Justice League Justice League Box Office Prediction - Part 7

[Micromind]

It was one of the factors sure, I mean..the movie was not a crowd-pleaser.

 

[Limonade]

Audience don't make a decision just based on how the earlier movie performed (there are other factors also.), for example Quantum of Solace didn't do well but the next Bond movie Skyfall did very well.

Also, if MoS was a bad movie why did people show up to see BvS ? Going by the logic Mendelson gives, BvS should have earned only $ 400 mil, a drop of 40 % from the first movies' collections.

I mean. With MoS, parents complained that superman killed and that moment sorta made it not for kids, even though the trailers made it look like awe-inspiring and something for the whole family to watch.

Then BvS came out and some parents took their kids again thinking that it would fix the previous mistakes.

Low and behold JL fixed their mistakes... but the audience had already had enough of this pulling the rug over them at that point.

I mean there's a trail of bread-crumbs that has lead up to this distrust of the audience with WB and their superhero in general.

Wonder Woman was at least decent and a step in the right direction. But that was done with a different team with a lot more leeway as the other previous movies began to falter in expectations.

Of course, this is just one of many ways it started crumbling under DC fans feet.

 

[ultradog]

Audience don't make a decision just based on how the earlier movie performed (there are other factors also.), for example Quantum of Solace didn't do well but the next Bond movie Skyfall did very well.

Also, if MoS was a bad movie why did people show up to see BvS ? Going by the logic Mendelson gives, BvS should have earned only $ 400 mil, a drop of 40 % from the first movies' collections.

BvS was a huge factor in the flop of JL, perhaps the biggest. Your MoS analogy is bad, because Batman. A great number of people were psyched and anxiously awaiting JL... until they saw BvS.

 

[JerseyJoker]

I understand, Micromind, that in your mind, it doesn't gel as a solution or reason for why JL bombed, but just cause you can't understand it, doesn't mean its not right.

Batman Begins did fine as a first outing/oirgin story. It didnt set the world on fire, it was just a good movie that people saw and liked. Nothing about that movie lead you to think the next film would be a complete genre defining film. Nothing. But it happened.

Man of Steel was a movie where people were decisively lead to question the ideas and story behind Snyders take on Superman. It did well at the box office, first new Supes in a while, especially a Superman with action. But still had people on the fence.

Next film was BvS, everything about that movie was focused on a new element that the audience didnt have before, Batman and Wonder Woman. Superman was a second notion. People were going to see basically a new movie, because Batman, Lex Luthor, Wonder WOman, Doomsday, Alfred, etc.. none of these elments were in Man of Steel. People went to BvS and people disliked Batman v Superman.

People were way more decisive about BvS then about Man of Steel. So by the time Justice League comes around, people for two times already, have a lingering bad taste in their mouths about what Snyder delivers. Is being fed bad marketing. And generally, just bad history from the people involved.

Batman v Superman is the general reason JL failed. There are other factors too, but if BvS was a all around success and public reacted favorably, then if JL was the same movie, it probably would of had a bad second week drop off, but that first weekend would of been gifted with such positive outlook the people still would of went to see it.

No movie that makes 90 mill that was expected in the 120+ range can be seen as anything other than a failure, and if youre a failure in a franchise, its a result of what has come before.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Audience don't make a decision just based on how the earlier movie performed (there are other factors also.), for example Quantum of Solace didn't do well but the next Bond movie Skyfall did very well.

Also, if MoS was a bad movie why did people show up to see BvS ? Going by the logic Mendelson gives, BvS should have earned only $ 400 mil, a drop of 40 % from the first movies' collections.

Just because you cherry picked one example doesn't make it not true.

The space between Skyfall and Quantum was four years. It wasn't a sequel where any plot elements transferred from Quantum. It was a standalone.

And it was the 50th anniversary of Bond. Giving it a hype boost.

 

[GothamBat]

I understand, Micromind, that in your mind, it doesn't gel as a solution or reason for why JL bombed, but just cause you can't understand it, doesn't mean its not right.

Batman Begins did fine as a first outing/oirgin story. It didnt set the world on fire, it was just a good movie that people saw and liked. Nothing about that movie lead you to think the next film would be a complete genre defining film. Nothing. But it happened.

Man of Steel was a movie where people were decisively lead to question the ideas and story behind Snyders take on Superman. It did well at the box office, first new Supes in a while, especially a Superman with action. But still had people on the fence.

Next film was BvS, everything about that movie was focused on a new element that the audience didnt have before, Batman and Wonder Woman. Superman was a second notion. People were going to see basically a new movie, because Batman, Lex Luthor, Wonder WOman, Doomsday, Alfred, etc.. none of these elments were in Man of Steel. People went to BvS and people disliked Batman v Superman.

People were way more decisive about BvS then about Man of Steel. So by the time Justice League comes around, people for two times already, have a lingering bad taste in their mouths about what Snyder delivers. Is being fed bad marketing. And generally, just bad history from the people involved.

