The 2012 Presidential Debates: 3rd debate

[SV Fan]

Romney takes Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and either New Hampshire or Iowa.

For a state that seems to be labelled conservative Iowa seems to vote Democrat alot. Of all the swing states(not including Nevada) Iowa is my pick for easiest Obama pickup

 

[Matt]

For a state that seems to be labelled conservative Iowa seems to vote Democrat alot. Of all the swing states(not including Nevada) Iowa is my pick for easiest Obama pickup

I just have a feeling that they are going to split Iowa and New Hampshire. In both states the polls are within the margin of error. I can't see either carrying both. I just don't see it happening.

 

[Excel]

Romney takes Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and either New Hampshire or Iowa.

Romney winning FLA, VA, NC, and Iowa puts him at 252. Colorados 9 do not put him over the top.

Obama takes Ohio, PA, and either Iowa or New Hampshire....and probably Wisconsin, though like I said, a lot of pundits are starting to sense that Ryan has a good ground game going there. But I digress, let's assume for the sake of the discussion that Obama takes Wisconsin.

If this happens, Obama will win regardless. Nevada puts him at 271, before giving NH or even considering Colorado.

Now, say for argument, Mitt takes Wisconsin. THEN it becomes 265-264, Obama, with Colorado deciding it.

 

[SV Fan]

I just have a feeling that they are going to split Iowa and New Hampshire. In both states the polls are within the margin of error. I can't see either carrying both. I just don't see it happening.

I only seen one poll that is pro-Romney in Iowa(and ironically it's the left leaning PPP one which has him at +1). The Rest seem to either be a tie or favor Obama

Now, say for argument, Mitt takes Wisconsin. THEN it becomes 265-264, Obama, with Colorado deciding it.

I could be wrong but I think Obama takes Wisconsin. As I said Romney basically has to win one of Wisconsin or Ohio because if Obama wins both and assuming he takes Nevada that's 271

 

[Matt]

Romney winning FLA, VA, NC, and Iowa puts him at 252. Colorados 9 do not put him over the top.



If this happens, Obama will win regardless. Nevada puts him at 271, before giving NH or even considering Colorado.

Now, say for argument, Mitt takes Wisconsin. THEN it becomes 265-264, Obama, with Colorado deciding it.

I think Nevada goes red. Just a hunch. Obama is up now, but Romney is surging and dumping a **** load of money into it.

 

[Matt]

I only seen one poll that is pro-Romney in Iowa(and ironically it's the left leaning PPP one which has him at +1). The Rest seem to either be a tie or favor Obama



I could be wrong but I think Obama takes Wisconsin. As I said Romney basically has to win one of Wisconsin or Ohio

The leads of all of the swing states mean nothing because every damn one is well within the margin of error. This election is going to come down to which candidate runs the better ground game (which is why I am betting on Obama, unless the rumors of Ryan's Wisconsin organization are true).

 

[SV Fan]

The leads of all of the swing states mean nothing because every damn one is well within the margin of error. This election is going to come down to which candidate runs the better ground game (which is why I am betting on Obama, unless the rumors of Ryan's Wisconsin organization are true).

For me if I see all polls have a common trend towards one person that to me is a good sign they will win that state. When you have polls all over the place it's a tougher read(like Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia)

Nothing is 100% but that's how I am reading the current batch of polls.

Here is how I have it for Obama(chances of winning in order)

Nevada
Iowa
Wisconsin
Ohio
New Hampshire
Colorado
Virginia
Florida

And Obama basically needs 3 of those top 4(One of Nevada/Iowa and the other 2)

 

[Excel]

Lets just go through a quick 'state of the race'.

