Thats the standard aging curve and an assumed inflation rate of 5% per year. In order to live up to the contract, Bautista has to be something like a +3.5 win player next year, and then age normally each year after that. Or, to put it into 2010 player terms, Bautista essentially needs to be about as good as
Casey McGehee was last year. McGehee hit .285/.337/.464 while playing below average defense at third base. Do you think Bautista is capable of
that next year? (If he moves to the outfield, hed need to be somewhat above average defensively out there or hit a little bit better than this, but you get the idea.)
The Jays arent paying for 2010 Bautista. Theyre paying for 2010 McGehee, and our expectations should be adjusted to reflect that. He doesnt have to hit 50 home runs again to justify his contract. He doesnt even have to hit 40. He just has to be a good hitter with a bit of defensive value and stay relatively healthy, because thats generally what the Blue Jays are paying for.
I mean damn, we havent even started spring training games yet... 
