Official Spider-Man 3 Box Office Thread - Predictions and Forecasts

[Carp Man]

Third "Pirates" sets sail for record

Fri May 25, 2007 2:02AM BST

By Gina Keating
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - "Spider-Man 3" and "Shrek the Third" may have set opening weekend box office records this month, but Hollywood thinks the latest "Pirates of the Caribbean" film will steal a hefty chunk of the summer cinema season's treasure.

"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," which opens on Friday in 102 countries and territories is the final film in a trilogy that has so far grossed $1.7 billion (856 million pounds) at global box offices and has sold 40 million DVDs and home videos for the Walt Disney Co.

Advance ticket sales for the film were on par with the record-breaking $151 million debut earlier this month for Sony Corp.'s "Spider-Man 3," but the film's length -- nearly three hours with trailers -- will limit the number of times it is shown and could affect its 3-day total, said Jeff Bock, an analyst for box office tracking firm Exhibitor Relations.

But "At World's End" will be opening in a record 4,362 North American cinemas, about 110 more than "Spider-Man 3" and about 200 more than DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc.'s "Shrek the Third," which set an opening-weekend record last week for an animated film at $122 million.
"We are looking at a bow (debut) that's got to be between 'Shrek the Third' and 'Spider-Man 3,' and if everything works out it, could surpass it," Bock said.

"No doubt it will be the biggest Memorial Day opening weekend, eclipsing 'X-Men: Last Stand' with a four-day $122 million total."

Top U.S. online ticket sellers Fandango.com and MovieTickets.com both showed "At World's End" outpacing "Spider-Man 3" at the same point in the sales cycle.

Disney Chief Executive Robert Iger told attendees at the Society of American Business Editors and Writers this week he was anxiously awaiting the public's reaction to the new film.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/entertainmentNews/idUKN2133783920070525

 

[Visionary]

That's a lot of freakin' numbers...

 

[Pickle-El]

the girl from deadlinehollywooddaily.com thinks it's going to break 200 million by the end of Monday.....

And I hate to say it, she's right quite a bit in her predictions.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Spider-Man 3 was much better than AWE (just saw it...weakest of the POTC movies easily), so I hope it falls short.

 

[webs]

Saw AWE.. quite good, although one preferred ol' web head.. The Studio Grill was quite packed.. my suspision is that spideys record will fall..

 

[Spider-Fan]

It probably will, but I hate that this movie has to be the one to beat it. I have thought of a bunch of inconsistancies this has with DMC, and the story was weak, people changed sides every two minutes, it was really only about the last battle at the end.

Pirates 3 is disappointing, and not worthy to pass Spidey.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Here's the thing. Pirates opens on Thur which is NOT part of the weekend so that should absorb some of the weekend crowd. However...Sunday is like a Saturday so it should be an abnormally low drop off if not the same numbers as Saturday. It's a holiday weekend vs non-holiday. we'll see. Does it really matter though?

 

[Spider-Fan]

While there is no prize for BO, I'd rather see a movie I loved beat a very disappointing movie I waited a year to see.

 

[dodus]

I just saw AWE too, didn't really like it at all. All the fun was gone, not even Depp's acting could save it, there were like two or three times I lol'ed but the rest I was looking at my watch.

But I do agree, I'm not expecting Spidey's record to withstand the weekend. I don't even care about records anymore to be honest...because with great records comes ****ty ass sequels.

 

[Donald Thomas]

Here's the thing. Pirates opens on Thur which is NOT part of the weekend so that should absorb some of the weekend crowd. However...Sunday is like a Saturday so it should be an abnormally low drop off if not the same numbers as Saturday. It's a holiday weekend vs non-holiday. we'll see. Does it really matter though?

