MCU Box Office

I changed the title because it’s so obvious that it will be SM:NWH to surpass that 100M OW mark and it might even take the 1B spot as well and if so I’ll rename the thread to something else so it doesn’t go to waste. Maybe a general MCU box office thread/“post pandemic” BO results.

MCU phase 4 box office update:

Black Widow - 80M OW / Domestic: 183M + International: 195M = Worldwide: 379M (Disney+)
Shang-Chi - 75M OW / Domestic: 224M + International: 207M = Worldwide: 431M
Eternals - 71M OW / Domestic: 161M + International: 234M = Worldwide: 395M *
Spider-Man: NWH
- ?
 
NWH im expecting to do idk something like 750m - 850m

It's hard because I think covid could make it the lowest performing spider-man (proper) movie yet. And on the other hand, no spidey movie has ever made less than 700m.

In the same vein, this is a crossover event film that without covid should've easily hit 1b, if not 1.5b.

We shall see but I'm comfortable saying 750-850m
 
With regards to the question in the thread title... I will throw a wild guess out there and say Black Panther 2?
 
NWH im expecting to do idk something like 750m - 850m

It's hard because I think covid could make it the lowest performing spider-man (proper) movie yet. And on the other hand, no spidey movie has ever made less than 700m.

In the same vein, this is a crossover event film that without covid should've easily hit 1b, if not 1.5b.

We shall see but I'm comfortable saying 750-850m
Nah I definitely think NWH hits 1B
 
When i look at the domestic box office this year i see the top grosser is Shang-Chi with 224M.
When i look just at the international box office James Bond: No Time To Die scored 610M.

Spider-Man: NWH will likely outgross both Shang-Chi/domestic and James Bond: NTD/international grosses. Just matching those 2 results would give it 834M, now taking into consideration that SM:NWH is on track to score around 200M just on OW, it's safe to say that it will obliterate Shang-Chi domestic total of 224M and it's probably going to translate into around 400M domestic. Now James Bond: NTD scored 610M internationally with 63M of those coming from China which apparently won't release SM:NWH in their market so you gotta account for that.

So yeh when it's all said and done Spider-Man: NWH will probably crack that 1B mark. It has some competition coming in form of Matrix 4 which also releases in streaming and The Kingsman but it should survive those hurdles as well.
 
I think Thor: Love and Thunder has a solid shot at hitting that 1B mark as well.

Thor - Opening Weekend = 65M / Domestic = 181M / Worldwide = 449M
Thor: TDW - Opening Weekend = 85M / Domestic = 206M / Worldwide = 644M
Thor: Ragnarok - Opening Weekend = 122M / Domestic = 315M / Worldwide = 850M

The upwards trajectory of the Thor franchise is clear. With the lukewarm reception from TDW, Thor as a character had the uphill battle to change perceptions and entice people into coming back for more, Ragnarok's breath of fresh air and critical acclaim was just that for the character and franchise. Infinity War expertly capitalize on that and lifted the character's popularity into even greater heights. End Game served more of a side step than anything else and the upcoming TLT seems to be going back for more of the Ragnarok/IW approach. Coming off of Ragnarok, IW and AEG the Thor character and his franchise are primed for another home-run providing the film delivers.

Now the other part of the equation worth taking into account is TLT's release date of July 8th. From there the film has 3 weeks to score most of the box office potential without much competition around. Then on July 29th drops Black Adam which should be coming in hot taking a good chunk of the box office around but after that there's basically 2 months without any big blockbuster in sight and that will give plenty of time and opportunity for TLT to slowly but continuously add more to the overall total.
 
I think the biggest issue with these predictions is that China is a wild card at the moment. And given rising tensions between the US and China, expecting China to welcome Hollywood imports seems like a mistake.

I can tell you right now, Thor ain't getting a release date based on the past year. And without China, Thor has no chance of even getting close to a billion.
 
Unless the Transformer variant ravages the holidays, Spider-Man is going to blow past a billion, even without China imo. The pre-sales are bananas.
 
MCU phase 4 box office update:

Black Widow - 80M OW / Domestic: 183M + International: 195M = Worldwide: 379M (Disney+)
Shang-Chi - 75M OW / Domestic: 224M + International: 207M = Worldwide: 431M
Eternals - 71M OW / Domestic: 163M + International: 236M = Worldwide: 399M *
Spider-Man: NWH
- 253M OW / Domestic: 253M + International: 334M = 587M * (Ongoing BO run)

Top 10 MCU Opening Weekends:

1. Avengers: EG - 357M
2. Spider-Man: NWH - 260M
3. Avengers: IW - 257M
4. Avengers - 207M
5. Black Panther - 202M
6. Avengers: AOU - 191M
7. Captain America: CW - 179M
8. Iron Man 3 - 174M
9. Captain Marvel - 153M
10. GOTG 2 - 146M
 
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I think the biggest issue with these predictions is that China is a wild card at the moment. And given rising tensions between the US and China, expecting China to welcome Hollywood imports seems like a mistake.

I can tell you right now, Thor ain't getting a release date based on the past year. And without China, Thor has no chance of even getting close to a billion.

Yeah, Spidey NWH is one thing, but I can't see a Thor fourquel generating the same kind of buzz and hype as a movie bringing back Tobey and Andrew plus the villains from their movies.
 
I think the biggest issue with these predictions is that China is a wild card at the moment. And given rising tensions between the US and China, expecting China to welcome Hollywood imports seems like a mistake.

