The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Avengers = hype
TDK = hype
Avatar = hype

Frozen is unexpected.

Nobody expected 600 m domestic for Avengers or 500 m for TDK. Nobody expected Avatar to be the biggest film of all time with it's December release. Hype is only part of the equation. The films need to be quality and capture the imagination for them to have crazy legs and become a phenomenon. Basically it was the convergence of multiple factors that made them the success they were, both planned and unplanned.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Yeah hype will help you get a good sized debut but you absolutely need good WOM to keep legs going.

Plenty of films have debuted big and dropped off.

 

[jmc]

Avengers = hype
TDK = hype
Avatar = hype

Frozen is unexpected.

Hype gets you a big opening weekend at best, it doesn't result in the massive box office unless the film is itself of top quality. Avatar's hype was nothing compared to TDK or even Avengers, yet it's the biggest film in history. I'd argue that each and every one of those films were equally unexpected as Frozen was to make the money it did. Not even the most die hard of fans thought TDK was going to bank a billion dollars.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

So what are the overall gross predictions now?

$615M? $620M??

 

[Tobias]

So what are the overall gross predictions now?

$615M? $620M??

No. No where near that low. I think the prediction is that it will come close to TASM WW. The question is will it make a little more or a little less than TASM?

 

[Nicko-Ray]

No. No where near that low. I think the prediction is that it will come close to TASM WW. The question is will it make a little more or a little less than TASM?

You sure? Maybe $650M tops. I just don't see it making $100M (that would be hitting $700M) more for the duration of it's run.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Yeah, the days where we thought a Spidey film could get 1 billion are long gone. Sony has killed that golden goose.

 

[TalismanRing]

You sure? Maybe $650M tops. I just don't see it making $100M (that would be hitting $700M) more for the duration of it's run.

ASM1 did $490m overseas. China will mostly offset Domestic decreases and decreases in other territories shouldn't be enough to make less than $500m O/S. $700m should happen unless Godzilla and DOFP completely destroy it's legs and $720m+ is very possible.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

You sure? Maybe $650M tops. I just don't see it making $100M (that would be hitting $700M) more for the duration of it's run.

It could make another 50 m from China alone.

 

[LizardMan07]

Godzilla and DOFP are getting rave reviews, they could completely kill spidey

 

[Nicko-Ray]

ASM1 did $490m overseas. China will mostly offset Domestic decreases and decreases in other territories shouldn't be enough to make less than $500m O/S. $700m should happen unless Godzilla and DOFP completely destroy it's legs and $720m+ is very possible.

It could make another 50 m from China alone.

Oh I had no idea that China hasn't gotten the movie yet?

Godzilla and DOFP are getting rave reviews, they could completely kill spidey

Lol but I heard Godzilla is only in the movie for 15 minutes. I think it's X-Men that's the real threat.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Oh I had no idea that China hasn't gotten the movie yet?

ASM2 did open in China (around the same time as the North American release).

But it could do 100 m there.

 

[hippie_hunter]

It has so many screens that I don't think it would make much difference since they're not exactly packed and turning away business right now. It could lose 6,000 and it would still have over 5,000. In comparison Neighbors made almost $50m on 4,500 screens. It'll also still have IMAX and won't be losing any theaters until next week. SM3 only dropped 50% against a Shrek $120m opening in it's 3rd week. If it drops more than that it's because of WOM more than competition. But I agree it could drop 50% if it goes into Thur at around $1.7m.

Actually, Godzilla will be taking the IMAX screens from Amazing Spider-Man 2.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Oh I had no idea that China hasn't gotten the movie yet?


Lol but I heard Godzilla is only in the movie for 15 minutes. I think it's X-Men that's the real threat.

Godzilla also has pretty good reviews and a good marketing campaign. Two things TASM 2 didn't have.

 

[Spider-Fan]

And it's that mentality that's going to screw them up. Avengers box office was kind of a perfect storm one-off that came about due to the stars aligning perfectly. You can't just make an Avengers, or a Dark Knight, or an Avatar, or a Frozen, and expect a billion, they just kinda happen with a combination of skill and luck. You only get a billion dollars plus if the circumstances are in your favour. Seriously, Frozen is close to topping Iron Man 3 as being the biggest film of 2013, who would have seen that?

