The 2012 South Carolina Primary

[Marx]

The South Carolina primary takes place on January 21st. Who will win? Who will lose? Who will drop out of the race? Will the winner of this primary solidify their place as the party nominee?

(In keeping with the tradition of the 2008 election season...all debates, primaries, and caucuses will have their own threads to ensure that the political forum continues to run smoothly.)

Discuss.

 

[Blitzkrieg Bop]

Santorum, Gingrich, and Perry are all coming to my town for rallies. I wanna go to one of them just to yell something negative.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

If Romney wins SC it's over.

and so far he's leading in polls.

The rest of the candidates are splitting the anti-Romney vote assuring his victory.

 

[enterthemadness]

Gingrich is the closet...he should win, he'll gloat and rub it in.

Romney vs Obama...oh gee, that sounds good(not) for our future.

 

[Marx]

I'm still trying to wrap my head around Romney leading in South Carolina.

 

[enterthemadness]

I'm still trying to wrap my head around Romney leading in South Carolina.

Well according to old CONAN skits, it's that smile of his...

 

[hippie_hunter]

I'm still trying to wrap my head around Romney leading in South Carolina.

I'm not. With the complete collapse of the anti-Romney bloc, Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich refusing to drop out, and Romney winning both Iowa and New Hampshire (the last time that happened in a genuine primary was in 1976 with Gerald Ford), Romney just has a lot going for him. Also, remember that this is a state that chose John McCain in 2008 over Mike Huckabee because South Carolina also allows Democrats and independents to vote in their primary.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I predict that Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry will finally drop out after South Carolina. If Romney goes 3-0, he will essentially be unstoppable in terms of momentum and the last of their money will be dried up in South Carolina, thus eliminating their ability to contest in Florida.

 

[Paradoxium]

Perry yes, but Gingrich seems more stubborn.

 

[8wid]

I'm surprised Santorum dropped so much in NH. Paul and Romney are going to be neck and neck until it's decided in Florida. There is one of the bigger states for the primaries and the best chance for a realistic take on how a general election would be.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Perry yes, but Gingrich seems more stubborn.

Gingrich is indeed stubborn, but reality will have to kick in just like it did for Michele Bachmann. Do you think that Michele Bachmann wanted to drop out? Absolutely not judging from her "concession" speech. But when the cold water of absolutely having no money splashed her in the face, she had no choice but to drop out. It was literally impossible for her to campaign anymore.

The same will happen to both Gingrich, Santorum, and Perry if they lose South Carolina. The money will just completely dry up and Florida is an expensive state to compete in.

 

[Venom'sDad]

Newt isn't going anywhere.....Perry on the other hand, will probably drop. As well as Huntsman if he finish with less than 5%....Santorum, maybe after Florida.

 

[obin_gam]

Betting COlbert will come in third place.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Betting COlbert will come in third place.

Colbert is not on the GOP ballot.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Reuters/Ipsos polling has Mitt Romney with a 21 point lead in South Carolina with 37%. Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are tied at 16%, Newt Gingrich is at 12%, Rick Perry is a 6%, and Jon Huntsman has 3%.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Reuters/Ipsos polling has Mitt Romney with a 21 point lead in South Carolina with 37%. Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are tied at 16%, Newt Gingrich is at 12%, Rick Perry is a 6%, and Jon Huntsman has 3%.

Wow! What happened to Gingrich? He's at 20+% in every other poll I've seen. I'm not sure I trust this poll.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Both Reuters and Ipsos are reputable organizations. You also have to take into account that Newt's been saying a bunch of stupid **** in the past couple of days along with his awful attacks on Romney and Bain coming off more as attacks on capitalism, which just doesn't fly in the GOP.

More recent polling also showed that Ron Paul is on the rise in South Carolina and evangelical groups are starting to coalesce around Santorum.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Paul & Santorum are in the same range they have been in most other recent polls. But it looks like half of Gingrich's supporters bailed on him for Romney. That's what I find so odd. I'd like to see another poll confirming this before I get excited. Had they switched to Santorum it wouldn't have been so crazy, but 37%? That's almost what Romney got in New Hampshire.

 

[Slushy]

Romney is so taking this. Gingrich's attempt to usurp him with his "OMG Mitt speaks French!" attack ad = FAIL

Romney vs Obama...oh gee, that sounds good(not) for our future.

I don't think anything can be worse than the Bush Vs. Kerry election. I didn't even bother voting on that one.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Yeah, I think it's pretty hard to top Bush vs. Kerry. Both Romney and Obama are better, more intelligent candidates than those two.

 

[enterthemadness]

Damn...well maybe...Paul can take 2nd again...

****.

 

[obin_gam]

Colbert is not on the GOP ballot.

He isnt? He announced it this thursday that he was

 

[hippie_hunter]

It's too late for him to be on the ballot and South Carolina does not accept write in bids for primaries.

 

[Venom'sDad]

Breaking News!!! Huntsman is droping out....

 

[Slushy]

Took him long enough! Although knowing my luck, Romney will probably pick him to be his running mate!