MCU Box Office

[KevTravels]

Poor Ant-Man. It'll need a huge prayer to even reach 500 million as its final gross.

 

[psylockolussus]

Whats alarming about this is the potential boX office success of the reboots for Blade and Fantastic 4 in less than 2 years. If someone like Ant-Man who appeared in Civil War and Endgame and also headlined two solo movies prior to this, could gross less than $500 million worldwide, what is going to happen for Blade and Fantastic 4? Blade and Fantastic 4 have no Civil War/Endgame boost, and won't play a major/supporting role in the other mcu films before their first mcu film is released.

 

[HammerDown]

Quantumanina was the third film of the franchise and, for most accounts, it was bad.

Blade will be an origin story and will likely have a much smaller budget plus the fact that the character is well known with 3 films to its own already in its cinematic history and this new iteration, lead by a good actor and have it be inside the MCU should significantly lift hits box office chances. I think it could do over Ant-Man 1(530M) with a similar budget (130M).

F4 will similarly be another origin story of a group of well known characters inside the MCU. Being a team movie and dealing with bigger concepts it should have a bigger bugdet and I bet Marvel will be very careful with that franchise because it will definitely be a big one moving forward and so, I’m theory, less margin for error… Also F4 comes right before the first Avengers film in a long time and that in itself should be a solid boost because it more than likely will lead directly into ATKD.

 

[Sithborg]

Whats alarming about this is the potential boX office success of the reboots for Blade and Fantastic 4 in less than 2 years. If someone like Ant-Man who appeared in Civil War and Endgame and also headlined two solo movies prior to this, could gross less than $500 million worldwide, what is going to happen for Blade and Fantastic 4? Blade and Fantastic 4 have no Civil War/Endgame boost, and won't play a major/supporting role in the other mcu films before their first mcu film is released.

I mean, they were never a guaranteed $600 million success.

 

[psylockolussus]

Quantumanina was the third film of the franchise and, for most accounts, it was bad.

Blade will be an origin story and will likely have a much smaller budget plus the fact that the character is well known with 3 films to its own already in its cinematic history and this new iteration, lead by a good actor and have it be inside the MCU should significantly lift hits box office chances. I think it could do over Ant-Man 1(530M) with a similar budget (130M).

F4 will similarly be another origin story of a group of well known characters inside the MCU. Being a team movie and dealing with bigger concepts it should have a bigger bugdet and I bet Marvel will be very careful with that franchise because it will definitely be a big one moving forward and so, I’m theory, less margin for error… Also F4 comes right before the first Avengers film in a long time and that in itself should be a solid boost because it more than likely will lead directly into ATKD.

Time will tell.

 

[HammerDown]

MCU Phase 5 - Worldwide

AM&TW: Quantumania - 476M
GOTG 3 - 835M *
The Marvels - ?
Captain America: BNW - ?
Thunderbolts - ?
Blade - ?

*Ongoing

 

[psylockolussus]

MCU Phase 5 - Worldwide

AM&TW: Quantumania - 476M
GOTG 3 - 835M *
The Marvels - Nov. 10th, 2023
Captain America: BNW - May 3rd, 2024
Thunderbolts - Jul. 26th, 2024
Blade - Sep. 6th, 2024

*Ongoing

Most of those dates are already changed.

 

[Iceman]

I really hope The Marvels can be a big success.

 

[Zyraquis]

I think it will be between Antman and GOTG. Like 500m-600m, which I see as a decent result. Actually despite all the mud shots at it, Antman’s domestic wasn’t that bad, it is the intl sales that collapsed. It may end up as the 4th highest domestic gross for Disney this year.

 

[psylockolussus]

I think it will be between Antman and GOTG. Like 500m-600m, which I see as a decent result. Actually despite all the mud shots at it, Antman’s domestic wasn’t that bad, it is the intl sales that collapsed. It may end up as the 4th highest domestic gross for Disney this year.

With the recent boX office trackings, 500 million would be a win at this point.

 

[Zyraquis]

Yeah. Tracking suggests $300m WW is the ceiling right now.

 

[psylockolussus]

There hasn't been a massive film worldwide since Barbenheimer, so that $300 million is quite too low.

 

[Iceman]

Looks like the glory days are over for now.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah. Tracking suggests $300m WW is the ceiling right now.

Wow, that would be unbelievably low. Could be 1/4 of the first film’s WW gross then.

 

[psylockolussus]

Looks like the glory days are over for now.

I think its a bump on the road, but they can still recover. They need to be wise with their decisions though in the future.

I doubt people are really gonna care to watch Echo, What If? and Agatha neXt year in streaming.

 

[Iceman]

I think its a bump on the road, but they can still recover. They need to be wise with their decisions though in the future.

I doubt people are really gonna care to watch Echo, What If? and Agatha neXt year in streaming.

Not only are they not going to watch, these projects will contribute to the audience view that not everything needs to be watched anymore, and that then spills over to the films. The MCU needs to string some big hits together soon.

 

[psylockolussus]

Not only are they not going to watch, these projects will contribute to the audience view that not everything needs to be watched anymore, and that then spills over to the films. The MCU needs to string some big hits together soon.

Deadpool should be a hit. Captain America without Chris Evans and most especially Thunderbolts aren't guaranteed.

