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The 2012 Florida Primary

Marx

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The Florida primary takes place on January 31st. Who will win? Who will lose? Who will drop out of the race?

(In keeping with the tradition of the 2008 election season...all debates, primaries, and caucuses will have their own threads to ensure that the political forum continues to run smoothly.)

Discuss. :yay:
 
Paul. Please go off on Romney. I mean just freaking Preach it. Oh I used a big P there. Then I want Romney with that robotic expression on his face while he's listening to Paul. That classic "Processing...forming a response in 10..9..8.."

But this won't happen.

Perry may drop out after SC.
 
Romney is way out in front right now. If he wins South Carolina big this thing may be over before we even hit Florida.
 
Romney is way out in front right now. If he wins South Carolina big this thing may be over before we even hit Florida.

Sadness, if Romney takes the cake I'm going to have to write in Ron Paul when I vote. :cmad:
 
Here we go.

This it it.

This state an the next 10 days will be incredibly epic.
 
Florida will be interesting because the state itself has three zones. South Florida is fairly Liberal, Central Florida is fairly moderate, and the rest, including Jacksonville and the pan-handle, is more conservative. Romney should do well; but, he can not lose the state. It is understood and is a given, that Gingrich and Santorum is going to split the conservative vote....Santorum will get enough to hurt Gingrich. Unless Gingrich can reproduce in Florida, as he did in South Carolina, as far as obtaining the majority of the Independent vote and going neck-to-neck with Romney for Moderates, he is going to lose this state....which would be totally expected.

And then there's my man Paul, who I believe will get about 14%. He really needs to get around 20% to stop the bleeding, and wish some way he can win, if not finish a strong second or third. Paul is slipping a little, so the key for Romney is how many of those voters who are on the fence with Paul will he and/or Gingrich will get, and how much does Santorum hurts Newt. Romney should will by at least 6% or more imho.

And like Kahran Ramsus said, one potential problem for Gingrich in Florida is that, unlike South Carolina, Florida is extremely expensive to advertise in and Romney has a big money advantage over Gingrich.

Which is another good point why Romney should win.
 
When did early voting and absentee voting start in Florida?
 
Really....wow, I was looking at msnbc, they never said, but gave the impression it started days or weeks ago. Thank for the info, an love the avatar. :up:
 
If someone other than Romney wins Florida, it's going to make the GOP race extremely interesting, since Romney was being groomed as their 2012 presidential candidate, but Gingrich and others are throwing a monkey wrench into the carefully-laid plan. If more and more conservatives are throwing their votes to non-Romney candidates, would Romney drop out?
 
Really....wow, I was looking at msnbc, they never said, but gave the impression it started days or weeks ago. Thank for the info, an love the avatar. :up:

You're welcome and thanks for the compliments!
 
If someone other than Romney wins Florida, it's going to make the GOP race extremely interesting, since Romney was being groomed as their 2012 presidential candidate, but Gingrich and others are throwing a monkey wrench into the carefully-laid plan. If more and more conservatives are throwing their votes to non-Romney candidates, would Romney drop out?

The earliest I can see Romney dropping out is after Super Tuesday if he is completely getting creamed.
 
In all honesty Florida should be the first primary state, it's the perfect combination of all types of republicans
 
In all honesty Florida should be the first primary state, it's the perfect combination of all types of republicans

I think every state should be done on the same day.
 
If Gingrich takes Florida he'll get the nomination, but he has no real shot of beating Obama. This will be just like in 2010 when the Republicans stupidly nominated candidates like Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell and turned sure victories into sure defeats. Maybe another four years of Obama will scare some common sense into the far right come 2016.
 
If Gingrich takes Florida he'll get the nomination, but he has no real shot of beating Obama. This will be just like in 2010 when the Republicans stupidly nominated candidates like Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell and turned sure victories into sure defeats. Maybe another four years of Obama will scare some common sense into the far right come 2016.

Exactly.
 
Republicans deserves Gingrich, he couldn't be a better representative of the Republicans now. That's not a compliment... in case people are wondering.
 
Gingrich can talk, but Obama will win if it's just a 2 man fight. A Obama vs Gingrich vs Johnson would be interesting.
 
Mitt Romneys campaign must be upset with themselves.

Gingrich surged in December when Romney played nice, hoping to win on his record. But, like a conman, Gingrich is able to get people to look past the obvious red flags and pledge support. Gingrich, then, stopped playing offense and attempted to play the role of frontrunner and "mr nice, presidential guy". Meanwhile, Romney hammered him in Iowa with negative, and true, ads, and Gingrich went from a 15% lead to finishing in a distant 4th place in 3 weeks. Then he got creamed in NH. Romneys campaign left him for dead, and stopped attacking. In the pause between attacks, Newt reimmerged and won SC. Now, Romney is attacking again, and Newt is once again hitting the breaks on him emotion, and containing himself. It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself.

Its like on one hand, everybody knows Romney is the smarter guy, and has the better record. But, he has no emotion. When he shows emotion, you see the support flooding to his way.

On the other hand, its like with Newt, he comes off as having all the traits people with Romney had, and when Romney tries to play frontrunner and layoff the attacks, people flock to Newt emotion.

The gop just seems to LIKE the attacker; acting "Presidential" and being above the fray has proved to be a bad thing thus far. I think if Romney continues the attack, regardless of what Newt does, Romney will win. The way support flows his way when he calls Newt speaks for itself. People want to like Romney, Newts win is their way of telling him to show more emotion.
 
It'll be great if Romney loses Florida. I think at that point his campaign will be in utter freefall. America loves rooting against Goliath.
 
Romney seems to have rebounded in Florida following his impressive showings in recent debates. A nine point lead seems to be the average. Say what you want about the guy, he is a survivor.
 

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