Official Spider-Man 3 Box Office Thread - Predictions and Forecasts

[Stupify_me]

Somehow this video reminded me of all the people at the hype when we are arguing about directors, writers, actors and which movie is better. If you watch closely the only one that seems happy is spydey, I would be too with all the money it has made.

I would say Batman to

For being Batman he seems pretty happy.

 

[nintendo nerd]

I would say Batman to

For being Batman he seems pretty happy.

Yeah, you're right.

BB was great, IMO. And I have huge expectations for the sequel.

 

[chaseter]

I would say Batman to

For being Batman he seems pretty happy.

Given Batman's general demeanor...he does seem happy and proud! Spidey is just Spidey...happy go lucky nerd superhero that everyone can relate too.

 

[Stupify_me]

Yeah, you're right.

BB was great, IMO. And I have huge expectations for the sequel.

Ha watch the guys other video's their all hilarious

 

[nintendo nerd]

Ha watch the guys other video's their all hilarious

Yeah, they're all pretty good. One of my favorites is were theres a discussion between Jor - el and Uncle Ben. Stupify is your avatar from Jim Aparo?

 

[DACrowe]

Nice video. The Hulk stuff "First rule of reboot is don't talk about reboot. But be just vague enough that people whill hopefully go along with it anyway."

Classic.

 

[Advanced Dark]

http://www.variety.com

<H1>Summer hits go for a dip

Pics rely on overseas as they fade at home

By IAN MOHR, IAN MOHR, DAVE MCNARY




Performance anxiety seems to be setting in.

The three May tentpoles -- the third installments in the "Spider-Man," "Shrek" and "Pirates of the Caribbean" franchises -- all opened stupendously, beating the record-setting numbers of their immediate predecessors in the respective series.
But with steep falloffs domestically, none of the three will match the final domestic B.O. of the second films.
Overseas, it's a different story, with the third "Spider-Man" and "Pirates" pics expected to surpass the tallies of the second movies. The reason may be the "Shrek" factor.
The DreamWorks Animation film did not open day-and-date overseas, meaning the other two pics have had room to grow; meanwhile, the domestic perf could reflect the crowded marketplace.
So it will be interesting to see what happens when "Shrek the Third" opens overseas this week in 14 territories, including Australia and South Korea.
It'll open in other key areas, such as Japan, the U.K., Germany and France on various dates later this month.
Studio execs said they refuse to paint these pics as underperformers. Sony and Marvel point out that "Spider-Man 3" is expected to top $900 million -- a feat managed by only seven other movies.
But the record-breaking bows set expectations too high for these films, and many of those who predicted the summer would be a record-breaker are now worried about the falloffs, wondering what they portend for the next three months -- especially domestically.
The numbers are indeed off-pace as North American auds seem to be running out in opening frames but abandoning pics for the next high-profile choice that comes along.
Stateside, "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" had the biggest Memorial Day weekend bow ever. But its second frame was the 19th best of all time, sliding more than 60% in ticket sales.
Pic fell behind the second entry in the series, "Dead Man's Chest," by 16% and seems unlikely to even match the B.O. of the first one in the series.
But overseas, the third Disney movie has enough gas in its tank to strike the $642 million international total racked up by "Dead Man's Chest."
"At World's End" is running ahead of "Dead Man's Chest" in virtually every overseas territory for a comparable time period. Foreign coin already represents nearly two out of every three dollars spent on the third pic, which has tallied $406.6 million internationally in a dozen days.
Third movie's second frame abroad marks only the second time that a pic has topped $100 million internationally in its soph sesh. It held far better overseas than in the U.S., with most key markets -- the U.K, Australia, Spain, Germany, France, Japan, Italy -- seeing drops of 50% or less.
And while "Spider-Man 3" is running 8% behind the second movie at home, it has hit $526.6 million overseas and $845 million worldwide -- better numbers already than its two predecessors abroad.
Jay Sands, senior VP for Sony Pictures Releasing Intl., says Spidey will stick around long enough to finish at around $900 million worldwide.
Hollywood majors' overseas business could this year top $10 billion -- a record that would represent a 16% hike over last year.
"You look at (this summer's domestic) numbers and say, 'I will never find an excuse to be unhappy with $300 million in box office," said one high-ranking studio veteran. "No one can complain with the results of any of these movies. If you're in the $300 million club, you've got something."
"Spider-Man 3" and the third "Pirates" pic have combined for close to $1 billion in international box office receipts already.
In the U.K., for example, "Spider 3" has cumed $65 million vs. $49.7 million for "Spider-Man 2"; in France, it's snared $51.8 million, $12 more than the last Spidey pic; in Mexico, it's the all-time leader with $34.2 million, $3 million ahead of "Spider-Man."
In South Korea, the "Spider-Man 3" cume of $33.8 million exceeds the combined totals of the first two films. That's also the case in Russia, where the current cume has hit $13.8 million.
"Shrek the Third" will have a tough time marching to the $441.2 million that "Shrek 2" drew domestically. After setting the record as biggest bow ever for an animated pic and a PG film, "Shrek the Third" is running a full 19% behind the ogre's second outing after three weekends in release.
Looking ahead internationally, Warner's "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" and "Shrek the Third" are both expected to combine for another $1 billion overseas, and "Evan Almighty" could break out, given the strong overseas perf of "Night at the Museum," another broad comedy with plenty of effects.
Other pics with strong foreign prospects include "Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer," "Live Free or Die Hard," "Ocean's Thirteen," "Transformers," "The Simpsons Movie" and "Ratatouille." But it remains to be seen if future summer pics can stay in it for the long haul rather than just break the bank and fade. And whether the glut of hits proves to be a double-edged sword.