What sucks the most is the reboots for 4 and Blade are just few years away after being delayed so many times, and we might not see those two ips do well at the boX office, if Marvel Studios doesn't bounce back neXt year, and the public interest for Marvel movies isn't strong anymore, to recoup the budget of these eXpensive films.

Another reason why I'm hoping Thunderbolts to be canceled. So any goodwill from Deadpool, would benefit Blade or 4, whichever comes out first in 2025.

 

[Iceman]

Deadpool should be a hit. Captain America without Chris Evans and most especially Thunderbolts aren't guaranteed.

What sucks the most is the reboots for 4 and Blade are just few years away after being delayed so many times, and we might not see those two ips do well at the boX office, if Marvel Studios doesn't bounce back neXt year, and the public interest for Marvel movies isn't strong anymore, to recoup the budget of these eXpensive films.

Another reason why I'm hoping Thunderbolts to be canceled. So any goodwill from Deadpool, would benefit Blade or 4, whichever comes out first in 2025.

Deapool has so much going on that people are bound to be interested. Word will get out about all the possible crazy cameos. It's hard to be 100% confident about anything else but hopefully they are all good and can put out exciting trailers.

I also want the MCU to be in good shape ahead of the arrival of these properties so that they can do as well as possible, particularly X-Men.

 

[psylockolussus]

Deapool has so much going on that people are bound to be interested. Word will get out about all the possible crazy cameos. It's hard to be 100% confident about anything else but hopefully they are all good and can put out exciting trailers.

I also want the MCU to be in good shape ahead of the arrival of these properties so that they can do as well as possible, particularly X-Men.

Well I hope they bounce back in 2024 (unlikely with those shows which are probably eXpensive to make as well), but I hope the two films (Deadpool/Captain America) does well at the boX office.

 

[Lip]

Deadpool most likely won't disappoint at the BO. But it's quite easy to just rely on fan service and nostalgia. If this movie doesn't have a strong story and gets bad or mixed reception, it's going to be even wors for the upcoming movies, regardless of Deadpool performing well.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Marvel Cinematic Universe​	Domestic Gross (Adjusted)​
Iron Man​	$467.2M​
The Incredible Hulk​	$197.7M​
Iron Man 2​	$417.0M​
Thor​	$240.4M​
Captain America: The First Avenger​	$234.6M​
Marvel’s The Avengers​	$824.6M​
Iron Man 3​	$529.7M​
Thor: The Dark World​	$267.3M​
Captain America: The Winter Soldier​	$334.8M​
Guardians of the Galaxy​	$430.0M​
Avengers: Age of Ultron​	$573.3M​
Ant-Man​	$225.1M​
Captain America: Civil War​	$496.8M​
Doctor Strange​	$283.1M​
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2​	$457.6M​
Spider-Man: Homecoming​	$392.3M​
Thor: Ragnarok​	$369.8M​
Black Panther​	$809.2M​
Avengers: Infinity War​	$784.6M​
Ant-Man and the Wasp​	$250.4M​
Captain Marvel​	$490.7M​
Avengers: Endgame​	$986.8M​
Spider-Man: Far From Home​	$448.9M​
Black Widow​	$185.9M​
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings​	$227.4M​
Eternals​	$166.9M​
Spider-Man: No Way Home​	$821.3M​
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness​	$411.3M​
Thor: Love and Thunder​	$343.3M​
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever​	$453.8M​
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania​	$214.5M​
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3​	$359.0M​
The Marvels*​	TBD​
Average (2008-2023)​	$428.0M​
Phase 1 average (2008-2012)​	$396.9M​
Phase 2 average (2013-2015)​	$393.4M​
Phase 3 average (2016-2019)​	$524.6M​
Phase 4 average (2021-2022)​	$372.8M​
Phase 5 average (2023- )​	$286.8M​
sub-franchise first average (2008-2023)​	$369.7M​
sub-franchise sequel average (2008-2023)​	$473.3M​
first sequel average​	$401.6M​
second sequel average​	$510.8M​
third sequel average​	$665.0M​

Data source: The Numbers - All Time Domestic Inflation Adjusted Box Office

Keep in mind there's no Avengers for Phase 4 or Phase 5 yet, though other upcoming movies like The Marvels and other non-Avengers releases will drag down the average from where it stands now.

 

[SuperT]

Why is no one factoring in the actors strike when looking at box office performance. A lot of the marketing, hype and heavy lifting for these movies comes with the actors doing press, red carpets, events, etc. and there's been none of that for any movie since Barbie.

Traditional ad marketing can only do so much when you can't even leverage your own cast, which is a shame especially for this one given it's fully female led. That's going to have a HUGE impact on every movie releasing for the rest of the year.

 

[Wildcard]

Yeah, the strike is why I look at every under-performing movie as a "worst case" scenario rather than it being something that was going to happen regardless. If not for the strike, a lot of movies would've made significantly more money, especially the ones that turned out to be better than many thought they would be.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

I don't think cast interviews matter that much. People who watch those are already invested in seeing the movie. TV ads are what reach the most amount of people.

 

[psylockolussus]

People will watch what appeals to them regardless if its heavily promoted by the cast or not. In this case, I don't think there would be a big difference if Brie Larson and company are heavily promoting this right now. It would help, but not in a way it would help the boX office numbers so much.