Aloha,
Don't be pessimistic. This has always been a horse race between Pirates and Spidey. When you go to Box Office Mojo, the poll predicting who would make this most this summer is 41% Spidey 3 and 40% Pirates 3.Had no idea Pirates was going to open in that many theaters, but it's good business. Now is the time for Spidey fans to start going to the movies multiple times. Spidey 3 will hit $300 million this weekend no doubt.That's a big jump ahead of the crowd.It's great that some fans have seen Spidey 3, 5 times already, but the legs that the movie needs comes in June and July. With Transformers, FF and other movies coming out this summer,he who got out of the gate first, got the lion's share of the loot(SPidey 3).Besides, Pirates, Shrek and Spidey are in three different movie genres. Within the comic book/super hero genre
Spidey rules

 

[shinlyle]

Aloha,
Don't be pessimistic. This has always been a horse race between Pirates and Spidey. When you go to Box Office Mojo, the poll predicting who would make this most this summer is 41% Spidey 3 and 40% Pirates 3.Had no idea Pirates was going to open in that many theaters, but it's good business. Now is the time for Spidey fans to start going to the movies multiple times. Spidey 3 will hit $300 million this weekend no doubt.That's a big jump ahead of the crowd.It's great that some fans have seen Spidey 3, 5 times already, but the legs that the movie needs comes in June and July. With Transformers, FF and other movies coming out this summer,he who got out of the gate first, got the lion's share of the loot(SPidey 3).Besides, Pirates, Shrek and Spidey are in three different movie genres. Within the comic book/super hero genre
Spidey rules

Agreed.

Honestly, I think it's a toss-up. Thursday showing won't count towards the 3 day total, neither will the Monday totals. I wouldn't doubt it makes 200 million over the Holiday weekend, but with a large chunk coming on Thursday and another chunk coming on Monday, if those two chunks equal more than 50 million of the 200 million, then Spidey's record stays put.

Also, I still ahve a hard time believing that, with Shrek 3 still pulling in hearty numbers, that Pirates can pull in the massive numbers that people are projecting. I'm betting we see a 3 day total for Shrek 3 for another 50 million, and Pirates pulling in about 130 million...and Spidey bringing in at least another 10-20 million. The holiday totals for all three will still be outstanding. I'd imagine Spidey ends up at 320 million by the end of the weekend.

On top of that, as I've said before, a running time of almost three hours really limits the number of people who will see it multiple times, which is where Spidey's strength lies. I've seen it 3 times, and I'll probably see it a couple more before it leaves, and alot of folk have seen it 5 or 6 times!! Also, Spidey 3 DID and DOES have the IMAX opening going to wards its favor...

Still, I probably won't go see Pirates this weekend (I've heard the words "painful", "torture", and "boring" used to describe it ), but I may go see Spidey 3 this weekend, and I WILL go see Shrek 3 this weekend.

Honestly, I'm just glad Spider-man 3 was a great movie. I predict that, even if Pirates takes the opening 3-day record (which I could give two flips about), that it won't be as good a movie, and it still probably won't catch up to Spidey's mammoth worldwide total (which I could also not give a flip about).

Spidey's got a great trilogy under his belt, and Pirates looks to be coming up short in quality with its last two outtings, so that's all I need to know.

Go, Spidey, GO!

 

[Carp Man]

Saw Pirates last night. It was like peeking into your neighbors window while they are engaged in kinky sex. Not always sure what's going on, but the laughs were a plenty, and the exciting parts, were well just really exciting. It was fun, if you didn't try to figure out the plot. Jack in Davey Jones Locker was hillarious. Dress up as a pirate, stand in the middle of the desert, and take mind-altering drugs. Hilliairous. Depp was great as always. It was fun, crazy, zany, and worth the money.

 

[Iceman]

I might consider it. I considered it when the movie was made in the first place. (Obviously that is not true I wouldn't kill my self over this.) I did however lose a lot of respect for the worlds general population when the masses made it successful.

Haha t:

I'm not too into Harry Potter but the 3rd one is pretty good.

 

[Iceman]

Saw Pirates last night. It was like peeking into your neighbors window while they are engaged in kinky sex. Not always sure what's going on, but the laughs were a plenty, and the exciting parts, were well just really exciting. It was fun, if you didn't try to figure out the plot. Jack in Davey Jones Locker was hillarious. Dress up as a pirate, stand in the middle of the desert, and take mind-altering drugs. Hilliairous. Depp was great as always. It was fun, crazy, zany, and worth the money.

