November 6th, 2012: Campaigning, Early Voting, Election Day, And The Results! II

[SV Fan]

Was that the actual campaign running those ads or another group? I can't remember....

it was put out by Romney's campaign team

I should probably add when I talk about Penn. That they go their in the last week and make a play for it when they didn't bother for 2 months.

 

[SV Fan]

I think that most people just didn't expect the level of micro-campaigning that the Obama campaign performed. Seriously, the polls had Romney leading independents by double digits, youth turnout was expected to be down, he supposedly caught up with women and had double digit leads among men. Add in the fact that Obama's policies just weren't very popular and he had a bad economy still to deal with. With that kind of formula, any campaign should expect to win, because that is what typically happens. But none of what the polls suggested to happen, didn't happen. Romney only won independents by 4%, he lost women by huge margins as opposed to the single digits, there was a stealth turnout effort with African-Americans, youth turnout didn't drop, etc.

Independents generally are people who vote for the same party most of the time, but on odd occasion they might flip a vote. I think the problem with looking at the independent vote and how strong Romney had a grasp of them is how many "independents" are right leaning Republicans who just don't want to identify with the party.

Instead of going after independents, they should have went after people who label themselves as moderates

 

[Burgundy LaRue]

I think Obama's internal numbers would have shown a slight lead going into the home stretch. I think what kept things on course for him was the first debate. He and Axelrod saw the numbers coming out of the debate and it was at that point that Obama decided to be a bit more aggressive in his approach. He dug in and started fighting. Romney got a bit comfortable and it proved costly.

Ultimately, however, it came down to Romney believing that the national polls skewed toward Democratic voters and as such, assuming they had the inside track. And while some polls did, other polls skewed for the GOP and others played it straight. Had they looked at ALL the numbers, they would have known they were in trouble.

They insulated themselves from common sense and bought the snake oil Karl Rove was selling. I think they caught on in the last week before the election, but it was too late by then. The Romney campaign was fatally flawed from the beginning.

The GOP's use of social media is pretty anemic, too. Someone from Obama's camp, Axelrod maybe, noted that the Romney campaign thought they had accomplished a lot by contacting 75,000 people in Ohio one day. The Obama team had reached 375,000 Ohioans in the same period. Obama For America field offices in Florida outnumbered Romney's 5 to 1, IIRC. They kept in touch with anyone who volunteered for them in 2008. They didn't just look for the same voters, they also reached out to potential new voters.

Romney's last ditch effort for PA made no sense. Only one poll regularly showed him in the lead there, and that poll was run by GOP friendly units. He would have been better served stickly solely to VA, OH, and FL. Those were the three closest races. Romney still would have lost, 272 - 266, but at least that strategy makes sense, along with going for NH. That was some bad campaigning right there.

 

[SV Fan]

Romney's last ditch effort for PA made no sense. Only one poll regularly showed him in the lead there, and that poll was run by GOP friendly units. He would have been better served stickly solely to VA, OH, and FL. Those were the three closest races. Romney still would have lost, 272 - 266, but at least that strategy makes sense, along with going for NH. That was some bad campaigning right there.

Personally i think one of the Romney campaigns worst moves was they had so much fricken money why not invest in states that are long shots for a few months like Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Do a couple campaign stops in those places you put Obama's team on the defense and water down their resources

I get wanting to put money in states you are more likely to win but there comes a point showing 1 more commercial isn't going to make a difference because the market is over saturated.

 

[Anita18]

Independents generally are people who vote for the same party most of the time, but on odd occasion they might flip a vote. I think the problem with looking at the independent vote and how strong Romney had a grasp of them is how many "independents" are right leaning Republicans who just don't want to identify with the party.

Instead of going after independents, they should have went after people who label themselves as moderates

According to this article, that's exactly what happened.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57547239/adviser-romney-shellshocked-by-loss/

State polls showed Romney winning big among independents. Historically, any candidate polling that well among independents wins. But as it turned out, many of those independents were former Republicans who now self-identify as independents. The state polls weren't oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans - there just weren't as many Republicans this time because they were calling themselves independents.

I myself have a friend who calls herself Libertarian but she'll always vote Republican. She was never a true Independent to start with.

Ultimately, however, it came down to Romney believing that the national polls skewed toward Democratic voters and as such, assuming they had the inside track. And while some polls did, other polls skewed for the GOP and others played it straight. Had they looked at ALL the numbers, they would have known they were in trouble.

Yeah, that is what happens when you don't understand where your information is coming from.

 

[Burgundy LaRue]

Yeah, that is what happens when you don't understand where your information is coming from.

 

[AndrewGilkison]

I think Anita meant the Romney Campaign didn't understand where their info was coming from.

