I'm guessing the line-up for the upcoming projects looks like this:
May 6, 2022 - Black Panther 2
July 22, 2022 - Ant-Man 3
October 7th, 2022, - Blade
February 17th, 2023, - Captain Marvel 2
May 5th, 2023, - Avengers 5
July 28th, 2023, - Guardians 3
November 3rd, 2023 - Nova or some other new IP
May 23 will have been 4 years since the last Avengers. Though Avengers is their most profitable franchise, I would think expectations have to be scaled way back for A5 since it most likely wont feature any of the original 6 except maybe Hawkeye and/or Bruce. They'll want some other decent films that year to offset the risk which is why I'm thinking what I'm thinking for '23.
IMHO the November '23 slot is the wildcard right now. Don't think you see X-Men or F4 fully debut until 2024 though I believe they could be long seeded before that. Also I hate seeing Guardians pushed that far out but July 2022 seems to soon. Hope we see some of them in Thor 4.
Also A5 gives them a lot of options to introduce new concepts to the MCU. I don't think they'll go straight to another Thanos sized threat.