The 2012 New Hampshire Primary

[Marx]

The New Hampshire primary takes place on January 10th. Who will win? Who will lose? Who will drop out of the race?

(In keeping with the tradition of the 2008 election season...all debates, primaries, and caucuses will have their own threads to ensure that the political forum continues to run smoothly.)

Discuss.

 

[hippie_hunter]

My predictions:

- Mitt Romney wins the New Hampshire primary.

- Jon Huntsman will be the third candidate to drop out after losing the New Hampshire primary due to him coming in third behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.

- Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich will just shrug off New Hampshire in hopes to win South Carolina.

 

[enterthemadness]

Wouldn't third be good for Huntsman or just not good enough?

I honestly wouldn't mind him somehow winning NH Primary.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Wouldn't third be good for Huntsman or just not good enough?

I honestly wouldn't mind him somehow winning NH Primary.

Jon Huntsman needs to win New Hampshire. Just like how Rick Santorum put all his eggs in the Iowa basket, Huntsman did the same with New Hampshire.

 

[Marx]

It looks like Romney is still holding at 40 percent in the latest poll of likely voters ahead of next tuesday's primary.

 

[enterthemadness]

It looks like Romney is still holding at 40 percent in the latest poll of likely voters ahead of next tuesday's primary.

Paul is at either 18 or 24% depending on the poll.

Huntsman just got endorsed by the Boston Globe.

But Romney may still win, but it may not be the landslide he expects.

 

[Venom'sDad]

Romney has to win in a landslide, Santorum will slide, Paul will continue to be steady, and Gingrich, I don't know, but he is Romney chief threat. Huntsman will drop, Perry will drop after SC. I certainly hope Paul will have a strong showing; but, he is up against three fronts, and still hold steady.

NH Latest Poll Real Clear(1/4/12)

Paul has moved within 14 points to Romney 38-24, as Romney has fallen some. The average for the week, Paul has moved within 19.

 

[Excel]

Romney has to win in a landslide, Santorum will slide, Paul will continue to be steady, and Gingrich, I don't know, but he is Romney chief threat. Huntsman will drop, Perry will drop after SC. I certainly hope Paul will have a strong showing; but, he is up against three fronts, and still hold steady.

NH Latest Poll Real Clear(1/4/12)

Paul has moved within 14 points to Romney 38-24, as Romney has fallen some. The average for the week, Paul has moved within 19.

I think the last few elections, the polls always tighten up a bit before the election, but the votes are the same as expected earlier. Hilary blew a 10 point lead after Iowa to trail obama on election day in NH, only to win by 7.

Romney will win by atleast 10, if not closer to 20, %. They will call this race very early.

 

[Marx]

It's been said before but if Romney falls below 35 percent and wins New Hampshire, it makes him look weak.

 

[8wid]

So who do we think is going to get the nomination Paul or Romney? Santorum will definitely not be getting it.

 

[enterthemadness]

So who do we think is going to get the nomination Paul or Romney? Santorum will definitely not be getting it.

Isn't the nomination in August? If Paul can come in 2nd in NH and a close 2nd or win in SC and FL...I guess 50/50 Paul gets nomination.

And a few days ago someone or someone's said on here that Romney and Huntsman has the--basically same policies. I admit, I haven't done a lot of research. Mostly just on Paul, Johnson, and Huntsman. But Huntsman comes off...better in the debates. I just trust him more over Romney.

 

[hippie_hunter]

So who do we think is going to get the nomination Paul or Romney? Santorum will definitely not be getting it.

Paul will definitely not be getting the nomination either.

The nomination is currently Romney's to lose.

 

[Matt]

Isn't the nomination in August? If Paul can come in 2nd in NH and a close 2nd or win in SC and FL...I guess 50/50 Paul gets nomination.

And a few days ago someone or someone's said on here that Romney and Huntsman has the--basically same policies. I admit, I haven't done a lot of research. Mostly just on Paul, Johnson, and Huntsman. But Huntsman comes off...better in the debates. I just trust him more over Romney.

Umm, no.....Paul's chances of getting the nomination are still 100,000 to 1, regardless of NH, SC, or FL.

Paul will definitely not be getting the nomination either.

The nomination is currently Romney's to lose.

