Justice League Justice League Box Office Prediction - Part 3

[The Endless]

I see many people are focusing on US domestic as being the 'sole' point of judgement as to whether this sinks, floats, or is taken into a corner and sadly put down.

1) Can we all just wait and see what the actual figures are before deciding the film's fate and that of the DCEU in it's entirety.

2) The international (overseas) figures are going to be good. I see $232m is 'out there' as a domestic US figure in total, well, say we get nearer $300m and $440-480 overseas, then it's not so bad, figures WB wanted no, but equally not a disaster either.

3) It strikes me, many people in this sub forum WANT the film to fail, judging by the posts written and the words included.

If people are genuinely DC fans, stand by your film and your universe and go see it, 2, 3, 4 times. Back it because if you value it, see it.

No that's the wrong attitude to have.

I'm a DC fan and I want better for these characters. They deserve much, much better. This isn't the DC universe that the majority of fans or even General audiences want to see.

There is no bigger motivator than failure...

 

[Mr. Fantastic]

If people are genuinely DC fans, stand by your film and your universe and go see it, 2, 3, 4 times. Back it because if you value it, see it.

Ha ha. I'm a DC fan, and I genuinely want JL to fail so hard they completely revamp the entire thing. Start from scratch. Give me this.

 

[Bane Cook]

I’ve went to all DCEU movies opening night and waited in line for hours to watch it in IMAX. For Justice League I got tickets for Monday the week of release that were first come first serve. I got there and waited for hours to make sure I got in. I then went to see Justice League Thursday and now again tonight. I went to see TDKR opening night. That was when they did Thursday night previews at 12 am. I got there at 4pm to wait in line.


I’m a fan.

 

[OdinSon]

I see many people are focusing on US domestic as being the 'sole' point of judgement as to whether this sinks, floats, or is taken into a corner and sadly put down.

1) Can we all just wait and see what the actual figures are before deciding the film's fate and that of the DCEU in it's entirety.

2) The international (overseas) figures are going to be good. I see $232m is 'out there' as a domestic US figure in total, well, say we get nearer $300m and $440-480 overseas, then it's not so bad, figures WB wanted no, but equally not a disaster either.

3) It strikes me, many people in this sub forum WANT the film to fail, judging by the posts written and the words included.

If people are genuinely DC fans, stand by your film and your universe and go see it, 2, 3, 4 times. Back it because if you value it, see it.

You are overestimating the strength of DCEU brand outside the US. Look at Wonder Women's overseas gross compared to domestic. BVS hurt DC brand internationally as well(with exception of Brazil). Anyway, I truly hope I am proven wrong and your assessment turns out to be correct.

I was depressed the whole day today because of this. Low critic rating didn't bother me as I was somewhat expecting it after the lukewarm reception. But low box office number has potential to kill the shared universe and also the individual movies of some characters.

 

[bapi]

I think SS2 would be financial disappointing(if not right out bomb). SS is outright reviled. BvS made a good chunk of change and look what happened to its sequel because of how BvS was regarded. SS made BvS look like Oscar material. I don’t see how anyone is rushing out to see Suicide Squad 2 of all things. The Suicide Squad name has been destroyed.

I agree. Making sequels to poorly received movies is always tricky. Also Justin Kroll mentioned Smith won't be available before Fall '18 so that movie can't be release before Q4 2019, more than 3 years after SS1. Guess it had some momentum when they were trying to sign Gibson but after JL?Don't think so.

 

[jmc]

I see many people are focusing on US domestic as being the 'sole' point of judgement as to whether this sinks, floats, or is taken into a corner and sadly put down.

1) Can we all just wait and see what the actual figures are before deciding the film's fate and that of the DCEU in it's entirety.

2) The international (overseas) figures are going to be good. I see $232m is 'out there' as a domestic US figure in total, well, say we get nearer $300m and $440-480 overseas, then it's not so bad, figures WB wanted no, but equally not a disaster either.

3) It strikes me, many people in this sub forum WANT the film to fail, judging by the posts written and the words included.

If people are genuinely DC fans, stand by your film and your universe and go see it, 2, 3, 4 times. Back it because if you value it, see it.

I'm a DC fan, I only wish to see these characters done right. This hasn't been done right.

 

[Vlyse]

The brand is the issue now. WW and Batman should be fine, it's the others who might have been screwed over now. I can't imagine any of those other films, Nightwing, Deathstroke, Gotham City Sirens, Joker + Harley, etc are going anywhere right now.

Batgirl is more of a ? than Nightwing. Committed & untainted director, completed script, and this

We haven’t started the process of casting NIGHTWING yet but when we do you’ll hear something because our search will be far and wide
11:37 AM - 5 Nov 2017

Do you think pre-production can start next year?
Chris McKay
Yes I think it can provided the script is crazy great
11:53 AM - Nov 5, 2017

 

[bapi]

So 300 million production budget at least, 100 million marketing budget = 400 million all told (at least). Studio takes about 55% of box office.... yeah 750 million is the absolute floor. Any less and they’re eating it.

But... JL is currently tracking under Man Of Steel, so...

Quite sure marketing + distribution is somewhere between 180-220M for these big movies. No doubt this is a 500M project.

 

[OdinSon]

No that's the wrong attitude to have.

I'm a DC fan and I want better for these characters. They deserve much, much better. This isn't the DC universe that the majority of fans or even General audiences want to see.

There is no bigger motivator than failure...

