The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

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[Tim_Riggins]

You're kind of late, OD should be between 32 & 34 million (8.7 included), and btw 90 & 93 million for the OW it seems, good result, but it will decrease from TASM with Godzilla coming up & TASM enjoying a release on a Tuesday.

WOM seems good though, B+ overall, which is not great but good, however, it scored an A- for under 25 which is good news I think, it's kind of the target audience no?

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

Cinemascore is B+, a grade lower than the first film, same as Spider-Man 3.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

I'm surprised TASM got an A-, that's not pretty common overall.

 

[JKKS085]

SOME GOOD NEWS FOLKS:

Philippines - 2 day opening all-time opening record - over and above Avengers and IM 3. Roughly $2.5M Wednesday/Thursday

India - $2M opening day - all-time record for any Hollywood film

Malaysia - Ditto as India, $1.5M OD

France - $2.7M Wednesday + $2M Thursday (30% over TASM)

Brazil - $3.7 OD (100% above TASM)


France & Brazil are big markets, this is promising. India + Malaysia + Philippines could help too if legs hold up.

The french numbers need to be put into perspective. The movie opened on wednesday with the big May 1st 4 days week end following its release. It was bound to make more than the first in this context. Iron Man did amazing in this spot back in 2008. May 1st is a really great day for movies because pretty much everything is closed for Labor Day except for restaurants and cinemas.

However the bad news is that it fell down to #2 on Friday behind a 2 week old comedy.
And that it overall sold 10% less tickets on its first day than The Amazing Spider-Man which already set an all time low for the franchise. Estimates now put the movie performing on par with The Wolverine which means it should fall anywhere between 18 and 20 millions in the end, under the first film 22 millions. But the current $/€ exchange rate will definitely help hidding lower performances in the euro zone (1.38 these days against 1.21 in july 2012).

 

[Tymminator]

The french numbers need to be put into perspective. The movie opened on wednesday with the big May 1st 4 days week end following its release. It was bound to make more than the first in this context. Iron Man did amazing in this spot back in 2008. May 1st is a really great day for movies because pretty much everything is closed for Labor Day except for restaurants and cinemas.

However the bad news is that it fell down to #2 on Friday behind a 2 week old comedy.
And that it overall sold 10% less tickets on its first day than The Amazing Spider-Man which already set an all time low for the franchise. Estimates now put the movie performing on par with The Wolverine which means it should fall anywhere between 18 and 20 millions in the end, under the first film 22 millions. But the current $/€ exchange rate will definitely help hidding lower performances in the euro zone (1.38 these days against 1.21 in july 2012).

It appears you are in France, what's the word of mouth there for this film?

 

[Suzanne78]

I'm surprised TASM got an A-, that's not pretty common overall.

Around A- and up are very common for blockbusters/superhero movies, the okay to good ones at least.

B+ is... Really not good at all. That's mediocre to bad cinemascore.

Granted, cinemascore is just a poll. But it could indicate its legs will fall apart after this week.

It needs to make bank overseas though for Sony to save face at this point. I can't believe they're trying to spin that Cap2's release date is better than the first May Friday! Total BS!!

 

[Tim_Riggins]

LATimes is indicating that B+ Cinemascore is actually good although it seems it's pretty standard overall.

For the results in France, I have no idea how he can determine the final results of the movie, it's only its opening weekend. I'm also in the country and this is a very different culture, I have no idea how you can determine WOM over there except from polls on the net or stuff like that, everytime I go see a movie, there's practically zero reaction at the end, some quiet chatter, but that's it.

Right now, every country where it increases whether the exchange rate helps it or not, I take it as good news, we need that.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Around A- and up are very common for blockbusters/superhero movies, the okay to good ones at least.

B+ is... Really not good at all. That's mediocre to bad cinemascore.

Granted, cinemascore is just a poll. But it could indicate its legs will fall apart after this week.

It needs to make bank overseas though for Sony to save face at this point. I can't believe they're trying to spin that Cap2's release date is better than the first May Friday! Total BS!!

The idea that Cap 2 had a better release date because of Spring Break is absolutely ridiculous. TASM2 has the best release date on the calender by far. There are no lengths the entertainment media won't go to prop up this film's domestic performance. And the film's overall cinema score is a B+.

Crappy box office reporting is a huge pet peeve of mine. Numbers don't lie.

