The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[chaseter]

I was 17 when the first film came out. Spoiler alert, I'm almost 30.

Same..we old.

 

[Joe_Kickass]

Of course not, they were expecting 1 billion. By the way, I can't find the marketing budget for TASM, what was it? Marketing budgets are usually not given as solid numbers. About the inflation, a lot of the old movies from franchises would have done more than some of the sequels today.

Spider-Man is just not as popular as he once was, I don't see what's so hard to understand about that.

If he was in a great film I guarantee you he would be. On name alone he makes more than most CBMs, so imagine if he was in a great movie that was widely considered to be great. This movie isn't doing poorly due to lack of interest in the character, there's a lot more to it than that, hell that might not even be a thing.

 

[XSpidercideX]

Sony really screwed up with the marketing budget on this film. It didn't need it. It certainly didn't work to excite the GA. Anything they may have gained was killed by poor critic reviews. But you know Sony thought this movie would be a lot better received than it was. I'm still surprised out how mixed the reception is on it. But I was also surprised about MOS reception.

If they want to continue these films they are going to have to cut back marketing and maybe even production budget and make sure that the film has a really strong plot and characters that will woo the critics back in favor with the films.

They may be able to pull it off with the Venom and SS spinoffs. If those films are successful and they don't over do the budget on them, it could reiginite interest in Spider-man for the future of the films.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Already posted (sort of), but:

"TASM2 scored all-time record opening day in HK, Indonesia & Malaysia. Record opening day for any US film in India.
— Gitesh Pandya (@giteshpandya) May 3, 2014"

Indonesia too, Labor Day holidays, but still, I'll take it !

@Darth: If you really think the huge advent of the MCU universe & movies doesn't take away some of the spotlight from Spider-Man, I think you're really fooling yourself. Agree to disagree on this one. THERE WAS ZERO COMPETITION back when the first Spidey came out, not much more (whether it was the X-Men movies or else) when Spidey 2 or 3 did. There was no MCU yet.

Then how in the hell did Batman make a billion, without 3D, in this climate? Why are many projecting DoFP to come in higher? Are you suggesting that the character of Spider-Man has fallen off in some other way that has nothing to do with his films?

I like how you ignore the reviews in the face of the box office. There is a correlation here.

 

[Joe_Kickass]

I don't look forward to seeing Sinster Six logos and Venom's face being plastered everywhere. If they're promoting the hell out of a Spider-Man movie, then imagine what they'll do with those two lol

 

[Eddie]

Yeah, 2002, the good old days when real, "serious", big superhero movies were starting, Spidey was the king. Spidey is not the king anymore with the MCU. I've always dreamed of Spidey joining the Avengers, I wish it could happen.

@Eddie: yeah, you usually never hear about marketing budgets, and surprise, you do here. Sony should never have sold the merchandising rights, but they had to or something, no? I don't remember.

All we really know about that merchandise deal comes from a brief description from Bob Iger, iirc. It wasn't particularly clear, either. It apparently "simplified" the relationship between Marvel (Disney) and Sony. Sony kept Spider-Man's film rights and Marvel (Disney) no longer sees a cut. Marvel (Disney) got the television and merch rights back. Does that mean Sony was at risk of losing the film rights? Was there a loophole that could have been exploited that the deal took care of? We don't really know. Sony and Marvel Studios reportedly had a good working relationship as recently as a year ago, though. Recent statements from Avi Arad, however, make me wonder if Sony still feels that way. In particular, his recent comments regarding crossovers come across as extremely bitter.

 

[JOE]

This movie will still do well in the box office, relatively speaking of course. For a Spider-Man movie, it'll be considered "bad". However, as a movie in the box office it'll still have good numbers. Might be the lowest grossing Spider-Man movie, but when the average Spider-Man BO # being around $811M WW, it's a big pair of shoes to fill.

 

[STARMAN]

The first film did not create any additional momentum for the second film.

 

[XSpidercideX]

I don't look forward to seeing Sinster Six logos and Venom's face being plastered everywhere. If they're promoting the hell out of a Spider-Man movie, then imagine what they'll do with those two lol

At this point the trailers should be a logo that says "New Spider-man movie, go see it." With a big question mark and cool audio. Then do a worldwide release same day so no footage is leaked. That could be the best add compain ever. Absolute mystery as to what to expect.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

The first film did not create any additional momentum for the second film.

Possible, very possible, TASM was on a relatively small-scale spectacle wise, it felt more contained, however, with the TASM2 trailers showing some huge spectacle, something much bigger, I'd have thought it'd have blown up.

For the reviews, the truth is: do you have any proof aside from guessing that the somewhat "disappointing" results are connected to the reviews. You can't prove that, you can imagine reasons, go with your logic, but it's not something you can use as a fact.