Agreed. The only shot of Romney losing at this point is if Huntsman's grassroots effort pays off and he can do in New Hampshire, what Santorum did in Iowa. Of course, the polls haven't indicated that he will. Granted, polls can be wrong, but Santorum was at least beginning to surge in Iowa by this point last week. But even if Huntsman did pull off New Hampshire (or a close second), his campaign is still going broke. It will be an uphill battle for him.

My guess, he drops out after finishing third on Tuesday and that basically seals the deal for Romney. Huntsman can take pride in knowing that he has run a successful campaign for Secretary of State.

 

[enterthemadness]

Umm, no.....Paul's chances of getting the nomination are still 100,000 to 1, regardless of NH, SC, or FL.

Oh wow...GOP must hate him. Romney won't get nomination if Paul's wins one or both of SC and FL.

I'm not voting for Romney or Obama. Romney may be the best option, but...we'll see.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Isn't the nomination in August? If Paul can come in 2nd in NH and a close 2nd or win in SC and FL...I guess 50/50 Paul gets nomination.

1. In order to have any shot at getting the nomination, one would have to win at least one state. A string of second place victories is not going to get you anything.

2. Paul getting a close second in South Carolina and Florida is even less likely than Ron Paul winning in New Hampshire.

3. It doesn't matter how well Paul does, if Mitt Romney wins all of the early states (as the polls and momentum are showing as getting likelier and likelier), it's over.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Oh wow...GOP must hate him.

Ummmmm.....yeah. Please note on why Ron Paul did so well in Iowa, Democrats and independents who changed registration to vote for him. Ron Paul does well with Democrats and independents in New Hampshire. Actual Republicans though, aren't giving him much thought.

Romney won't get nomination if Paul's wins one or both of SC and FL.

Okay, follow me very closely here. Paul winning in South Carolina or Florida is not going to happen. Not. Going. To. Happen. Also, the Romney camp has long set a path forward to where they can easily move on past a potential loss in South Carolina, it's a state that he did pretty badly in 2008 as opposed to coming close in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida while winning Michigan and Nevada.

Paul is not going to come in second or third in South Carolina, he's most likely going to end up in forth or fifth place considering how well Rick Perry does in the state.

 

[Midnyte_Sun]

After his mesmerizing policy announcement on C-Span "Lesser known New Hampshire Candidates Forum" yesterday, I think I will have to go with Vermin Supreme. I agree with his policies:

Dental Hygiene Law
Flying Monkey Public Safety Assurance Program
Time Travel Research Funding

He also said in his speech yesterday he plans on issuing ponies as a form of ID and putting more investment in the Zombie renewable energy system.

 

[enterthemadness]

Well...okay.

What is Romney's stance on the NDAA? Will Romney increase or decrease the debt?

 

[SV Fan]

What is Romney's stance on the NDAA? Will Romney increase or decrease the debt?

Romney is for the NDAA but thinks Obama was stupid for signing it most likely.

 

[enterthemadness]

Romney is for the NDAA but thinks Obama was stupid for signing it most likely.

The NDAA includes the military budget for the year, right? Is that is what he is for, not the horrible detention law in it?

 

[SV Fan]

The NDAA includes the military budget for the year, right? Is that is what he is for, not the horrible detention law in it?

I am just being sarcastic since Romney always takes both sides of the issues depending what day it is(and usually will find a way to blame Obama when he doesn't like it).

 

[hippie_hunter]

After his mesmerizing policy announcement on C-Span "Lesser known New Hampshire Candidates Forum" yesterday, I think I will have to go with Vermin Supreme. I agree with his policies:

Dental Hygiene Law
Flying Monkey Public Safety Assurance Program
Time Travel Research Funding

He also said in his speech yesterday he plans on issuing ponies as a form of ID and putting more investment in the Zombie renewable energy system.

I am intrigued by this Vermin Supreme. I really hope that he delivers on his promise of a pony for every American.

 

[Excel]

The thing in NH is EVERYONE can vote. Soo you might have democrats voting for santorum, but moderates flocking to romney.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Democrats are not going to vote for Santorum. Democrats will be voting for Romney, Huntsman, and Paul.

 

[SV Fan]

Democrats are not going to vote for Santorum. Democrats will be voting for Romney, Huntsman, and Paul.

If you are trying to f- the Republicans(ie help the Democrats by making the republican nomination last as long as possible) your best bets to vote for are Gingrich, Santorum or Paul