Official Spider-Man 3 Box Office Thread - Predictions and Forecasts

[TLH]

$747k for Tuesday.

 

[dodus]

I feel it would have been thin if done in two movies.

Also, Sergeant couldn't think of a good halfway climax.

I don't know man, even the most ardent fans would err on the side of SM-3 having plenty of story to go around. And Sargeant not being able to come up with a good halfway climax has to be the biggest "durr" in the history of source material-to-film translation. All he had to do was watch TAS, or pick up the phone and call the nearest 14-year old boy who reads comics.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Not ending scene, climax. They are not the same thing. Climax is highest point of suspense. Ending is when it is finished. I think he couldn't make a good final fight sequence.

It had plenty of story, but stretch it two films, and you need even more. That is a fine line and I don't think it could have done it as well as 1 movie.

 

[Carp Man]

Tuesdays #'s are in. Updates below.

 

[TLH]

But it isn't the same thing. Comics build upon each other in a different way. Comic stories are much more contained than a book trilogy like LOTR is. By trying to span the movie into two, you run the risk of running out of story to tell. That is why books are different. They are already there and expanded upon. Comic stories are more contained like movies.

Spider-Man 3 felt very much like a comic arc to me. Thats another thing I liked about it. I feel it would have been thin if done in two movies.

Also, Sergeant couldn't think of a good halfway climax.

Wouldn't the birth of Venom be a sufficient climax/ending for 3 leading into 4? I mean, seriously...why was Sergeant looking for the climax at the END of 3 to lead into 4? That makes no sense. You could have had Symbiote Peter do something truly awful--and I mean worse then just hitting MJ--maybe kill Sandman? That might have put him over the edge and led to the church scene for the finale.

Oh well.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Wouldn't the birth of Venom be a sufficient climax/ending for 3 leading into 4? I mean, seriously...why was Sergeant looking for the climax at the END of 3 to lead into 4? That makes no sense. You could have had Symbiote Peter do something truly awful--and I mean worse then just hitting MJ--maybe kill Sandman? That might have put him over the edge and led to the church scene for the finale.

Oh well.

Under no circumstances should Spidey succeed in murder. NEVER!!! I will repeat NEVER!!!

I can accept the attempt, but he should never succeed at it. Accidental deaths are also fine. BUT NOT HIM KILLING ON PURPOSE!

Again, I think it works better as is. Also, Venom finale is not a climax. It is an ending.

Take Matrix Reloaded. The scene where he meets the Architect and saves Trinity is a climax. When he kills the sentinels and is put into a coma and we see the human Smith next to him, that is an ending. Not the same thing.

Back to discussion. I think it works better as 1 movie. By this mentality, ok, we have Venom for SM4. All right. What does Venom do for 2hr? Stalk him all movie? That would get old. You need more. That is the problem.

 

[The Guardian]

How can I be so sure Spidey 3 won't make $350 million in June? Because at Spider-Man 3's current rate of box office production it won't gross $30 million in the remaining 25 days this month. It would have to gross over $1 million bucks per day. It made $750k today. You do the math.

It MIGHT reach $350 million, but not in June, if at all.

Let's work this out:

Tue (750k) Wed (750k) Thur (750k) = $2.25 million
Fri (1.2 million) Sat (2.0 million) Sun (1.3 million) = $4.5 million
------------------------------------------------------------
Total box office gross after week of the 10th
$325,750,000 million

Mon (500k) Tue (500k) Wed (500k) Thur (500k) = $2 million
Fri (850k) Sat (1.2 million) Sun (900k) = $2.95 million
------------------------------------------------------------
Total box office gross after week of the 17th
$330,700,000 million

Mon (350k) Tue (350k) Wed (350k) Thur (350k) = $1.4 million
Fri (600k) Sat (900k) Sun (600k) = $2.1 million
------------------------------------------------------------
Total box office gross after week of the 24th
$334,250,000 million

Mon (200k) Tue (200k) Wed (200k) Thur (200k) = $800k
Fri (400k) Sat (650k) Sun (400k) = $1.450 million
------------------------------------------------------------
Total box office gross after week of the 30th
$336,500,000 million

And I'm even counting July 1st as a day in June.

Won't happen, sorry to say. I'd love to see it happen but it just simply won't. The numbers will not permit.

YEAH YOU'RE MOST LIKELY RIGHT, I KNEW IT WAS A STRETCH, BUT A MAN CAN DREAM, CAN'T HE??? I'LL STILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND SAY $340M BY THE END OF JUNE, IT MAY STILL BE A BIT OF A STRETCH, BUT DEPENDING ON THE WEEKENDS, I THINK IT'S DOABLE, DON'T ARGUE WITH ME, I KNOW ABOUT THESE THINGS!!!up:

 

[Visionary]

I wonder how much SM3 will be up to worldwide when Paris Hilton gets out of jail.

 

[The Guardian]

I wonder how much SM3 will be up to worldwide when Paris Hilton gets out of jail.

LOL, I'M NOT EVEN GONNA TOUCH THAT ONE!!!up:

 

[TLH]

When does she get out of jail?

