The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Liam_H]

So with a Saturday estimate of about $34-35M the weekend is looking to be around $93-95M.

Depending on legs this could finish around $218-238M.

 

[Tony Stark]

Well Marvel doesn't get the right back if it tanks. So if your a Spider-Man fan there's no point in wishing for it to tank as nothing but bad things will come of that.

Marvels foot means nothing they can't put it down.

I agree about S6 with no Spidey but we don't know yet if that's the case.

I'm not even talking about the rights. I'm talking about no sinister 6 movie, no venom movie. Making those hurts the franchise.

 

[grieven]

BOX OFFICE: ‘Amazing Spider-Man 2′ Still Casting A $90M+ Web After Saturday Performance

http://www.deadline.com/2014/05/amazing-spider-man-2-box-office-opening-big-debut/

UPDATED, Saturday, 11:00 PM: As the Kentucky Derby played out today, box office resembled something similar for Spidey as I watched the numbers all day. Although the night isn’t over, it looks as though that The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is only going to be an estimated 4% to 6% Saturday from Friday (that includes the $8.7M Thursdays) so it looks like another $33.4M to $34M — so around $90M to $92M at the moment. It’s the middle of the afternoon Sunday in China now so movie going there is in full swing for Spidey. Those grosses should be particularly interesting to see in the AM.

 

[Tony Stark]

They seem to be putting a positive spin on this (no pun intended). But I said on Friday when I saw the Thursday early showing numbers that I predicted 89-90, basically going between Thor TDW and Cap TWS. This is a little higher than that, but to me under 100M is disappointing, and under TWS is disappointing.

I think we'd all agree that Spidey has been surpassed by IM on the popularity scale, at least as far as the movies go, so I wouldn't expect the 174M Iron Man 3 collected last year on this same weekend, but IM 2 made 128M without 3d back in 2010. Shouldn't a character as popular and well known as Spidey be able to make that? Heck Man of Steel made that last year, and that movie was nearly as split with the critics as this one.

I feel a pretty sharp drop next week as well with this one with a B+ cinema score rating.

 

[enterthemadness]

They seem to be putting a positive spin on this (no pun intended). But I said on Friday when I saw the Thursday early showing numbers that I predicted 89-90, basically going between Thor TDW and Cap TWS. This is a little higher than that, but to me under 100M is disappointing, and under TWS is disappointing.

I think we'd all agree that Spidey has been surpassed by IM on the popularity scale, at least as far as the movies go, so I wouldn't expect the 174M Iron Man 3 collected last year on this same weekend, but IM 2 made 128M without 3d back in 2010. Shouldn't a character as popular and well known as Spidey be able to make that? Heck Man of Steel made that last year, and that movie was nearly as split with the critics as this one.

I feel a pretty sharp drop next week as well with this one with a B+ cinema score rating.

Is it bad that this reboot trilogy/series is doing less than any of the Raimi films domestically?

 

[Tony Stark]

Is it bad that this reboot trilogy/series is doing less than any of the Raimi films domestically?

Not necessarily, but it's bad that this one probably won't make as much as TASM1 did.

 

[Spiderdevil]

Sony still has a lot of financial problems, if it were to open up to the idea of selling the rights, how much do you think Disney would be willing to cough up? 100 mil? 500 mil? in between?

If indeed Disney is willing to offer 500M, Sony should take that money and run

But I doubt Disney would do that, as I said when all is said and done, they might get him for free in 6-8 yrs time

Plus their movies are making truck loads as it is and they've got movies lined for like next 5 yrs or so, they wont be in a hurry

 

[Visualiza]

If indeed Disney is willing to offer 500M, Sony should take that money and run

But I doubt Disney would do that, as I said when all is said and done, they might get him for free in 6-8 yrs time

Plus their movies are making truck loads as it is and they've got movies lined for like next 5 yrs or so, they wont be in a hurry

I think one thing is certain at this point - they definitely won't be ponying up billions like they did for Star Wars. In a way, Sony is showing them what sort of appeal the character has in the long and short term, so if they ever make a move for him, it will probably be based around that.

I honestly don't think it will ever happen. Spider-Man will either stagnate or flourish with Sony for the foreseeable future.

 

[grieven]

If indeed Disney is willing to offer 500M, Sony should take that money and run

But I doubt Disney would do that, as I said when all is said and done, they might get him for free in 6-8 yrs time

Plus their movies are making truck loads as it is and they've got movies lined for like next 5 yrs or so, they wont be in a hurry

Puhleeze, exclusive ownership of Spidey is worth much more than $500 million to a movie studio.

 

[Spiderdevil]

They seem to be putting a positive spin on this (no pun intended). But I said on Friday when I saw the Thursday early showing numbers that I predicted 89-90, basically going between Thor TDW and Cap TWS. This is a little higher than that, but to me under 100M is disappointing, and under TWS is disappointing.

I think we'd all agree that Spidey has been surpassed by IM on the popularity scale, at least as far as the movies go, so I wouldn't expect the 174M Iron Man 3 collected last year on this same weekend, but IM 2 made 128M without 3d back in 2010. Shouldn't a character as popular and well known as Spidey be able to make that? Heck Man of Steel made that last year, and that movie was nearly as split with the critics as this one.

I feel a pretty sharp drop next week as well with this one with a B+ cinema score rating.

You make some really valid points

This practically means that Spidey isn't that popular anymore and Sony was really foolish to spend so much on it.They should have kept the budget under 220M if not 200M

 

[Visualiza]

Puhleeze, exclusive ownership of Spidey is worth much more than $500 million to a movie studio.

He's definitely worth much more, but I really don't see Disney, or anyone else, paying that much more.

