Now that we've seen footage from all, I'm ready to make some predictions. But first, I don't think I can group box office and quality together, because they don't really GO together for me at all, so I'm gonna separate them.
QUALITY:
Captain America: Succeed. I think the director and casting were perfectly chosen for this project. And with Joss Whedon doing the final revisions on the screenplay, I can't help but have a good feeling about it.
X-Men: First Class: Succeed. Matthew Vaughn & Jane Goldman are a great team who have yet to produce a disappointing film, imo, and the last time Bryan Singer was involved with X-men, he made the only two good films of the franchise. And the cast is great. If this team of collaborators doesn't produce a good film, I'll be shocked.
Thor: Pass. Honestly, when we first got that 5-minute sneak peek, I thought it was garbage. The cinematography and acting just completely fell flat with me. BUT, I read the screenplay, and it was surprisingly good. So even if the cinematography and acting suck, it will still have a good story and characters, so I think it will at least be decent. And it should satisfy the Marvel fans with all of its ground-laying for the
Avengers, so that's something.
Green Lantern: Fail. I had a bad feeling about this project from the minute they cast the thing. Had a sliver of hope since Martin Campbell was directing, but the trailer kind of crushed that hope. It just doesn't look like a good film at all to me.
BOX OFFICE:
Captain America: Pass. I don't see it doing huge business, but I think it can surpass its budget domestically. Current prediction - Opening Weekend: $60-75 million, Domestic Total: $150-180 million
X-Men: First Class: Pass. The lack of Wolverine, coupled with the burnout from the two previous disappointments, will probably keep this from being a big success. Current Prediction - Opening Weekend: $50-60 million, Domestic Total: $150-170 million
Thor: Fail. I just don't see who, outside of comics fans, would be the target audience for this. It doesn't have the pop culture brand name that X-Men and Captain America have, and it doesn't have the cross-genre appeal of Cap. Current Prediction - Opening Weekend: $35-45 million, Domestic Total: $100-130 million
Green Lantern: Pass/Succeed. Ryan Reynolds is a big box office draw, and he and Blake Lively will probably bring in the female audience. Plus, it has the kind of epic scope that the GA looks for in summer movies. Current Prediction - Opening Weekend: $80-90 million, Domestic Total: $180-200 million
As you can see, I don't think any of these will be HUGE hits, so I kind of agree with jmc to a point. While I don't think they'll all be mediocre, I don't think any of them will be OMG!AMAZING, and I don't expect any of them to "own" the summer at the box office (it pretty much already belongs to
Potter, Pixar and
Transformers, doesn't it?).
As always, these predictions are subject to change with each new trailer and early word-of-mouth.