 

[SV Fan]

According to this article, that's exactly what happened.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57547239/adviser-romney-shellshocked-by-loss/

Here is the Pew Research final poll which had Obama +3

Political moderates now favor Obama by 21 points (56%-35%).

All results are Obama-Romney

IDEOLOGY
Conservative 22 73
Moderate 56 34
Liberal 89 4

PARTY ID
Republican 5 93
Democrat 95 4
Independent 41 44

PARTY AND IDEOLOGY
Conservative Republican 3 96
Mod/Lib Republican 14 82
Mod/Cons Democrat 93 6
Liberal Democrat 98 1

If you look where Romney lost it was losing 22% of conservatives and the Moderates

 

[Burgundy LaRue]

I think Anita meant the Romney Campaign didn't understand where their info was coming from.

Probably. I read it over several times and couldn't make sense of it. It's been a long night, I should be in bed by now!

 

[Anita18]

I think Anita meant the Romney Campaign didn't understand where their info was coming from.

Yes. Maybe you should go to sleep.

 

[Reek]

 

[Arc-Light]

According to this article, that's exactly what happened.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57547239/adviser-romney-shellshocked-by-loss/



I myself have a friend who calls herself Libertarian but she'll always vote Republican. She was never a true Independent to start with.


Yeah, that is what happens when you don't understand where your information is coming from.

Sadly they created that reality on their own, " the great old white rich man " bubble...they listened to the far right media, big mistake, and the big kicker was all that super-PAC monies they received, they thought they could buy a win.....the thought that they didn't think they could even lose was hilarious and pathetic at the same time....

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

I think the moderate/independent distinction is important. A lot of so-called "independents" aren't really. A lot of them are conservative-leaning Tea Partiers and Libertarians who don't identify with the GOP establishment, but they'll go back to the well and vote for them every time anyway. "Moderates" or centrists are the true independents.

EDIT: Oh, I see SV already touched on that point.

 

[Burgundy LaRue]

Yes. Maybe you should go to sleep.

I wasn't trying to be funny. I sincerely misread your statement and acknowledged that. I don't know what's so humorous about it.

 

[Kelly]

AP JUST RELEASED: FLORIDA INDEED GOES TO OBAMA.

Damn, ALL SWING STATES BUT ONE.....wake up GOP....

 

[Darthphere]

Good job Florida, it only took us a week.

 

[Kelly]

lol...

 

[Kelly]

it was put out by Romney's campaign team

I should probably add when I talk about Penn. That they go their in the last week and make a play for it when they didn't bother for 2 months.

Oh, ok.....yeah, the ground game in those swing states was south of sad as far as the Romney team. When you are going against an incumbent, you have to solidly set up that ground game, because the incumbent never closes down their ground game in these states.

 

[SV Fan]

AP JUST RELEASED: FLORIDA INDEED GOES TO OBAMA.

Damn, ALL SWING STATES BUT ONE.....wake up GOP....

http://www.idigitaltimes.com/articl...12-obama-wins-state-palm-beach-vote-count.htm

Florida election results were still not fully tabulated as of 11:00 a.m. on Saturday morning, despite the fact that Mitt Romney conceded the race on Thursday afternoon. Palm Beach County did its part to help state officials finish the job. At 4:45 a.m. on Saturday Palm Beach County election officials completed the process of going through thousands of absentee and provisional ballots.

On Friday afternoon, Barack Obama only had a small lead over Mitt Romney by about 60,000 votes out of 8.4 million cast in Florida. The margin is so slim that state officials decided they will not officially announce a winner until Nov. 20, which only caused more frustration among residents who feel like they’ve becoming the running joke as the only state in the nation that hasn’t yet declared a winner in the presidential race.

 

[Darthphere]

Oh Florida. Thank God you guys aren't waiting on us to decide this thing.

 

[Matt Mortem]

WTF Florida?

 

[SV Fan]

I just found this article

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/10/obama-wins-florida-topping-romney-in-final-tally/

President Barack Obama was declared the winner of Florida's 29 electoral votes Saturday, ending a four-day count with a razor-thin margin that narrowly avoided an automatic recount that would have brought back memories of 2000.

No matter the outcome, Obama had already clinched re-election and now has 332 electoral votes to Romney's 206.

The Florida Secretary of State's Office said that with almost 100 percent of the vote counted, Obama led Republican challenger Mitt Romney 50 percent to 49.1 percent, a difference of about 74,000 votes. That was over the half-percent margin where a computer recount would have been automatically ordered unless Romney had waived it.

 

[Marx]

I just heard about President Obama winning florida too. The GOP really does need to wake up.

 

[Matt Mortem]

This is kinda interesting. Neil DeGrasse Tyson posted it. Sorry if it was already posted elsewhere

 

[terry78]

Moot point, but still good to know.