</H1>

 

[Visionary]

Wow your a jerk. Just because you don't like what he said and you don't agree with it you call him a F---ing idiot. Real mature.

It's not that I didn't like what he said, it's the fact that what he said was idiotic. I call them as I see them. I find nothing disturbing about a comic book film making over 318M/525M overseas in about a freakin' month.

Anyone who finds SM3's domestic cume disturbing, has to find SM1/SM2's overseas cume EXTREMELY disturbing when comparing them to SM3.

 

[Stupify_me]

It's not that I didn't like what he said, it's the fact that what he said was idiotic. I call them as I see them. I find nothing disturbing about a comic book film making over 318M/525M overseas.

Anyone who finds SM3's domestic cume disturbing, has to find SM1/SM2's overseas cume EXTREMELY disturbing when comparing them to SM3.

 

[UltimateJustin]

The domestic take is impressive considering how many people didnt care for it, and that its the second sequel. Even if its underperforming, its doing better than I would have expected, and doing fine compared to toher major blockbusters of today.

 

[Carp Man]

I think Transformers will go over 200, maybe getting to the mid 200s, but I don't see it getting up to 300. Potter 5 has a shot at 300, but high 200s is more likely, and even if it goes over 300 it likely won't catch the 340 or so that SM 3 should end up with. Worldwide rankings are still much more open and competitive, though.

If Transformers makes over 200 million, FF 2 should make over 400 million. Just because Speilberg is attatched to the film, all of a sudden that makes it a megahit ? Michael Bay is still the director. The king of shlock. It opens by itsself opening weekend, and with them starting on Tuesday it should be a good first 11 day total. It may even make 200 it's opening 11 days. Not that Transformers is any good, but it's the only show in town till Harry Potter opens. Once Harry Potter opens, you can take the Transformers, and throw them in the junk yard. Cause it's tank time. Doesn't mean dit to me, because FF 2 will have allready made theirs by the time it opens. Sneaky little bastards. FF 2 had the July 4th slot locked in, then Transformers jumped in. Should be 1st come first served. You want the slot, get there 1st. Once you have a slot others should be hands off. Go find another slot.

 

[Stupify_me]

If Transformers makes over 200 million, FF 2 should make over 400 million. Just because Speilberg is attatched to the film, all of a sudden that makes it a megahit ? Michael Bay is still the director. The king of shlock. It opens by itsself opening weekend, and with them starting on Tuesday it should be a good first 11 day total. It may even make 200 it's opening 11 days. Not that Transformers is any good, but it's the only show in town till Harry Potter opens. Once Harry Potter opens, you can take the Transformers, and throw them in the junk yard. Cause it's tank time.

I don't think Transformers can make more than 215M and no less than 160M

but if I were asked to tighten up my numbers and predict it right now with out knowing the opening numbers or the amount of publicity beforehand I would say more along the range of 170 - 190

FF2 I say it's more along the lines of 185 -210

Both these prediction will change though as soon as I see the opening weekend numbers thats all i can do with what we know now.

SM3 looks like it will be playing directly in to my predictions just like it has all along.

 

[Carp Man]

I don't think Transformers can make more than 215M and no less than 160M

but if I were asked to tighten up my numbers and predict it right now with out knowing the opening numbers or the amount of publicity beforehand I would say more along the range of 170 - 190

FF2 I say it's more along the lines of 185 -210

Both these prediction will change though as soon as I see the opening weekend numbers thats all i can do with what we know now.

SM3 looks like it will be playing directly in to my predictions just like it has all along.

Right now I am predicting 80 opening weekend. Last time their 2nd weekend Charles and the Chocloate Factory, and Wedding Crashers opend the week after. That helped lead to its 59.4 % second weekend fall. It should have 2 or 3 solid weeks, till Transformers opens.

 

[Stupify_me]

Right now I am predicting 80 opening weekend. Last time their 2nd weekend Charles and the Chocloate Factory, and Wedding Crashers opend the week after. That helped lead to its 59.4 % second weekend fall. It should have 2 or 3 solid weeks, till Transformers opens.