 

[Spider-Fan]

Who Cares!!!!

 

[nintendo nerd]

I also think SM3 faired well at the box office b/c it was the first blockbuster of the Summer. May releases usually guarantee’s major success.

SM1 was released on May too. May 17, but May, still.

 

[nintendo nerd]

Tuesdays #'s are in. Updates below.

Looking at your updates, there's no way Shrek or POTC, will beat spidey.

 

[GL's Light]

SM1 was released on May too. May 17, but May, still.

SM 1 was released on May 3 actually - the first weekend of May in 2002.

 

[SLYspyder]

SM1 was released on May too. May 17, but May, still.

um, Sm1 was released First friday. May 3rd 2002

 

[Cmill216]

After their 12th days of release....

Spider-Man 3
$247,287,180

Shrek 3
$220,983,194

Pirates 3
$225,491,113

------

After Spidey and Shrek's 19th days of release....

Spider-Man 3
$286,385,002

Shrek 3
$261,139,048

 

[TLH]

After their 12th days of release....

Spider-Man 3
$247,287,180

Shrek 3
$220,983,194

Pirates 3
$225,491,113

------

After Spidey and Shrek's 19th days of release....

Spider-Man 3
$286,385,002

Shrek 3
$261,139,048

That about says it all. Pirates 3 will probably be in the middle on the 19th day.

 

[DACrowe]

Actually after seeing the Pirates sequel take what should be a thin storyline and spread it between two long movies to the point where you see it tearing at the seams...maybe not doing two films was a good idea.

 

[Stupify_me]

Not ending scene, climax. They are not the same thing. Climax is highest point of suspense. Ending is when it is finished. I think he couldn't make a good final fight sequence.

It had plenty of story, but stretch it two films, and you need even more. That is a fine line and I don't think it could have done it as well as 1 movie.

It wouldn't have been hard at all to come up with more story there was plenty left for Venom to do since he basically had no story at all in the movie. He became Venom and then got his ass kicked less than 25 minutes latter.

 

[dodus]

It wouldn't have been hard at all to come up with more story there was plenty left for Venom to do since he basically had no story at all in the movie. He became Venom and then got his ass kicked less than 25 minutes latter.

I agree. They virtually wrote an entire story from scratch for SM-2, themed around one comic issue (and featuring an unrelated villain). Here they have loads of source material just begging to be beefed up, stretched out, tinkered with and added to. I always thought Sargeant did such a great job on SM-2, maybe it's someone else who deserves the credit.

 

[Visionary]

After their 12th days of release....

Spider-Man 3
$247,287,180

Shrek 3
$220,983,194

Pirates 3
$225,491,113

------

After Spidey and Shrek's 19th days of release....

Spider-Man 3
$286,385,002

Shrek 3
$261,139,048

Am I the only one here who thinks that Pirates/Shrek are both going to make more than SM3 domestically and overseas/worldwide? And if they do, I don't want to see anyone crying about it, like I know you will. ...

 

[Downhere]

Am I the only one here who thinks that Pirates/Shrek are both going to make more than SM3 domestically and overseas/worldwide? And if they do, I don't want to see anyone crying about it, like I know you will. ...

Uh, nope, SM3 will take the domestic crown. POTC 3 is opened smaller and is having heavy drops which leads to a finish under SM3's total. Shrek 3 is in the same boat and will have competition with Surf's Up. I think it is safe to say that SM3 will finish with 340 while the other two could go as high as 320 but that's about it. Worldwide is a different story but Spidey has shown it is doing amazing worldwide and should finish at 900 million, which will probably give it the second biggest of the 3, with POTC 3 first and Shrek 3 last.

 

[Kargo Warrior]

I dont know why everybody thinks that Pirates will have more worldwide???

In the first two weekends worldwide SP3 had 626.5 millions Pirates had 624..

And Spidey has had awesome legs worldwide so i dont see how will Pirates make more worldwide especially since Shrek and Oceans and FF4 are opening worlwide and Pirates has terrible legs domestically.

 

[Spider-Fan]

It wouldn't have been hard at all to come up with more story there was plenty left for Venom to do since he basically had no story at all in the movie. He became Venom and then got his ass kicked less than 25 minutes latter.

From what I saw, Venom did most of the ass kicking.

All I will say to end my argument is Pirates and Matrix. Having one long sequel would (or in Pirates case, one movie instead of stretching into two...could have been done easily, many things in AWE were not even neccessary) have served the movies better. Back to back sequels are not easy, and I think this movie worked just fine as one. It didn't need two movies. I saw enough.

 

[Stupify_me]

From what I saw, Venom did most of the ass kicking.

All I will say to end my argument is Pirates and Matrix. Having one long sequel would (or in Pirates case, one movie instead of stretching into two...could have been done easily, many things in AWE were not even neccessary) have served the movies better. Back to back sequels are not easy, and I think this movie worked just fine as one. It didn't need two movies. I saw enough.

The difference is that Spiderman has decades of comics and decades of story to tell the could easily of done this in two movies and both movies would of been better than this one. I enjoyed 3 but wasn't up to the normal Spiderman standard.