Suicide Squad box office prediction

[Juan1193]

Maybe, but without China probably not.

As for domestic, again, maybe, but probably not when adjusted for inflation.

Looking at DOM for Man of Steel its at 300 million, adjusted for inflation. I can see the Squad beating that, especially since it's a much more fun/enjoyable movie than the former two DCEU movies.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

If I were to guess based on the opening weekend, the reviews, and the drops, I think SS will end up around $280M domestic.

 

[FunkMiller]

If I were to guess based on the opening weekend, the reviews, and the drops, I think SS will end up around $280M domestic.

I'm coming in at $260 total domestic now, and $540 worldwide.

 

[Longshot777]

How come it's not opening in China???

 

[The Joker]

How come it's not opening in China???

Something to do with censorship and the Katana character I think.

 

[Legendver2]

How come it's not opening in China???

Censors most likely

 

[Juan1193]

Damn, China's absence is gonna hurt, man.

To be fair though BVS only made 95 million there. Essentially it bombed in China. Who knows how well SS would have done.

 

[FunkMiller]

Something to do with censorship and the Katana character I think.

They don't like anything occult. Ghostbusters was banned for it. Enchantress seems to have been a big problem for them.

 

[terry78]

And the thing is I am pretty sure they would've eaten this movie up. They loved Warcraft for Christ's sake.

 

[Black Narcissus]

They don't like anything occult. Ghostbusters was banned for it. Enchantress seems to have been a big problem for them.

I still dont know why Fury Road was not shown in China tho.

 

[Greens]

I still dont know why Fury Road was not shown in China tho.

They changed Immortan's aborted baby boy to a girl and China still wasn't appeased!

 

[SomeOldGuy]

And the thing is I am pretty sure they would've eaten this movie up. They loved Warcraft for Christ's sake.

I suspect you may be right, and onto the real reason China is suddenly skittish about films like SS and Ghostbusters: the Chinese box office has been down now for three straight months...

http://chinafilminsider.com/screen-china-summer-slump-sees-july-drop-18-year-earlier/

...and the Chinese government has been calling out their domestic industry for pumping out crappy movies:

http://chinafilminsider.com/chinese-media-blames-spate-poor-quality-films-flagging-box-office/

So at least some of this (if not all of it) may simply be about protecting a slumping domestic film biz.

 

[jmc]

I'm coming in at $260 total domestic now, and $540 worldwide.

that's going to be at best a break even result.

 

[FunkMiller]

that's going to be at best a break even result.

If any of the info that's leaking out at the moment is anything to go by, 540 will be a big financial failure. They could be up to 200 million under what it needs to do if budget reports are to be believed. If you accept Mojo's 175 production budget, and the same again for marketing, the film will need to do 700...bare minimum.

This is why spending that much money was just bloody idiotic. They threw a tent pole budget at a movie full of second tier characters in a cinematic universe with one previous poor movie to its name, and one average movie that wasn't supposed to be part of a shared universe in the first place.

Frankly, you can spend silly money on second tier characters when you've already established a successful universe, but not before.

 

[Pickle-El]

Everyone keeps saying the sky is falling when looking at DCU budgets and profits....yet, here we go again with some contradictory. MOS 2 in development.

MOS/BvS/SS. Badly recieved? Not making much money? WB going ahead with a majorly expensive MOS sequel in 3-4 years. (You know it will be 200m+)

This all seems so backwards...

Or do we have it all wrong? These films, despite their critical reception, are making the studio enough money to keep chugging along for 5 more years with huge budgets?

 

[Greenlite]

I don't know much about box office numbers but do you guys think it'll beat MOS in Domestic and World Wide gross? I think it can with DOM but probably not worldwide considering it's not opening in China. What do you guys think?

Probably not, it's 133.7M OW, WOM B+ cinemascore is better than BvS, which finished 1.99 multiplier, so if SS finish with 2.2 then around 290M which is still short of MOS.

If I were to guess based on the opening weekend, the reviews, and the drops, I think SS will end up around $280M domestic.

I agree.

How come it's not opening in China???

China banned Minions last year, so they really really don't likie bad guys being the protagnist. But I'd rather have shorter b.o. than having to change your story to please them i.e. Transformers got the Liberal Army to save HK, The Ancient One is white instead of Tibetan etc. Plus you really only lose 25% of b.o receipt there anyway and the bosso of their biggest online seller said some of their counterfeit have better quality than the real product so you ain't getting much profit back merchandise/dvd wise.

 

[FunkMiller]

Everyone keeps saying the sky is falling when looking at DCU budgets and profits....yet, here we go again with some contradictory. MOS 2 in development.

MOS/BvS/SS. Badly recieved? Not making much money? WB going ahead with a majorly expensive MOS sequel in 3-4 years. (You know it will be 200m+)

This all seems so backwards...

Or do we have it all wrong? These films, despite their critical reception, are making the studio enough money to keep chugging along for 5 more years with huge budgets?