I agree with this to a point. There was a time when Sony was doing things RIGHT with the property where 1 billion was possible. SM3 was when they got greedy and decided to shoehorn Venom into the movie, and the high drop rate on SM3's weekends is likely due to the movie not living up to the hype. If SM3 had delivered on the feverish hype it had, I bet you it would have done over a billion. It came close with the level of quality it was. Imagine how much it could have made if it was better than SM2 and crushed the 3rd movie curse?

But, those days are long gone.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I agree with this to a point. There was a time when Sony was doing things RIGHT with the property where 1 billion was possible. SM3 was when they got greedy and decided to shoehorn Venom into the movie, and the high drop rate on SM3's weekends is likely due to the movie not living up to the hype. If SM3 had delivered on the feverish hype it had, I bet you it would have done over a billion. It came close with the level of quality it was. Imagine how much it could have made if it was better than SM2 and crushed the 3rd movie curse?

But, those days are long gone.

It could have done at least TDK numbers. Its debut was near as high in the 150 million range and it actually grossed more internationally I believe but yeah bad word of mouth sort of cut its legs off in north america where TDK went the opposite end and sky-rocketed.

I blame Avi Arad for not letting Raimi do the movie he wanted, it was ridiculous how much studio involvement sony had in the film vs the freedom that Nolan for example had.

 

[rayc1971]

No. No where near that low. I think the prediction is that it will come close to TASM WW. The question is will it make a little more or a little less than TASM?

the overseas money will bring it to 700ww

 

[jmc]

I agree with this to a point. There was a time when Sony was doing things RIGHT with the property where 1 billion was possible. SM3 was when they got greedy and decided to shoehorn Venom into the movie, and the high drop rate on SM3's weekends is likely due to the movie not living up to the hype. If SM3 had delivered on the feverish hype it had, I bet you it would have done over a billion. It came close with the level of quality it was. Imagine how much it could have made if it was better than SM2 and crushed the 3rd movie curse?

But, those days are long gone.

I won't doubt it was possible, if it was in the ballpark of the first two films in quality it would have been a real possibility. Ultimately Sony have no-one to blame for themselves for the position they've put themselves and the character in.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I agree with this to a point. There was a time when Sony was doing things RIGHT with the property where 1 billion was possible. SM3 was when they got greedy and decided to shoehorn Venom into the movie, and the high drop rate on SM3's weekends is likely due to the movie not living up to the hype. If SM3 had delivered on the feverish hype it had, I bet you it would have done over a billion. It came close with the level of quality it was. Imagine how much it could have made if it was better than SM2 and crushed the 3rd movie curse?

But, those days are long gone.

I thought that Venom was Arad's fault for shoehorning in, not Sony's.

 

[jmc]

Honestly, I think all parties deserve some of the blame for SM3. At it's core I don't think SM3 was all that good a film in the first place regardless of Venom.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Honestly, I think all parties deserve some of the blame for SM3. At it's core I don't think SM3 was all that good a film in the first place regardless of Venom.

Without Venom, like what Raimi wanted, Spider-Man 3 would have been a vastly different film.

 

[lukebrodyg]

Without Venom, like what Raimi wanted, Spider-Man 3 would have been a vastly different film.

I agree, but Venom doesn't really change the terrible plot twist with Uncle Ben being killed by Sandman...

 

[Spider-Fan]

I thought that Venom was Arad's fault for shoehorning in, not Sony's.

Arad/Sony, LOL!!!!

 

[Tobias]

I wonder what kind of effect this will or will not have of Garfield/SONY negotiations for him to do TASM4? Its going to be hard for Garfield to demand a huge increase in his payday. Not that he would have but just saying.

 

[Tymminator]

I don't think it is solely RT or WOM it's more whether something feels new and fresh and has a 'hook'.

Example; MoS is 55%, even if BvS were also 55% RT do you think this movie would make less than a billion?
The movie is critic proof and will make a shed load of money because no one has seen Batman and Superman on screen together.

Cap 2, critically acclaimed is coming out same weekend and even if that movie scores in the 90's RT it is going to get CRUSHED.

People put too much stock in RT. There are many factors at work with regards to a movie's success or failure.

Can't wait for this. Made the mistake of skipping the first one in theatres. Was kicking myself when I saw the Blu ray.

I agree, but Venom doesn't really change the terrible plot twist with Uncle Ben being killed by Sandman...

That was a hideous change, and not well thought out.