I've read this a few places.
They're kind of debating it over on IMDB.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1228705/board/thread/159795006?p=1
One things for sure, Iron Man 1 was far better than D9. So, if IM2 is as good as IM1, you do the math. After the "was D9 really good" debate died down over there, Iron Man 2 is getting a little buzz on its own. I think RDJr should have a shot for best actor.
How can the awards people keep overlooking this part? RDJr as Tony Stark is now the stuff of legend. Think Anthony Hopkins as Hannibal. Pacino as Michael Corleone. Harrison Ford as Indiana Jones. Clark Gable as Rhett Butler. Clint Eastwood as Dirty Harry. John Wayne as Rooster Cogburn. Marlon Brando as Vito Corleone.