June 01, 2007
THE SCORECARD: "Experts" predict under $50M for 'Pirates,' under $30M for 'Shrek,' and $26M for 'Knocked Up'
by Steve Mason
Each week, we round up the weekend box-office predictions of the so-called experts, including yours truly. The old show business adage "Nobody knows anything" is in full effect because, even by studying and poring over the tracking, the release plan, the screen counts and the reviews, and even after seeing the films, the moviegoing public is still too fickle and unpredictable for this to be a science rather than an art.
Hopefully, this weekly feature will keep me, and the rest of the box office “authorities,” humble and be instructive for Fantasy Moguls players.
Please note: Predictions are different from projections. Predictions are based on hunches. Projections, like the ones I will go online with tonight (Fri., June 1), are based on actual box office numbers. The numbers that I go online with tonight are the earliest Friday and weekend projections available anywhere, and they are generally quite accurate.
This week we have nine individual experts plus the Box Office Mojo Derby Averages. (Brandon Gray from BOM made no predictions this week.) According to the averages of the nine sources, Pirates 3 will dip below $50M and Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) will drift under $30M. New release Knocked Up (Universal) is pegged for $26.33M. I have the highest prediction with $35.7M. (Maybe I'm biased because I've seen it and think it's the funniest movie to come along in 2007.) The averages call for $9.11M for Mr. Brooks (MGM) and $2.19M for Gracie (Picturehouse).
Here's THE SCORECARD.
Steve Mason, FantasyMoguls.com
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) - $51M
2. Knocked Up (Universal) - $35.7M
3. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $27.5M
4. Mr. Brooks (MGM) - $7.9M
5. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $6.8M
Gitesh Pandya, Box Office Guru
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) - $46M
2. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $29M
3. Knocked Up (Universal) - $24M
4. Mr. Brooks (MGM) - $9M
5. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $8M
Lee's Movie Info
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) - $47.764M
2. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $25.27M
3. Knocked Up (Universal) - $17.087M
4. Mr. Brooks (MGM) - $8.279M
5. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $7.995M
Box Office Report
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) - $47M
2. Knocked Up (Universal) - $31M
3. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $27M
4. Mr. Brooks (MGM) - $11M
5. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $7M
Box Office Mojo Derby Averages
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) - $55.6M
2. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $29.7M
3. Knocked Up (Universal) - $26.1M
4. Mr. Brooks (MGM) - $9.2M
5. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $9.1M
World of KJ
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) - $41M
2. Knocked Up (Universal) - $26M
2. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $26M
4. Mr. Brooks (MGM) - $9.5M
5. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $7M
Reagen Sulewski, Box Office Prophets
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) - $50.7M
2. Knocked Up (Universal) - $22.4M
3. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $21.3M
4. Mr. Brooks (MGM) - $10.1M
5. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $7.5M
Edward Douglas, Coming Soon Weekend Warrior
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) - $52.3M
2. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $32.2M
3. Knocked Up (Universal) - $27.1M
4. Mr. Brooks (MGM) - $10.7M
5. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $7.5M
Joshua Rich, Entertainment Weekly
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) - $48M
2. Knocked Up (Universal) - $29M
3. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $26M
4. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $8M
Box Office Psychics
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) - $52.3M
2. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $30M
3. Knocked Up (Universal) - $25M
4. Mr. Brooks (MGM) - $9.5M
5. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $7.5M
Weekend Averages of Nine "Expert" Sources
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) - $49.16M
2. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $27.69M
3. Knocked Up (Universal) - $26.33M
4. Mr. Brooks (MGM) - $9.11M
5. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $7.63M