Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Box-Office Numbers

Worldwide gross prediction

  • $900 million to $999 million

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • $1 billion or more

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    35
  • Poll closed .
I think it all started with Captain America: TWS opening in April 2014. It was such a weird thing to me, to open a big blockbuster movie before the summer season starts. I was so wrong…

Yeah Winter Soldier doing good business in April and then Deadpool killing it in February a couple years later really made it clear to studios that the general audience would line up for superhero flicks almost anytime in the year.
 
I think Marvel can release a movie at any point and it will be a must see. January is suppose to be the "Bad movie month" but if they cared to they could release one at the end. The timing never makes sense since MCU always has a movie in Nov so they wouldn't need a January one.
Seems like Sony is testing January for their Spidey villain films. Mobius comes out January 2022 and Kraven in January 2023.
 
Without China this will probably book a small loss (rumored budget at $150m), which should be fine as it can be considered like content cost for D+. Though I suspect Disney may cap MCU film budget at c$100m until market recovers to get a decent return on investment.
 
LOL. When I was writing that I thought about squirrel girl. But even rat boy would do 50 million. Lol
There's a Marvel character named Rat Boy? :funny:
 
I'll admit, I was in that camp. Not because I thought it LOOKED bad, but when they announced the Labor Day weekend date I was thinking only with my box office mind and thought "Marvel just miiiiight be dumping this".

So I'm definitely eating crow now. I still don't think releasing tentpoles on Labor Day weekend will become a habit for studios. We have to remember that Marvel is bulletproof at the box office so it's going to attract moviegoers any day of the year. Most studios probably couldn't get away with this.

OR....

I'm entirely wrong and studios are learning a lesson that it doesn't matter where on the calendar you release a film, if audiences want to see it they'll show up. Let's look at the month of February. In recent years it's become a more viable month for blockbusters after being a dead zone (along with January) for so long. First you had FIFTY SHADES OF GREY breaking out to $85M+ opening weekend in 2015, next year DEADPOOL set another February record with $132M+, then of course in 2018 we saw BLACK PANTHER blow up with $202M! Presidents' Day weekend specifically is becoming a coveted slot (I hope DOCTOR STRANGE: IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS moves up to that spot next year, and the next ANT-MAN is already slotted there in 2023).

Heck, September itself has revealed its viability even before SHANG-CHI when Warner Bros. released IT the weekend after Labor Day weekend, which has historically been an even worse slot than Labor Day weekend itself. IT blew up for a $123M opening and ever since WB has used that post LD weekend date for their horror tentpoles (THE NUN in 2018, IT CHAPTER 2 in 2019 and THE CONJURING: THE DEVIL MADE ME DO IT was originally slated for September 11 in 2020).

I won't bore you guys but I guess the point is, studios are testing traditional box office dead zones and they're getting rewarded for it when they release the right films there.

You have to consider the reasons why a dead zone would be a dead zone in the first place, and if those reason apply to a movie in question.

The way I see it, there are basically two kinds of movies: The kind people people watch when they happen to feel like going to the movies, and the kind people will mark in their schedule and make time to see no matter what.

Marvel is very squarely in the latter category. It doesn't need to rely on people visiting the cinema on a family night out and deciding to see it on the spur of the moment, because most of those families will have already decided to see it months ago.
 
Feels so good that we are getting numbers like these rather than the ones originally predicted. Now we just need a half decent second weekend drop.
 
I think it all started with Captain America: TWS opening in April 2014. It was such a weird thing to me, to open a big blockbuster movie before the summer season starts. I was so wrong…

Marvel Studios helped break the mold. And then WB copied it to varying success.

That strategy helps stimulate business for exhibitors and gives a big movie weeks by itself to rake in as much money as it can. Why put it in a prime summer spot and have other big movies cut into its b.o. when it can do even better by itself in spring, winter or fall?
 
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Feels so good that we are getting numbers like these rather than the ones originally predicted. Now we just need a half decent second weekend drop.

I don't see it dropping off big on its second weekend. I'd say 50-55% is the ceiling -- and a Free Guy-sized hold is definitely possible.
 
Still need to confirm those final numbers but wow the news just keeps getting better and better. This is a nice lift since it was a major bummer that The Suicide Squad didn't do the business it deserved. Power of the Marvel brand even in a pandemic.
 
So much for the doom and gloom that everything would be delayed or would flop even by pandemic standards, after The Suicide Squad numbers and Clifford delay.
 
Still need to confirm those final numbers but wow the news just keeps getting better and better. This is a nice lift since it was a major bummer that The Suicide Squad didn't do the business it deserved. Power of the Marvel brand even in a pandemic.
To be fair, people probably weren’t so hyped to see a new Suicide Squad after the last one
 
Even though I did not like Shang-Chi from a script and filmmaking perspective, I am delighted this movie killed it at the box office, for being A) a film being led by a very-Asian male lead, which until now has been considered poisonous for mass appeal; B) being a D-list Marvel property, and C) being launched in a pandemic. Hopefully this movie dispels a lot of assumptions.
 
Even though I did not like Shang-Chi from a script and filmmaking perspective, I am delighted this movie killed it at the box office, for being A) a film being led by a very-Asian male lead, which until now has been considered poisonous for mass appeal; B) being a D-list Marvel property, and C) being launched in a pandemic. Hopefully this movie dispels a lot of assumptions.

That's interesting. We know that not everyone is going to like a particular movie, but this one was pretty much a hit with the vast majority of people. I won't see it until Tuesday, but could you tell us what it was you didn't like about it; as long as you can do it without spoilers.

Yesterday's D list can become tomorrow's B maybe......

I wonder how movies like this can affect comic sales.....
 

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