The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Atharun]

Well from looking at R ratecd comedies from Seth Rogen and crew and how much they make total at the B.O., I think Spidey will be No.2 this weekend behind Godzilla and Neighbors will drop to 3 or 4 (saw it, it was ok....nothing out of this world). I'm interested to see how Godzilla does because(eventhough I love big G) he has never been super popular here in the states aside from being a pop culture monster like king kong.

 

[Micromind]

Among other bad decisions, Sony gets the blame for selecting wrong release date for TASM 2, I mean going up against Godzilla and X-Men: DOFP was just stupid.

I am surprised how Marvel Studios always select great release dates, where their movies have little competition for weeks.

 

[Atharun]

Among other bad decisions, Sony gets the blame for selecting wrong release date for TASM 2, I mean going up against Godzilla and X-Men: DOFP was just stupid.

I am surprised how Marvel Studios always select great release dates, where their movies have little competition for weeks.

I have to agree on this, the release date was kind of odd. Right after WS, and just before Godzilla, DOFP, and Maleficent. Al movies that are expected to draw a lot of attention.

 

[TalismanRing]

Well from looking at R ratecd comedies from Seth Rogen and crew and how much they make total at the B.O., I think Spidey will be No.2 this weekend behind Godzilla and Neighbors will drop to 3 or 4 (saw it, it was ok....nothing out of this world). I'm interested to see how Godzilla does because(eventhough I love big G) he has never been super popular here in the states aside from being a pop culture monster like king kong.

That's not happening. It's the first big R rated comedy of the summer and they usually have good legs But it would have to have horrendous legs and drop 65% and ASM-2 under 50% in order for it to fall behind. Nothing in the weekday numbers has show it to have bad legs - the opposite of ASM2 which is down over 50% from last weeks already medicore weekday numbers.

Godzilla '98 adjusts to a $74m opening and it had poor reviews - this one has good reviews and it's obvious from the trailers and ads it's also being positioned as a Disaster movie as much as a Monster movie and with a larger scope.

 

[TalismanRing]

Among other bad decisions, Sony gets the blame for selecting wrong release date for TASM 2, I mean going up against Godzilla and X-Men: DOFP was just stupid.

I am surprised how Marvel Studios always select great release dates, where their movies have little competition for weeks.

The first week of May is an historically GREAT opening w/e if you have a strong enough movie which Sony had with previous Spider-men and Marvel had with the Iron Men and The Avengers.

Sony didn't though have a strong enough movie - which is shown when it opened to $91.5m against NO competition and then has shown weak legs against no then very different competition for the 2 weeks even before Godzilla showed up. Marvel wanted the spot for CATWS but basically ceded it to Sony. To attribute CATWS's much performance to a better release date is silly.

 

[Atharun]

That's not happening. It's the first big R rated comedy of the summer and they usually have good legs But it would have to have horrendous legs and drop 65% and ASM-2 under 50% in order for it to fall behind. Nothing in the weekday numbers has show it to have bad legs - the opposite of ASM2 which is down over 50% from last weeks already medicore weekday numbers.

I disagree on them having good legs. See below.

Pineapple Express- 101,624,843
This is the End- 126,041,322
Superbad- 169,871,719
21 Jump Street- 201,585,328

All these are well known and loved R Rated comedies of recent history and those totals are not spectacular for WW B.O. totals. Neighbors is already close to 100 mil and the movie is nowhere near as good as the ones listed above. I don't see it making another 100 mil. Sorry just being honest. I think Spidery takes No.2 this weekend.

 

[TalismanRing]

Legs refers not to the gross but the % of the opening weeked in relation to it's evential gross. Popular comedies like popular animation tend to have excellent multipliers. Those below are all 3.8-5 multipliers. In comparison a fantastic multiplier for a superhero film would be a 2.8-3.

% of US total from opening:

Pineapple Express- 26%
This is the End- 20.4%
Superbad- 27.2%
21 Jump Street - 26.2%

Neighbors with a just OK comedy multiplier would do $150m - it might do $200m. It might make more in the end than ASM2 even though it opened with $40m less. Neighbors has performed better O/S than most US comedies but that doesn't mean it's going to plummet in the US so it doesn't make more WW than what you consider better comedies.

 

[chaseter]

Among other bad decisions, Sony gets the blame for selecting wrong release date for TASM 2, I mean going up against Godzilla and X-Men: DOFP was just stupid.