The problem with failure is that it may push WB to stop making solo movies of characters like Superman. I don't just want to see Batman and Wonder Women in cinematic universe. I want more. Lets pray that the movie reaches 800 million so that WB don't permanently bury some characters.

 

[BH/HHH]

You are overestimating the strength of DCEU brand outside the US. Look at Wonder Women's overseas gross compared to domestic. BVS hurt DC brand internationally as well(with exception of Brazil). Anyway, I truly hope I am proven wrong and your assessment turns out to be correct.

I was depressed the whole day today because of this. Low critic rating didn't bother me as I was somewhat expecting it after the lukewarm reception. But low box office number has potential to kill the shared universe and also the individual movies of some characters.

The bolder is exactly how I’m feeling even as a fan of the movies I can see WBs has ****ed up in the grand scheme of things. As I’ve said elsewhere it’s about more than just the fans.

 

[ludovica]

If people are genuinely DC fans, stand by your film and your universe and go see it, 2, 3, 4 times. Back it because if you value it, see it.

I value what deserves it, blind brand loyalty makes for sloppy products.

 

[StormC]

Quite sure marketing + distribution is somewhere between 180-220M for these big movies. No doubt this is a 500M project.

Residual marketing is often made back by tie-ins or advertising budgets and such. I generally use a rule of 3x the production budget (this is what Forbes did for WW), but JL's marketing has been weak so I'm gently guessing break even point is around 800M.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

I'll ask: what box office threshold would constitute a bomb for JL?

Here's what Deadline says:

I hear from credible financial sources who have sharp knowledge of Justice League‘s budget that if the film clears $700M-$750M global, after ancillaries, it will turn a profit, but not much.

http://deadline.com/2017/11/justice...wer-thor-ragnarok-wonder-the-star-1202211094/

 

[PacificBoy]

Going to have to disagree with you there. Suicide Squad is no where near as reviled as BVS, granted it's not as loved as Wonder Woman either, but still...

There was a poll with over 115k votes that ranked the DCEU films and SS ranked above both MOS and BVS (ranked last). Like I said Will Smith, Margot Robbie and The Rock are enough to put butts in seats, throw in a good trailer and reviews (Gavin O'Connor has a good track record) and presto WB has a hit!

I think because the DCEU hasn't been imprinted upon the GA the way the MCU has, audiences possibly view Squad, Wonder Woman and the unofficial Superman trilogy in MoS, BvS and JL as distantly related but distinct properties.

Wonder is Gal and Patty's vehicle, Squad is Will Smith and Margot Robbie. Aquaman will surely be pitched as a James Wan movie with perhaps Nicole Kidman featured right and centre too.

 

[ludovica]

The bolder is exactly how I’m feeling even as a fan of the movies I can see WBs has ****ed up. As I’ve said elsewhere it’s about more than just the fans.

Most fans are also not exactly happy with what they got.

 

[jmc]

The problem with failure is that it may push WB to stop making solo movies of characters like Superman. I don't just want to see Batman and Wonder Women in cinematic universe. I want more. Lets pray that the movie reaches 800 million so that WB don't permanently bury some characters.

I get the depressing feeling we may not see Superman again for awhile, especially with Shazam coming up.

 

[bapi]

The problem with failure is that it may push WB to stop making solo movies of characters like Superman. I don't just want to see Batman and Wonder Women in cinematic universe. I want more. Lets pray that the movie reaches 800 million so that WB don't permanently bury some characters.

Well, let's be honest: Cavill's contract probably expired after JL and there's nothing. No director, no script. So even if they wanted to make another 250m SUperman movie then it's not happening before summer 2020 or more likely 2021.

Aquaman is in post-production, Shazam starts filming in JAN but then what's left? Wonder Woman 2, 3, 4, 5 because no doubt Gadot would like to play that role for another 10-12 years at least. Reeves' Batman trilogy and probably some movies with Margot Robbie's Harley Quinn and whatever The Rock wants to be a part of.

 

[BH/HHH]

Most fans are also not exactly happy with what they got.

Even as someone who has been happy with about 80% or what we’ve gotten over the five films it’s clear it hasn’t worked.

 

[jmc]

Well, it's nice to see there's a little bit of common ground being found after 4 years.

 

[bapi]

If this comes under 95 millions, can we all finally agree the audience didn't like BvS?

I'll just never understand why WB kept Snyder after MoS.

 

[ludovica]

I get the depressing feeling we may not see Superman again for awhile, especially with Shazam coming up.

Use Supes similarly to Tony in Shazam, but "in costume".
Better than nothing.

 

[Mandon Knight]

Okay everyone, the brand's tarnished, lets give up now shall we.

 

[Reel-Man]

I think Variety might know better than Deadline's "my sources" claims.

When tens of millions of dollars in worldwide marketing and distribution costs are added in, “Justice League” would have to bring in a lofty sum of around $600 million from ticket sales alone and additional revenue from ancillaries like pay-TV and home entertainment in order to turn a profit.

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/justice-league-dc-reviews-box-office-ben-affleck-1202615975/

 

[StormC]

Okay everyone, the brand's tarnished, lets give up now shall we.

I don't understand what you're asking us to do. Pay a movie we don't like?

 

[Mr. Fantastic]

Okay everyone, the brand's tarnished, lets give up now shall we.

NOT giving up after BVS led to this...and that's after bringing in Whedon to make the movie bearable.

By giving up, I hope you realize everyone just wants a fresh start and quality movies. No one is saying to bury the entire DC universe here.