Well, I'm talking about SS here, not the DCEU as a whole, given that it's a SS thread. And the MoS 2 info is not confirmed by WB. It's a rumour at the moment. The wrap's story sites a source close to the production.

When I hear official confirmation from WB, then I'll happily believe it,,because we'll get a superman film that zack Snyder is nowhere near.

EDIT - the source on mos 2 is el maybe, so it's probably ********.

 

[Greenlite]

the film will need to do 700...bare minimum.
.

It needs 600-650 according to Forbes, and 600M according to BOF, Deadline predicted 200M+ profit for BvS if it makes 925M for a 410M total budget, it made 872M so still around 200M profit, and SS has possibly 175M+25M reshoot max+marketing say 150M exactly like BvS and MOS, that's 350M, so 600-650M sounds fair to break into profit territory. Don't forget sponsorship too.

 

[Pickle-El]

If any of the info that's leaking out at the moment is anything to go by, 540 will be a big financial failure. They could be up to 200 million under what it needs to do if budget reports are to be believed. If you accept Mojo's 175 production budget, and the same again for marketing, the film will need to do 700...bare minimum.

This is why spending that much money was just bloody idiotic. They threw a tent pole budget at a movie full of second tier characters in a cinematic universe with one previous poor movie to its name, and one average movie that wasn't supposed to be part of a shared universe in the first place.

Frankly, you can spend silly money on second tier characters when you've already established a successful universe, but not before.

We make these same old arguments with every DC movie...the WB exposure is limited. They have serious tie-ins to these films before release. Strictly looking at break even on the movie release side, it will likely be close. However, there's so many ancillary streams that we can't even begin to calculate. That's why this exercise is so useless. Same as BvS. (which btw is STILL making money today)

The studio make take a little longer to recoup their investment. But, they will...and THEN some. Enough that they feel comfortable making more.

 

[Legendver2]

Well, I'm talking about SS here, not the DCEU as a whole, given that it's a SS thread. And the MoS 2 info is not confirmed by WB. It's a rumour at the moment. The wrap's story sites a source close to the production.

When I hear official confirmation from WB, then I'll happily believe it,,because we'll get a superman film that zack Snyder is nowhere near.

Unless he is

 

[FunkMiller]

We make these same old arguments with every DC movie...the WB exposure is limited. They have serious tie-ins to these films before release. Strictly looking at break even on the movie release side, it will likely be close. However, there's so many ancillary streams that we can't even begin to calculate. That's why this exercise is so useless. Same as BvS. (which btw is STILL making money today)

The studio make take a little longer to recoup their investment. But, they will...and THEN some. Enough that they feel comfortable making more.

you might well be right, but how many of these perceived underperformances from DC properties do you think it'll take before someone, somewhere decides to bring them to a halt?

 

[Pickle-El]

Unless he is

I personally enjoy Snyder...but he's toast. Looking forward to whomever replaces him.

 

[FunkMiller]

It needs 600-650 according to Forbes, and 600M according to BOF, Deadline predicted 200M+ profit for BvS if it makes 925M for a 410M total budget, it made 872M so still around 200M profit, and SS has possibly 175M+25M reshoot max+marketing say 150M exactly like BvS and MOS, that's 350M, so 600-650M sounds fair to break into profit territory. Don't forget sponsorship too.

Sorry, but Forbes and BOF aren't sources I can easily get behind, for a variety of reasons. And rule of thumb with break even is double the total budget, given that distributors pocket approximately 50% over life of the film's run. 350 x 2.

 

[Infinity9999x]

We make these same old arguments with every DC movie...the WB exposure is limited. They have serious tie-ins to these films before release. Strictly looking at break even on the movie release side, it will likely be close. However, there's so many ancillary streams that we can't even begin to calculate. That's why this exercise is so useless. Same as BvS. (which btw is STILL making money today)

The studio make take a little longer to recoup their investment. But, they will...and THEN some. Enough that they feel comfortable making more.

That argument has been made for the past two DC films, because they're the only two that have been in this unique situation.

I don't think DC/WB is as relaxed as you make them out to be. The damage control they were releasing for JL is proof of that. They're will be reactions to SS dropping hard (if it continues to do so). How big those reactions are remains to be seen.

 

[jmc]

Everyone keeps saying the sky is falling when looking at DCU budgets and profits....yet, here we go again with some contradictory. MOS 2 in development.

MOS/BvS/SS. Badly recieved? Not making much money? WB going ahead with a majorly expensive MOS sequel in 3-4 years. (You know it will be 200m+)

This all seems so backwards...

Or do we have it all wrong? These films, despite their critical reception, are making the studio enough money to keep chugging along for 5 more years with huge budgets?

I think they see there's cleary an audience that wants to love DC movies, but they're shooting themselves in the foot by delivery poor movies. In the long run they know that's going to be bad for business. At present they are moving forward because they see that potential, but they can't afford their films to have this type of reputation, because as much as there is a core fan base its the mainstream audiences they have to win over. You can't make movies for $200m dollars and get Twilight like results, you are literally leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table by doing that.