Obama: 186 votes locked
1. California - 55 votes
2. New York -29 votes
3. Illinois - 20 votes
4. New Jersey - 14 votes
5. Washington - 12 votes
6. Mass - 11 votes
7. Maryland: 10 votes
8. Oregon: 7 votes
9. Connecticut: 7 votes
10. New Mexico: 5 votes
11. Hawaii: 4 votes
12. RI: 4 votes
13. DC: 3 votes
14. Vermont: 3 votes
15. Delaware: 3 votes

Romney: 190 votes
1. Texas: 38 votes
2. Georgia: 16 votes
3. Arizona: 11 votes
4. Indiana: 11 votes
5. Tennessee: 11 votes
6. Missouri: 10 votes
7. South Carolina: 9 votes
8. Alabama: 9 votes
9. Kentucky: 8 votes
10. Louisiana: 8 votes
11. Oklahoma: 7 votes
12. Utah: 6 votes
13. Mississippi: 6 votes
14. Arkansas: 6 votes
15. Kansas: 6 votes
16. West Virginia: 5 votes
17. Idaho: 4 votes
18. Nebraska: 4 votes
19. Wyoming: 3 votes
20. Montana: 3 votes
21. North Dakota: 3 votes
22. South Dakota: 3 votes
23. Alaska: 3 votes

Obama needs 84 votes, Romney needs 80 votes. There are many, many combinations which lead them there.

Swing states:
1. Florida: 29 votes
2. Pennsylvania: 20 votes
3. Ohio: 18 votes
4. Michigan: 16 votes
5. North Carolina: 15 votes
6. Virginia: 13 votes
7. Wisconsin: 10 votes
8. Minnesota: 10 votes
9. Colorado: 9 votes
10. Nevada: 6 votes
11. Iowa: 6 votes
12. New Hampshire: 4 votes

 

[Excel]

I think Nevada goes red. Just a hunch. Obama is up now, but Romney is surging and dumping a **** load of money into it.

Seems doubtful. Romney has not lead in a poll there in over a year. Even in the midst of his surge, Obama has lead every poll there. An advisor to the states governor recently said "the states going blue". Harry Reid supposably has a flawless ground game to match Obama's. Romney winning Nevada would mark he first time he lead any poll there since April of 2011.

Romney would be a fool for dumping money into it while his leads in Florida, Virginia, and Colorado evaporate & the gap in Ohio widens.

 

[SV Fan]

2. Pennsylvania: 20 votes
4. Michigan: 16 votes
8. Minnesota: 10 votes

Only way these 3 states go red is if something happens in the next week and Romney wins in a landslide

5. North Carolina: 15 votes

Same deal with this one with the exception of landslide Obama

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

If Obama dumped most of his money in Ohio and the rest in Florida, Romney would be forced to match his efforts or risk losing the two biggest swing states (not including PA).

 

[SV Fan]

If Obama dumped most of his money in Ohio and the rest in Florida, Romney would be forced to match his efforts or risk losing the two biggest swing states (not including PA).

Dumping money in Florida creates the issue if he loses Florida(which is likely) he then becomes easier to beat in the rest of the swing states

Personally if I am Obama I pull out some of my cash from Florida but still act like I am fighting there(else it will make you look like your defeated), but put more of my effort in Wisconsin, Virginia and Colorado.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Obama might have a better chance at Florida than Virginia or even Colorado.

and Florida is worth more points than Colorado, Virginia and Iowa combined.

 

[Marx]

I don't see Obama taking Florida. At all.

...even with the Romney/Ryan plan for medicare? It will boggle my mind if the voucher system idea doesn't turn off seniors.

 

[Excel]

...even with the Romney/Ryan plan for medicare? It will boggle my mind if the voucher system idea doesn't turn off seniors.

They need to be aware of this program, first.

 

[SV Fan]

...even with the Romney/Ryan plan for medicare? It will boggle my mind if the voucher system idea doesn't turn off seniors.

Romney/Ryan's plan for Medicare is:

Don't worry seniors we won't f*** you over, we are only going to screw over your kids.

Although they phrase it much better

 

[Fading]

They need to be aware of this program, first.

I think ppl are aware of it, but have forgotten. The Ryan plan was pretty talked about. I even heard normally non-political ppl talk about it. Yet ppl act like the VP debate was Ryan's introduction to the US. Romney was also able to turn a disastrous post DNC campaign into a very competitive one with just 1 debate win. As if nothing he had said/did prior to that happened.

Oddly enough, I think the Romney campaign might have had it right. Earlier on they were a mess, and behind in all of the polls, and swing states he needed. One of his staff was questioned if he was worried, and basically said no. That the real run for the white house doesn't start until the last few months, and apparently it's a strategy that's working for Romney.