I am surprised how Marvel Studios always select great release dates, where their movies have little competition for weeks.

ASM2 couldn't even beat an R rated Rogen romcom second week out. The release here makes no difference. It all falls on the substandard quality.

 

[Erzengel]

ASM could only be #1 at the box office for one week 2 years ago. Ice Age Continental Drift came in first the next week.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

ASM2 couldn't even beat an R rated Rogen romcom second week out. The release here makes no difference. It all falls on the substandard quality.

Well to be fair, Neighbors would've beat Captain America 2's second weekend also.

 

[Liam_H]

Placement doesn't really matter a lick, only so you can advertise it. This movie could've been #4 in its 2nd week while dropping only 55% would be a huge win.

Or this upcoming weekend it could drop all the way to #7 but somehow drop only 45% would be very good too.

 

[Tobias]

Placement doesn't really matter a lick, only so you can advertise it. This movie could've been #4 in its 2nd week while dropping only 55% would be a huge win.

Or this upcoming weekend it could drop all the way to #7 but somehow drop only 45% would be very good too.

So do you see Neighbors falling behind TASM2 this weekend?

Do you have a prediction for the final TASM2 WW box?

 

[Liam_H]

There is no way Neighbors is gonna fall that much, people have to hate it for the WOM to be that bad.

WW I guess around $700-725ish maybe.

 

[Tymminator]

Placement doesn't really matter a lick, only so you can advertise it. This movie could've been #4 in its 2nd week while dropping only 55% would be a huge win.

Or this upcoming weekend it could drop all the way to #7 but somehow drop only 45% would be very good too.

Exactly. Placement is nothing more than bragging rights.

You want a % drop to be as low as possible, that's where it's at.

 

[Tobias]

Neighbors is expanding theatre counts. Not by much though. Per BOM.

 

[Iceman]

Placement doesn't really matter a lick, only so you can advertise it. This movie could've been #4 in its 2nd week while dropping only 55% would be a huge win.

Or this upcoming weekend it could drop all the way to #7 but somehow drop only 45% would be very good too.

Agreed totally. Who cares if you come 2nd if you make $80m on your 2nd weekend. t:

 

[starkresilient]

THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2 took in $2.07M on Wednesday. Domestic total now stands at $153.43M. #TheAmazingSpiderMan2

 

[Tony Stark]

it's only about 1M ahead of TDW at this same point. If it has another 60% drop it could fall behind TDW and end up below 200M dom.

 

[marcvader]

it's only about 1M ahead of TDW at this same point. If it has another 60% drop it could fall behind TDW and end up below 200M dom.

wow

 

[Liam_H]

Its gonna be around $155M after Thursday. It would need to drop 64% to fall behind TDW. Don't see how that happens. Maybe later on but its not happening this weekend.

 

[Tobias]

Its gonna be around $155M after Thursday. It would need to drop 64% to fall behind TDW. Don't see how that happens. Maybe later on but its not happening this weekend.

What drop do you se this weekend? Do you see a big gain over the holiday weekend?

Are there theatre counts for TASM2 yet? I found them for Neighbors - going up 32, but not for TASM2.

 

[Liam_H]

Too lazy to try and look/punch numbers but a drop around 50% for the weekend should be the target. So I guess that means around $17.8m.

TASM2 is definitely gonna lose some screens/theaters to make room for Godzilla since they target the same demo and the former is running out of demand.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I agree, but Venom doesn't really change the terrible plot twist with Uncle Ben being killed by Sandman...

I actually liked the whole Uncle Ben/Sandman plot. Sandman (a villain that Raimi actually wanted in the film) was one of the things done right in that movie.

 

[Mr.M]

Among other bad decisions, Sony gets the blame for selecting wrong release date for TASM 2, I mean going up against Godzilla and X-Men: DOFP was just stupid.

I am surprised how Marvel Studios always select great release dates, where their movies have little competition for weeks.

Maybe January would've been better...

DOFP was supposed to take July, but Fox was so confident that they bumped it up despite nonexistent competition in July (and no they were not worried about GotG).

People just didn't want another redundant Spiderman series this early, especially a mediocre one. Sony can run but they can't hide. They need to address that issue and face the facts.

 

[Tony Stark]

Its gonna be around $155M after Thursday. It would need to drop 64% to fall behind TDW. Don't see how that happens. Maybe later on but its not happening this weekend.

It was lower than TDW on it's second weekend. The daily numbers have been back and forth. It could easily fall below TDW.