Box Office predictions thread-2007 Edition

[terry78]

Yeah, it does seem like everyone is focusing on May with the big three...there's like three more months of stuff coming out I'm waiting to see.

 

[Galactus]

From Box Office Report:

Summer 2007 Box Office Predictions

I've put together my early predictions for the summer movie season. I wanted to have a bit of a write-up to go with them, but couldn't find the time to do it before Spider-Man 3 opened today. Please also note that my final opening weekend predictions in the months ahead may change a bit (especially for some of the lower films on the list and films opening in July and August).


My predicted top 20 (as of May 04, 2007)


1. Spider-Man 3 (May 04) - $400 m total ($145 m opening)

2. Pirates of the Caribbean 3 (May 25) - $350 m total ($150 m 4-Day opening)

3. Shrek 3 (May 18) - $325 m total ($88 m opening)

4. Harry Potter 5 (Jul 13) - $250 m total ($98 m opening)

5. Transformers (Jul 04) - $225 m total ($65 m 3-Day opening)

6. Ratatouille (Jun 29) - $210 m total ($55 m opening)

7. Rush Hour 3 (Aug 10) - $180 m total ($60 m opening)

8. The Bourne Ultimatum (Aug 03) - $160 m total ($55 m opening)

9. Fantastic Four 2 (Jun 15) - $150 m total ($60 m opening)

10. Evan Almighty (Jun 22) - $140 m total ($42 m opening)

11. Ocean's 13 (Jun 08) - $120 m total ($40 m opening)

12. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Jul 20) - $110 m total ($34 m opening)

13. The Simpsons Movie (Jul 27) - $105 m total ($38 m opening)

14. Live Free Or Die Hard (Jun 27) - $100 m total ($32 m 3-Day opening)

15. Knocked Up (Jun 01) - $95 m total ($25 m opening)

16. Hairspray (Jul 20) - $85 m total ($26 m opening)

17. Surf's Up (Jun 08) - $80 m total ($23 m opening)

18. Stardust (Aug 10) - $70 m total ($19 m opening)

19. Underdog (Aug 03) - $65 m total ($18 m opening)

20. 1408 (Jul 13) - $60 m total ($18 m opening)

 

[Cinemaman]

I guess TOP5 of summer blockbusters this summer (I mean June-August) will most likely looks so:

1. Harry Potter 5 - $268m

2. Transformers - $201m

3. Ratatouille - $189m

4. The Bourne Ultimatum - $156m

5. Fantastic Four 2 - $141m

 

[Hunter Rider]

I think you're underestimating FF2 b/c you didn't like the first,i will guarantee it makes more than FF1.

Also i'm expecting Ratatouille to really well,it looks amazing

 

[Tempest19]

The Top 15 Movies of the Summer

Here are the Weekend Warrior's preliminary summer predictions with things likely to change for some of them as we get closer to release and start seeing the marketing campaigns

1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony – May 4) - $405 – 415 million

2. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Disney – May 25) - $370 - $385 million

3. Shrek the Third (DreamWorks – May 18) - $350 - $370 million

4. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros. – July 13) - $250 – 270 million

5. Ratatouille (Disney/Pixar – June 29) - $230 – 250 million

6. Transformers (DreamWorks – July 4) - $205 – 220 million

7. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox – June 15) - $170 – 185 million

8. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal – Aug. 3) - $160 – 175 million

9. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry (Universal – July 20) - $135 - 150 million

10. Rush Hour 3 (New Line – Aug. 10) - $130 – 145 million

11. Ocean's 13 (Warner Bros. – June 8) - $120 - $130 million

12. Evan Almighty (Universal – June 22) - $120 – 130 million

13. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox – July 27) - $110 – 120 million

14. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox – June 29) - $105 - $120 million

15. Surf's Up (Sony – June 8) - $90 – 100 million
Knocked Up (Universal – June 1) - $90 – 100 million
Hairspray (New Line – July 20) - $90 – 100 million

If you want to read more about the summer movies and get up-to-date predictions as the summer progresses, check out The Weekend Warrior every Tuesday right here on ComingSoon.net![/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]

That seems to be 100% correct... hell, SM3 is already raking in the dough- big time! t:

 

[SLYspyder]

It's going to be really funny when Shrek 3 makes more money than Pirates and Spidey. The nerds are setting themselves up for huge disappointment. Spidey 3 has no chance of winning in my humble opinion, if anything I think everybody, including yours truely, are over predicting it and my prediction is at 340mil right now, Shrek has everything working for it. Why would Spidey 3 increase so much from the 2nd movie after the decress from the first? The fact is I love the Spidey movies and am totally looking forward to the 3rd one but Spidey series has shown no signs of growth at the boxoffice. The 2nd movie made less and sold less DVD's. And before people say Harry Potter 6000 grossed more than Harry Potter 4000 I'll say this, Harry Potter's movies haven't even come close to grossing as much as the Spider-Man movies in the U.S. Not even close. It's easier (but not easy) for that movie series to grow with certain chapters. The first Spidey grossed an amazing 404mil and the second made an amazing 374mil. Be happy when the 3rd grosses more than 300mil because that will be amazing and insure more Spider-Man movies.

Say it with me people; I may not like it but Shrek will make the most in the U.S and Pirates will make more overseas and Harry Potter will make more than Pirates overseas but doesn't have a chance in hell of winning in the U.S. because the Potter movies are more popular overseas. Spider-Man 3 will not make the most so I'll deal with it and just enjoy the movie.

You were saying?

 

[SLYspyder]

That seems to be 100% correct... hell, SM3 is already raking in the dough- big time! t:

Yes, but SM has a long road ahead towards $475M, which is what I hope it grosses domestically.

Crazy talk? Not at all. With SM1's multiplier, $531M would be the total gross of SM3. You can't make the same comparison with SM2 as it was released on a Wednesday. With DMC multiplier, SM3 ends up with $470M.

 

[Cinemaman]

I think you're underestimating FF2 b/c you didn't like the first,i will guarantee it makes more than FF1.

Also i'm expecting Ratatouille to really well,it looks amazing

Again, box office doesn't equal quality of movie. And I doubt it will make so much money because:

A) First movie didn't have good legs ($60m OW and only $156m domesticly).
B) It will have a lot of competition, from one side POTC3 and Ocean's 13 come out, from another - Ratatouille.

But let's not start another argue, which will end up without making any sense. Lets' just wait and see

Yeah, it looks good.

 

[Downhere]

I doubt Ocean's 13 will do much damage to FF2, considering the sequel dropped a great deal from its predecessor. I think FF2 will surprise many when it opens.