Hey don't get me wrong I think FF2 looks awesome and while I am not a huge fan of the first one I thought it was entertaining at least. I think those number would be very good for this film and it would certainly let them know that a FF3 might not be a bad idea. Lets face it no matter how we felt most people really did not like the first movie that will hurt it. I think it will still bring in these good numbers though because of the heavy publicity and the fact that it does look about 10x better than the first one. Not to mention it won't have much competition directly after it.

 

[StylishHokie21]

I never mentioned that Transformers WILL beat Spidey's record..stop acting like a foolish Spiderman 3 fan....I am not even a stupendous fanatic of Transformers but i think it has a good shot at doing 300M+ domestic and it is possible..No one ever talked about breaking records and stuff like that!..The summer isn't over and therefore YOU can not be certain that ur beloved Spidey3 will be #1 domestic..The summer isn't OVER!!..get it..And by the way..did u even read my post??..cause ur response is so idiotic..Media budget?? Records?? You re seriously confused..

$300 million domestic? Hahaha! That's a good one.

 

[Lord Blackbolt]

Sorry but a guy shooting webs out of his hand is more believable than a porsche turning into a 50 foot robot somehow. I think, well I know, Transfomers has a far smaller fanbase than Spidey has...easily. Spider-Man is just everywhere and has been everywhere for a long long time and he certainly won't go away any time soon.

Actually at a techonology convention a while ago...they made a actual transformer....it didn't look like the real transformer...but it was more clunky....just saying

 

[The Guardian]

I LOVE SPIDEY, BUT I'M ALSO A HUGE TRANSFORMERS FAN, SO I'M HOPING IT DOES WELL!!! I WOULDN'T UNDER ESTIMATE IT, IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HUGE AND $300M DOMESTIC IS NOT SO FAR FETCHED, OH, AND BY THE WAY I LIKE MICHAEL BAY'S MOVIES!!! (RUNS FOR HIS LIFE FROM WANNABE SOPHISTICATED SPIDEY FANBOYS!!!)up:





















P.S. I AM A WANNABE SOPHISTICATED SPIDEY FANBOY!!!up:

 

[DACrowe]

Michael Bay=bad director.

I expect it to reach $200 million but won't have the pull of quality or brand name (as Transformers are not as big as the internet hypes) and comparing to WOTW is a very good way to look at it in terms of box office.

 

[Lord Blackbolt]

Yeah...What's so bad about Micheal Bay movies. The Rock is one of the best action movies ever.

 

[chaseter]

Actually at a techonology convention a while ago...they made a actual transformer....it didn't look like the real transformer...but it was more clunky....just saying

It was small though. But on the contrary...science has also made gloves that resemble a gecco's hands so that we can walk on walls like Spider-Man one day.

 

[The Chris]

I think Michael bay movies hit a lull when nothing's blowing up. He's not the best director dramatically. Way too sentimental for my taste.

 

[The Guardian]

Michael Bay=bad director.

THAT'S A MATTER OF OPINION AND IT'S FINE THAT YOU DON'T LIKE HIM, BUT I LIKE GIVING CREDIT TO PEOPLE FOR MAKING AN EFFORT TO CRAFT SOMETHING THAT MOST CAN'T!!! WHEN I WATCH A FILM, I SEE IT FOR WHAT IT IS, NOT WHAT I THINK IT SHOULD BE!!! IF A PERSON LEAVES THEIR OWN PRECONCEIVED NOTIONS AT THE DOOR, I THINK THEY ENJOY THE MOVIE GOING EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE!!!up:

 

[Advanced Dark]

I like Michael Bay for what he is. I would have enjoyed his take on a Hulk film because that seems to fit however I'm happier with Louis Leterrier for sure. I'd still like to see Bay take on a Marvel film say like X-Men, Avengers, etc...

 

[The Guardian]

I like Michael Bay for what he is. I would have enjoyed his take on a Hulk film because that seems to fit however I'm happier with Louis Leterrier for sure. I'd still like to see Bay take on a Marvel film say like X-Men, Avengers, etc...

I AGREE, I THINK HE'D DO A FINE JOB AND IT WOULD BE FUN!!! THAT'S WHAT I LIKE ABOUT HIS MOVIES, THEY'RE ENTERTAINING MOST OF THE TIME AND FUN TO WATCH!!! YOU'RE HARDLY EVER BORED THROUGH ONE OF HIS MOVIES, BECAUSE EVENTUALY SOMETHING BLOWS UP!!!up:

 

[Carp Man]

I like Michael Bay for what he is. I would have enjoyed his take on a Hulk film because that seems to fit however I'm happier with Louis Leterrier for sure. I'd still like to see Bay take on a Marvel film say like X-Men, Avengers, etc...

Amazing how fast they got rid of Ang Lee, Michale France, and Eric Bana. Hopefully the new crowd does better. They certinaly could not do worse. Hulk sank like a rock it's 2nd weekend. 69.7 %. The same man who wrote FF. Pattern here ?