I can tell you right now, Thor ain't getting a release date based on the past year. And without China, Thor has no chance of even getting close to a billion.
I remember back in 2017 the BO for Ragnarok also being grossly underestimated but it still managed to bring in 850M off the back of The Dark World. Since Ragnarok scored 122M in China it’s for sure a massive chunk missing but we’ll see how things are looking in July both regarding the pandemic and China’s willingness to allow MCU movies once again.

Yeah, Spidey NWH is one thing, but I can't see a Thor fourquel generating the same kind of buzz and hype as a movie bringing back Tobey and Andrew plus the villains from their movies.
It doesn’t need to generate the same level of buzz as SM:NWH. It’s gonna be it’s own thing and I’m sure it will be massive in its own right.

There’s a reason why Thor was the first MCU character to get a 4th movie. Thor’s popularity has grown leaps and bounds since Ragnarok, IW and EG. Not to mention that TLT will also feature the Guardians of the Galaxy which was shown to be a winning combination in IW. Plus a ton of other great stuff as you know.
 
Not because it's main star has nothing else?
 
Not because it's main star has nothing else?
C’mon now. That’s a bit harsh.
- Escape From Spiderhead
- Thor: Love and Thunder
- Extraction 2
- Hulk Hogan biopic
- Mad Max: Furiosa
- Down Under Cover
 
Who needs China?

NWH is heading towards 1.7 billion.
 
Shang chi came close. I could see Eternals opening between 80-90...maybe 100.

Spider-Man will be huge and I've been predicting that it would be the highest grossing film of the year since day 1. Both Dom & overseas. That's your first 100 million opener. I believe everything after Spider-Man will open to over 100 million (minus Ant-Man most likely).


Spidey has always been the one. Even without you know who in this movie I think it atleast opens on par with FFH based on the story that was left off. Now on to Doctor Strange which I think will open atleast between 90-120ish
 
Looking ahead and DS:MOM is the next one in line. Doctor Strange popularity has increased since the first film, specially with IW, What If and even SM:NWH. The film will also feature a reinvigorated Scarlett Witch coming off of WandaVision. There’s the Multiverse angle with a couple of well known MCU characters rumored to be in it, as well as some sizable multiverse cameos that should get people’s attention. For all the multiverse shenanigans and rumored cameos we shall see how the film itself holds up since it went through a rough production.

My early prediction is at least 120M opening weekend.

* Providing the latest omicron wave in the pandemic eventually peaks and fades away gradually, things should ease up everywhere in time for its release in theatres.
 
Looking ahead and DS:MOM is the next one in line. Doctor Strange popularity has increased since the first film, specially with IW, What If and even SM:NWH. The film will also feature a reinvigorated Scarlett Witch coming off of WandaVision. There’s the Multiverse angle with a couple of well known MCU characters rumored to be in it, as well as some sizable multiverse cameos that should get people’s attention. For all the multiverse shenanigans and rumored cameos we shall see how the film itself holds up since it went through a rough production.

My early prediction is at least 120M opening weekend.

* Providing the latest omicron wave in the pandemic eventually peaks and fades away gradually, things should ease up everywhere in time for its release in theatres.
I think if we are dealing with a fading Omicron then MoM can do over a billion. Otherwise could be tough.
 
I think if we are dealing with a fading Omicron then MoM can do over a billion. Otherwise could be tough.
In theory that should be the case in May.
 
Black Widow - 80M OW / Domestic: 183M + International: 195M = Worldwide: 379M (Disney+)
Shang-Chi - 75M OW / Domestic: 224M + International: 207M = Worldwide: 431M
Eternals - 71M OW / Domestic: 164M + International: 236M = Worldwide: 400M
Spider-Man: NWH - 260M OW / Domestic: 470M + International: 587M = 1.05B * (Ongoing BO run)

Yep well on it's way of easily passing 1B. Maybe by Monday next week even... and without factoring in China at all which is even more remarkable. I think that it not only has to do with the fact that the movie was a success but also that people are also more than willing to go to theaters.
 
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Black Widow - 80M OW / Domestic: 183M + International: 195M = Worldwide: 379M (Disney+)
Shang-Chi - 75M OW / Domestic: 224M + International: 207M = Worldwide: 431M
Eternals - 71M OW / Domestic: 164M + International: 236M = Worldwide: 400M
Spider-Man: NWH - 260M OW / Domestic: 405M + International: 490M = 895M * (Ongoing BO run)

Yep well on it's way of easily passing 1B. Maybe by Monday next week even... and without factoring in China at all which is even more remarkable. I think that it not only has to do with the fact that the movie was a success but also that people are also more than willing to go to theaters.
...for the right film, that is. The prospect of seeing characters returning from previous pre-MCU Spider-Man films was exactly the type of movie that got people back to theaters in droves, but those numbers are going to drop exponentially once the fervor over No Way Home has died down and they probably won't go back up again until March when The Batman comes out, although I don't think anyone is expecting No Way Home numbers for that one.
 
I hope MiM and L&T can also do big numbers.
 
The films in the MCU to make the Billionaires club are

1. The Avengers
2. Iron Man 3
3. Avengers Age Of Ultron
4. Captain America: Civil War
5. Black Panther
6. Avengers Infinity War
7. Captain Marvel
8. Avengers Endgame
9. Spider-Man Far From Home
10. Spider-Man No Way Home

Let's see who will be next...
 

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