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Fair points. There are other sides of it too though, a lot families are together during that time of the year and it's the perfect multi-generational appeal, family movie. And it's not like there's no precedent for winter movies doing really well like LOTR and Harry Potter. I'd have to admit that overtaking the OW record is probably unlikely, but like DarthSkywalker said, if the film is great word of mouth it could really end up just dominating the box office for months.
Or even a better example since we're talking box office, Avatar.