 

[Visualiza]

I'm not even talking about the rights. I'm talking about no sinister 6 movie, no venom movie. Making those hurts the franchise.

You make some really valid points

This practically means that Spidey isn't that popular anymore and Sony was really foolish to spend so much on it.They should have kept the budget under 220M if not 200M

The budget probably could have been managed more efficiently had they started with a script and plan that they could follow through to the end.

Thor 2 didn't cost 255 million, and I don't see why this movie had to either. The end result certainly doesn't look like it's 85 million dollars more. As I've said before, they must have left a lot of footage on in the cutting room, or run into quite a few roadblocks during production.

 

[Spiderdevil]

Puhleeze, exclusive ownership of Spidey is worth much more than $500 million to a movie studio.

They got the whole MCU for 4 billion

IMO 500M seems about right, , especially when Sony are so desperate

 

[Raiden]

They got the whole MCU for 4 billion

IMO 500M seems about right, , especially when Sony are so desperate

Disney also gets money from Sony and Fox from the profits generated through their Marvel movies.

 

[TheVileOne]

I don't think they get an actual cut of the profits. I recall that Sony pays a flat licensing fee. Unless that's changed?

 

[Stark Bauer]

Hey guys I've been reading this thread for a while now. Estimating tomorrow's tally, TASM2 should end up with at least 90 million, but it is also likely to end up with close to 100. I wouldnt be surprised if it did beat TWS' OW. However, that is mostly bc this May release timeframe has been historically very profitable.

I know the Marvel getting Spidey back discussion is getting a bit heated. I for one would like Marvel to get back Spidey as well. I see the other studios as something like terrorists who have taken Marvel's kids hostage.

Okay extreme example. But they aren't making the movies for the fans in the same way Marvel seems to know which buttons to push and what gets fans hyped. Just look at the way Marvel's trailers are put together compared to Sony's and how much of the movie is shown. TASM2's marketing was sorta overkill and got annoying to the point where they should have called it a spoiler campaign.

I am slightly baffled at the way the international markets are perceived on this forum and elsewhere. I wonder how long the international markets will continue to support movies that are lacking in quality. I am sure they have discerning tastes too. The bubble may burst once the jig is up and the movie is seen as inferior to the original ASM as well as the Raimi ones. Their support for Spidey will be interesting to track in the weeks ahead.

 

[Visualiza]

I don't think they get an actual cut of the profits. I recall that Sony pays a flat licensing fee. Unless that's changed?

How much is that,and does that figure into the production costs for each movie? Never heard of this before, so I'm genuinely curious.

 

[TheVileOne]

I did some Google searching. And apparently this happened around 2011:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/07/09/spider-man-saves-the-day-but-not-for-sony.aspx

During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011, the Company completed a two-way transaction to simplify our relationship with Sony Pictures. In this transaction, the Company purchased Sony Pictures participation in Spider-Man merchandising, while at the same time, Sony Pictures purchased from the Company our participation in Spider-Man films. This transaction will allow the Company to control and fully benefit from all Spider-Man merchandising activity, while Sony Pictures will continue to produce and distribute Spider-Man films.

OK, now this is not my area of expertise but here is what I think this means.

Marvel/Disney gets NO cut of movie profits. What they do get however is to control EVERYTHING in terms of merchandise profits and don't have to share any of it with Sony. So it sounds like Disney/Marvel traded controlling merchandising rights of Spider-Man in exchange for all movie rights, profits, participation.

Someone else feel free to translate this as well, but that's what I kind of gleaned from it.

So if you think about it, it's a smart move by Disney. They traded VOLATILE box office rights in exchange for lucrative merchandise/toy rights. I mean think about it, we're always going to need tons of Spider-Man merch stocking the shelves for kids to gourd themselves on.

They control all the merchandise, and Sony gets to control all the movie stuff. In a way, it's almost like they've wiped their hands from it.

Marvel Studios gets stronger while it seems the Spider-Man movie franchise grows weaker.

The article described Spider-Man's box office participation as an "iron pit."

 

[grieven]

Not that his opinion is the end all be all, but there was a recent segment on AMC Movie Talk with John Campea where he said it wouldn't make sense for Sony to sell the Spider-Man property back to Marvel for $1 billion or even $2 billion. I tried searching Youtube to find it but since it was in the middle of a weekend mailbag, I can't find it.

Prime properties like Star Wars, Harry Potter, Hunger Games and Spider-Man come along once in a blue moon. Sony's not going to part ways with it for a few hundred million, not unless they're getting out of the movie business.

 

[TheVileOne]

That makes sense. I don't think there is any way Sony parts ways with this property easily.

Again it would basically take like a bomb of epic proportions.

But even Fox wouldn't let go of Fantastic Four after Silver Surfer.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Good start in China on midnight:

TASM2 made 4M yuan/$640k at midnights!
Biggest of this year.

 

[grieven]

Good start in China on midnight:

TASM2 made 4M yuan/$640k at midnights!
Biggest of this year.

Good to hear, hope the numbers stay strong.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

"Strong working Sunday opening for Spidey. If it switches release date with CA2, it most likely could do more than CA2 in total. But still, bigger OD than CA2 looks good. It can not have worse legs than Hobbit 2, so 500m yuan or $80m seems locked, $100 good chance."

From BO boards, it seems TASM2 will not benefit from any holiday days contrary to CA2 otherwise might do more than CA2.

Also from BO boards with more detail:

"TASM1 made about 5.3m OD in China.

TASM2 will double TASM1."

 

[hippie_hunter]

I feel like the sequel doubling in China was at least a given.

 

[GenUsername]

Disney also gets money from Sony and Fox from the profits generated through their Marvel movies.

Only Fox. Disney swapped the profit share with Sony for Spidey merchandise. They do still get some money fro Men in Black