate risk is anything less than that that isn't a sure thing.
You do make one good point while ignoring mine though. A formula doesn't work for every hero. That's true, and DC still hasn't figured that out. Marvel did, and so they ended up prioritizing heroes who work with that formula, even if twisting them out of their comics form a bit. Ant-Man, Guardians of the Galaxy and Dr. Strange are not the foremost B/C-Listers in the MCU's catalog, but they have movies out before the likes of more demanded characters like Black Panther, Captian Marvel and the Inhumans. So while formula is secondary to character, formula is a way that we can correlate how Marvel prioritizes characters, and I've never seen any others. It certainly isn't the characters that determine what characters are produced, but the formula.
This, again, is not to say that the MCU doesn't take risks. I think they take very smart calculated risks in their talent choices, evidenced by how some of them don't work out. Films that fall outside of this perennially successful formula like: TIH, CATFA, CATWS are hit and miss. I think though they've discovered a formula for the Avengers in CATWS, which they expanded to make it Avengers-sized in CACW. People weren't vocal about Avengers 3/4 until after Civil War, when people experienced a functional non-origin Avengers dynamic, and they loved it. It also gave them a formula for sequels in terms of having your principal charcter be static and turning it into a team up film to expand that corner of the world. IM2 was on the right track, but people had backlash against the SHIELD bits, so they tried to instead only expand into what people wanted most in Thor 2, and that didn't land, but Cap 2 struck the sweet spot, and so that seems to be what they're doing with Thor 3, Ant-Man and Wasp, GotG 2 and even Dr. Strange 2 promises [blackout]a hunt for more sorcerors. [/blackout]
But this idea that the popularity of a film is in any way limited by the popularity of the comic book, thus making Dr. Strange "risky" just hasn't been paying attention to the response to superhero movies. If anything, the most popular comic book characters are the riskiest, judging by how often they fall short. The real risks, based on what has legitimate reason to fail are Black Panther and Captain Marvel, though even those characters aren't entirely beyond the Marvel Formula, but even them not being white males puts them outside of it and would be received differently in society, honestly. It'll be interesting to see what happens with those films, and you'll be able to tell within the first five minutes whether they're twisting these characters to fit the Marvel formula or doing something differently. If the latter, proven banner characters like Black Panther and Captain Marvel will be a much greater risk than supposedly risky characters like Guardians of the Galaxy and Dr. Strange.
Exception that proves the rule: Spider-Man homecoming. Which is following the Breakfast Club formula instead of the typical Marvel one.