Batman v Superman is the general reason JL failed. There are other factors too, but if BvS was a all around success and public reacted favorably, then if JL was the same movie, it probably would of had a bad second week drop off, but that first weekend would of been gifted with such positive outlook the people still would of went to see it.

No movie that makes 90 mill that was expected in the 120+ range can be seen as anything other than a failure, and if youre a failure in a franchise, its a result of what has come before.

But what came before was Suicide Squad. A smash hit. And Wonder Woman. Also a monster at the BO, a critical favorite and, for a good while, a potential oscar nominee.

 

[MbJ]

But what came before was Suicide Squad. A smash hit. And Wonder Woman. Also a monster at the BO, a critical favorite and, for a good while, a potential oscar nominee.

Neither of which were direct sequels to Batman v. Superman. And I actually wouldn't be surprised if Suicide Squad's reputation also came back to end up hurting JL down the line since it contributed to the overall perception that the DCEU as a franchise is bad. I'm predicting now that Suicide Squad 2's opening is probably gonna be less than its predecessor's.

 

[JerseyJoker]

People were excited for movies that were outside of the Snyder touch...shocking.

 

[Micromind]

Neither of which were direct sequels to Batman v. Superman. And I actually wouldn't be surprised if Suicide Squad's reputation also came back to end up hurting JL down the line since it contributed to the overall perception that the DCEU as a franchise is bad. I'm predicting now that Suicide Squad 2's opening is probably gonna be less than its predecessor's.

I really doubt people were thinking of how good/bad Suicide Squad was when they were thinking of buying tickets for Justice League.

Also, I have already admitted that BvS was one of the factors why JL unperformed but it was not the Only one.

As for reception of earlier movie having an influence on the sequel, it's not always the case, I already gave an example of how James Bond movie Skyfall got mega success despite lacklusture performance QoS.

Then there's example of how Singers X-men Apocalypse failed at Box Office despite earlier movie X-Men DoFP doing well, so the theory put forward by Mendelson is not always applicable and isn't applicable to JL.

I think that's all I have to say in this matter.

 

[Flint Marko]

Those of us paying attention (including the people at Forbes) predicted shortly after the dust settled post-BvS that JL was going to underperform in way that WB would feel.

It was plain to see, before we got any real glimpse at the film or word of any production trouble, that the well was already soured with BvS. We can point to the numerous other factors why the film bombed because there were plenty, but BvS's failure is undeniably the biggest reason. Audiences did not want to see a follow-up to that film.

 

[Romannen]

This movie will open with at least 130 million domestic. I bet my balls on this.

Just out of curiosity, did you follow through on the promise in any way?

 

[Jekecy]

Just out of curiosity, did you follow through on the promise in any way?

I've heard they go by 'mamadivine' now.

 

[Limonade]

Just out of curiosity, did you follow through on the promise in any way?

Bwahaha!

 

[samsnee]

People got burned by the first two movies for sure. I bet if the critic reviews were much better, like 90% RT, then it would have at least had better legs. Maybe same opening weekend, but word of mouth would have been better.

 

[DKDetective]

Just because you cherry picked one example doesn't make it not true.

The space between Skyfall and Quantum was four years. It wasn't a sequel where any plot elements transferred from Quantum. It was a standalone.

And it was the 50th anniversary of Bond. Giving it a hype boost.

Also, the Bond series cannot be used as comparator for like ANYTHING. It is utterly and totally unique in film history.

 

[daddydivine]

Just out of curiosity, did you follow through on the promise in any way?

Uhm, no one took me up on my bet... so that means I bet myself and myself said double or nothing. So waiting on the next DCEU film. This time I won't get fooled by hype. I predict no DCEU movie makes over a billion ever.

 

[samsnee]

The only one that has a shot is Wonder Woman 2.

 

[Iceman]

The only one that has a shot is Wonder Woman 2.

Will be interesting to see how that high that one can go.

 

[JerseyJoker]

As long as Patty Jenkins and crew get to make the movie they want like they did the first time, without WB over thinking or interfering.

The skys the limit.

 

[Erzengel]

After GOTG and HC, didn't get close to $1B, I'm not exactly sure WW2 will. Then again I was surprised by how well Black Panther did this weekend. However, outside the Avengers movies, I don't know which other movies coming out has a chance at $1B. Although, out of DCEU, I will say that WW2 has the "best" chance.

 

[RomanticPenguin]

maybe suicide squad 2 if it's really good and released in china but what are the chances of that

 

[Everett Ross]

However, outside the Avengers movies, I don't know which other movies coming out has a chance at $1B.

Black Panther.

 

[Playco Armboy]

Black Panther overtook JL's entire domestic run in 4 days.

L O L

 

[Erzengel]

Black Panther.

That was a little inferred in my post, although I think few people months ago would have thought that.

 

[KalvinEllis]

Black Panther overtook JL's entire domestic run in 4 days.

L O L

Black Panther was basically manufactured to be a monster hit. Justice League was arguably the most glaring example of studio mismanagement that I've seen. Are you really that surprised?