Not being bitter, the film will do fine, not great, I've accepted that, no biggie really.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Then how in the hell did Batman make a billion, without 3D, in this climate? Why are many projecting DoFP to come in higher? Are you suggesting that the character of Spider-Man has fallen off in some other way that has nothing to do with his films?

I like how you ignore the reviews in the face of the box office. There is a correlation here.

Superhero movies as a genre are making more money than ever. The two big name exceptions are Spider-Man and Superman, which are also (not so) coincidently the two big name superhero films that have gotten the worst reviews.

It isn't a competition problem. Like I said earlier, there is a very real chance that Spider-Man will end up being outgrossed this spring alone by not one, but two other Marvel films. And TASM2 has the best release date of the three. That speaks volumes about how this film is being recieved.

It isn't a competition problem. It isn't an interest problem. It's a quality problem.

 

[Picard Sisko]

The only thing that will hurt Spider-Man are bad Spider-Man movies, not other superhero movies.

 

[Micromind]

Regardless of how much TASM 2 makes in US, it is going to massive commercial success overseas.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

I wonder if it could hit 100 M+ in China alone. It seems like its presales at the moment are slightly better than TWS were

 

[Eddie]

Studios typically get a larger piece of the domestic box office, though. International success is fantastic, but declining domestic interest isn't good for such a big budget film. There's a very real chance at this point that this film will not be a significant earner for Sony, a company that is siphoning money. At this point, I think we'll see some bigwigs in their film division go through a career transition.

 

[Mysteryman]

I don't look forward to seeing Sinster Six logos and Venom's face being plastered everywhere. If they're promoting the hell out of a Spider-Man movie, then imagine what they'll do with those two lol

It might be a good idea to put those two projects on hold until we see how ASM3 does .
At least,I hope Sony comes to that conclusion .

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The only thing that will hurt Spider-Man are bad Spider-Man movies, not other superhero movies.

1000% correct.

Regardless of how much TASM 2 makes in US, it is going to massive commercial success overseas.

The Avengers and IM3 are massive overseas success. This movie is looking to China and its 1/3 cut, to get to $500m in 2014 money.

 

[Eddie]

To add to the talks about the performance in China, keep in mind that China keeps most of that money. Success in China is great (better to make some money than no money), but Studios reportedly see only 25% of that money.

 

[Picard Sisko]

Even if Spider-Man were to ever hit a real low, it's not the end of the world. A character with such a rich comic book history can always be revived, even if he needs a 6-7 year break.

 

[Picard Sisko]

To add to the talks about the performance in China, keep in mind that China keeps most of that money. Success in China is great (better to make some money than no money), but Studios reportedly see only 25% of that money.

ONLY 25%?! Wow. Awful.

 

[Micromind]

Studios typically get a larger piece of the domestic box office, though. International success is fantastic, but declining domestic interest isn't good for such a big budget film. There's a very real chance at this point that this film will not be a significant earner for Sony, a company that is siphoning money. At this point, I think we'll see some bigwigs in their film division go through a career transition.

What you are saying is true in overseas counties where Sony has to rely on some other local film distributor to release the movie by having an agreement with them.


Sony do most of their distribution in many Asian counties as they have a presence there, in places like India, China, Philippines, Indonesia, Japan, Australia etc.

So, they will her a fair percentage of profits from there, that is they are not as dependent on US market to earn money.

Edit: 25 % figure in China is applicable only when the movie is distributed though a local Chinese company. (as far as I know.)

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Yeah, they're being ripped off. Overseas is where it's at though nowadays, movies like Ice Age or Transformers, the overseas share is insane.

 

[Eddie]

ONLY 25%?! Wow. Awful.

The info my magical powers (okay, it's Google) brought up is a bit out of date, but apparently 25% is the deal, yes. Also, it seems Hollywood has had some problems actually seeing that money. Again, the stuff I saw in a quick search was out of date, but months after Iron Man 3 came out China apparently had neglected to send that check to Hollywood.

Basically we shouldn't be jumping up and down in celebration if the movie under perfors in the US but does great in China.

EDIT: While it's true that Sony distributes in China, an article I found said that Disney does, too, and Disney apparently had problems with Iron Man 3. Take that for what you will.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

25-30%. It is why many films sell the rights to China. This movie could do $150m there, and it would add less then $50m to the studio take.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

@Eddie: Yeah but China is growing & growing, and is a huge market, if I'm not mistaken, I think there were also some deals in place with distributors to see a bigger cut of the money than 25 %, don't remember which though.

Pac Rim doing as huge as it did in China might have given it a chance at a sequel, otherwise I don't think they would have even talked about it.