 

[bapi]

B+ is nothing special for a franchise movie. Even Transformers sequels had A-.

 

[JKKS085]

It appears you are in France, what's the word of mouth there for this film?

The first showings on wednesday morning were disastrous but the movie picked up during the rest of the day (especially because 1/3 of the country is still in Spring break) and on Thursday (capitalizing on the holiday).
However, the movie apparently lost to "Mais qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au bon dieu ?" a fairly popular but 2 week old family comedy on Friday (or that's what early reports suggest) which doesn't bode well for the week end.

Usually films are far less front-loaded here than they are in the US (mostly because they open during week days) so good legs and therefore good wom is crucial if you're expecting good numbers. And honestly I don't think this is happening. I saw the movie wednesday morning in an half-packed theater with a significantly lower attendance than The Amazing Spider-Man (same theater, same showing, but for what it's worth TASM opened during summer break so that might have helped with first showings) and the reactions were not good.

Spider-Man is a pretty popular character in France, ever since the first movie actually, one of the few, if not the only comic book character able to break records here but the franchise is clearly plumetting with the last two outings. And it's even more obvious because the french BO is accounted in tickets sold and not in euros/dollars grossed.

@Tim_Riggins I can do the same thing everyone does with US numbers: projections based on early numbers. You can check my CATWS projections for the french BO I made back on march 30th. The movie is sitting right in the range I predicted.

 

[bapi]

I think 2.5 multiplier is realistic so finish a bit under 240M is realistic.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

B+ is nothing special for a franchise movie. Even Transformers sequels had A-.

For these type of films a B+ isn't special at all. Usually you get a super hyped fanboy audience voting so anything under A- is lame. And I don't even like or really trust Cinemascore but yeah the studio should probably be worried because it could very well mean something. (And it could not).

 

[Tim_Riggins]

http://www.highdefdigest.com/blog/cinemascore-worthless/

Yeah, considering how movies like Transformers gets A's and considering how low the sample rate is, it might just be better to wait for numbers rather than extrapolate.

For domestic, btw 220 & 240 seems like a good bet, overseas with the help of Asia (China mostly) & Brazil, I bet it'll do more than TASM, maybe 520-540 for a finish WW around TASM or slightly ahead.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

For these type of films a B+ isn't special at all. Usually you get a super hyped fanboy audience voting so anything under A- is lame. And I don't even like or really trust Cinemascore but yeah the studio should probably be worried because it could very well mean something. (And it could not).

I agree. The problem is that there are so many indicators that are pointing to a disappointing domestic run.

Opening day - meh

reviews - meh

cinemascore - meh

"Sony, I'm afraid I've got some bad news." - BNB

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Yeah, but then you got the Transformers movies, or stuff like 2012, F&F (the last ones), Twilight movies (very popular series of course) making a ton of dough, the fans & all will show up day one, and it's gonna be frontloaded as hell like most blockbusters.

I really don't think reviews are having that much of an impact here otherwise the Transformers movies wouldn't have done as much as they did, huge robots & action included.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think reviews do matter a lot of the time. The Spider-Man franchise isn't Transformers and Twilight.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

It's a mystery anyway, 750-800 M WW is the target, it might have made a billion a couple of years ago who knows.

 

[Eddie]

I think reviews do matter a lot of the time. The Spider-Man franchise isn't Transformers and Twilight.

I agree. If reviews didn't matter I think we'd have seen Cap make a little less and Spidey make a fair amount more.

 

[Picard Sisko]

It's a mystery anyway, 750-800 M WW is the target, it might have made a billion a couple of years ago who knows.

The issue is that the box office gross needs to earn that much just to break even.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Cap wasn't expected I think, The Avengers did what it was supposed to do and gave a huge boost to Iron Man (the most popular), Thor & Cap, it's a godsend for Marvel Studios.

@Picard: I know that, I've followed the box office for years, so I know about these things. Truth is, when you see the breakdown (like the one done by Deadline) of a lot of recent blockbusters, with marketing budgets and total costs, TASM2's total budget is not that crazy. It should break even or do a tiny profit (like MOS which barely did 40 million profit)

 

[Picard Sisko]

Oh yeah, those MCU characters are still riding off the Avengers train.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

35.5mil is the Friday number according to boxoffice.com.

 

[Picard Sisko]

35.5mil is the Friday number according to boxoffice.com.

I think it'll do okay this weekend, but next weekend? I don't know.