I'm watching it tomorrow.

Are there any figures out for Pirates BO yet? I think it's going to do something between Shrek 3 and Spidey 3 over the 1st weekend (although it'll be slightly mixed up by coming out on a Thursday).

 

[Carp Man]

I'm watching it tomorrow.

Are there any figures out for Pirates BO yet? I think it's going to do something between Shrek 3 and Spidey 3 over the 1st weekend (although it'll be slightly mixed up by coming out on a Thursday).

Nothing yet, and Thursdays #'s won't count in the 3 or 4 day weekend's official #'s. The clock started ticking at midnight. Thursdays boxoffice is just extra, but does not count towards the weekend.

 

[SLYspyder]

Here's the thing. Pirates opens on Thur which is NOT part of the weekend so that should absorb some of the weekend crowd. However...Sunday is like a Saturday so it should be an abnormally low drop off if not the same numbers as Saturday. It's a holiday weekend vs non-holiday. we'll see. Does it really matter though?

That's a good point. I have a feeling Pirates will lag behind Spidey on Fri and Sat, but they might make up for it on Sunday. They'll take the Sunday record, but by how much will determine if the opening weekend record breaks or not. It all lies with Sunday.

 

[shinlyle]

That's a good point. I have a feeling Pirates will lag behind Spidey on Fri and Sat, but they might make up for it on Sunday. They'll take the Sunday record, but by how much will determine if the opening weekend record breaks or not. It all lies with Sunday.

Rottentomatoes posted an interesting article about it:
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/news/comments/?entryid=422676

They mention that the Thursday showing will NOT be counted into the three day, which will hurt it's attempt at the record. They're predicting it to make 162 million over 4 days, with a 183 million Thursday to Monday....that sounds pretty close to what it'll do.

 

[danoyse]

I'd laugh if Harry Potter ended up with the best boxoffice this summer.

I wonder if Harry Potter's 2nd weekend is going to take a hit because of Book 7's release??

But that movie is going to be huge. The trailer got more applause than POTC 3 did when I saw Spidey opening night. I'm a Harry fan, so I'm all for it. t:

 

[Carp Man]

http://www.showbizdata.com/news/44156/LATEST-IPIRATESI-ALREADY-SETS-A-RECORD

POTC 3 is opening on more then 11,000 screens. Spider-Man 3 opened on 10,500 screens.

 

[The Caped Knight]

Oh man this is going to be close.

 

[Carp Man]

Oh man this is going to be close.

After I saw the last showing last night at the local multiplex here at 9:30, I talked to the manager there, who bought my ticket for me so I would not miss out. t: He said they had 4 showings last night, and after every showing people were buying more tickets for next week. Just talked to him about 15 minutes ago. They are now sold out thru Thursday. 14 showings a day. The movie ended 1 AM, and the boxoffice window did not shut down till 2 AM. They have no more tickets to sell till they get next weekends tickets in on Monday. They have sold 19,600 tickets so far.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Well, I adjusted my sig accordingly for Pirates.

Spidey 3 was so much better.

 

[Visionary]

Well, I'm predicting 164 to 169M for Pirates opening 3 day weekend.

But I'm especially happy that SM3 is doing so well (especially overseas), I actually had doubts that there would even be a SM4.

 

[DarthAlani]

Jack Sparrow with consecutive wins over Superman and Spidey. The two biggest comic icons beat two years in a row that really sucks.

 

[Iceman]

Nothing yet, and Thursdays #'s won't count in the 3 or 4 day weekend's official #'s. The clock started ticking at midnight. Thursdays boxoffice is just extra, but does not count towards the weekend.

Yeah I mean that the weekend BO will be slightly ower than it would have been if the film had been released on a Friday so it makes the figures a little less directly comparable with SM3 & co.