The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Spider-Fan]

I guess reviews are a better barometer of quality but 'the' barometer of quality is your own opinion. If I saw a movie with a low RT score and had no intention of watching the movie then I would conclude it is a bad film but only by watching the movie myself can I make a definative call one way or the other.

Going back to Spidey's BO, ASM1 could be a reason for the (relatively) low BO just like Avengers could be a reason for the high BO for Cap2. It doesn't have to be solely about the movie in question. Well recieved movies have flopped and poorly recieved movies have been hits. It's not an exact science.

Avengers is certainly part of it, but the good legs indicates good WOM. Thor 2 got an Avengers boost also, and it didn't have the legs Cap has. That indicates people liked Cap 2 more than Thor 2, so quality is part of it.

When we will really see if quality boosts Cap is the BO for Cap 3.

 

[InJustice]

Marvel/Disney aren't going to pay a penny to get Spidey back in the Marvel stable. They earn money off Spidey toys without lifting a finger.
The only way Spidey returns to Marvel is if 5 years expire before the next Spidey movie and I don't see that happening. And you know what, I don't know if I WANT to see that happen. ASM2 is my favorite CBM all time (my opinion, leave it at that) if Spidey returns to Marvel, he is going to rot on the Marvel shelf just like Daredevil is. I want my bi yearly fix of Spidey, I'm certainly not getting my Spidey fix from USM (animated series) and the comics.

An iconic obvious A-list character is going to be shelved just like a B (or maybe C-List) hero...?

 

[spider-neil]

And there's no reason as to why Spidey shouldn't be in the billion club. I find it hilarious how Iron Man, IRON MAN, is there but not Spider-Man. It's like we're in Topsy Turvy town or something, it doesn't make any sense at all.

It's all about timing. Spider-Man movies released a decade later (for the first time) would absolutely break the billion dollar mark.

 

[spider-neil]

Avengers is certainly part of it, but the good legs indicates good WOM. Thor 2 got an Avengers boost also, and it didn't have the legs Cap has. That indicates people liked Cap 2 more than Thor 2, so quality is part of it.

When we will really see if quality boosts Cap is the BO for Cap 3.

Did Transformers 2 recieve good WOM? How about Alice in Wonderland? SM2 had brilliant WOM and made less money than the first movie.

 

[STARMAN]

Up until recently I still thought it would open to a 100 million.

 

[marvelrobbins]

Daredevil Is getting show on netfle hardly a lot of conference there.

The marvel TV divison under Jeph Loeb sucks bigtime. Agents of shield is down In the 5
million range In total viewers.

People complained about a reboot with Amazing spider-man yet they are claiming here for
another reboot which is what would happen if you get your wish on Sony giving Spider-man to Disney which I doudt very much sony will ever do.

The films MS makes are very much avengers related.GotG Is ocming out so they can build up Thanos for avengers 3. Ant-man will probally show up In Avengers 3 after solo film comes out after age of ultron. Spider-man should be part of any team. That Is way It was for many years In comics.

 

[daddydivine]

Did Transformers 2 recieve good WOM? How about Alice in Wonderland? SM2 had brilliant WOM and made less money than the first movie.

It's all up to word of mouth. With Transformers 2 the franchise was still sort of new. This is Spidey's second reboot in a short time. It is all on word of mouth if this movie makes even 700. I think after the second weekend we'll see the legs on this movie for good or ill.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Did Transformers 2 recieve good WOM? How about Alice in Wonderland? SM2 had brilliant WOM and made less money than the first movie.

Unfortunately, all of those I do think had good WOM. Particularly Alice in Wonderland. Critics and such hated it. Kids loved it. For family films, that is all they need. Transformers, I am sad to say, the GA loves. They keep coming back for me. So, the public has spoken. Despite the fact I don't like them.

WOM isn't a perfect science, but you can see it when it is happening. SM2 had a poor release date (compared to SM1 and SM3) and it still did really well. SM3 I felt had a monster bump partly due to SM2. The fact it declined as much as it did domestically shows WOM on that wasn't very good, even if international numbers were way up.

 

[JKKS085]

Did Transformers 2 recieve good WOM? How about Alice in Wonderland? SM2 had brilliant WOM and made less money than the first movie.

Poor examples. High number doesn't necessarily mean good legs with huge ow. Ridding on the godwill from a well received first film. International markets expansion. Different release date.

Won't even bother to make phrases to explain the same thing all over again.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

Up until recently I still thought it would open to a 100 million.

Boxoffice.com predicted a $112 m opening. The lowest prediction was $95 m.

 

[Tobias]

Boxoffice.com predicted a $112 m opening. The lowest prediction was $95 m.

What multiplier is expected for TASM2? With 92 million opening where is it likely to end up domestically?

 

[Visualiza]

What multiplier is expected for TASM2? With 92 million opening where is it likely to end up domestically?

Probably will hover around Cap 2's take, but then again, it's facing stiffer competition in the coming weeks. I'd say it's anyone's guess at this point.

 

[spider-neil]

Poor examples. High number doesn't necessarily mean good legs with huge ow. Ridding on the godwill from a well received first film. International markets expansion. Different release date.

Won't even bother to make phrases to explain the same thing all over again.

Basically TF2 was influenced with the previous movie. AIW was influenced by Avatar and SM2 great WOM didn't help it out perform SM1. WOM is not the be all an end all with regards to movies.

 

[JKKS085]

What multiplier is expected for TASM2? With 92 million opening where is it likely to end up domestically?

It should be more precise once actuals hit on Monday and even clearer after next week end but I would say a multiplier between 2.3 (Spider-Man 3) and 2.4 (Iron Man 3, Thor The Dark World) is likely. At this point the film could land anywhere between 210 and 220 millions.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

What multiplier is expected for TASM2? With 92 million opening where is it likely to end up domestically?

Forbes is predicting 2.5-2.8x multiplier.

Thus, barring variables, expect a final domestic gross of $230m to $258m (the original closed out with $262m).

 

[Raiden]

I guess reviews are a better barometer of quality but 'the' barometer of quality is your own opinion. If I saw a movie with a low RT score and had no intention of watching the movie then I would conclude it is a bad film but only by watching the movie myself can I make a definative call one way or the other.

Going back to Spidey's BO, ASM1 could be a reason for the (relatively) low BO just like Avengers could be a reason for the high BO for Cap2. It doesn't have to be solely about the movie in question. Well recieved movies have flopped and poorly recieved movies have been hits. It's not an exact science.

I don't buy that argument. There will always be someone who likes a bad movie over a good one, but that isn't indicative of that movie's quality at all. When it comes to quality, there must be some objective way to rank and measure its presence within the movie, and it has to be acceptable to credible individuals. For instance, no one will ever called Catwoman a good movie, whether if one uses its BO, reviews, or audience's feedbacks. Even if one person does like the movie, it will not change its quality.

 

[GenUsername]

Yep, at least 700+mil wordwide, which is enough for a sequel of course.

This earning less than the first is not a good sign at all.

The publicised spending, Sony's publicised goal of it reaching a billion, will pretty much add fuel to the calls for Sony to sell of its film division. Sony has pretty much nothing huge in the pipeline until November 2015. It's not about sequels, it's about how much profit or loss will this film division cause.

If anything, we may actually get a sequel or spin offs much faster than anticipated. I expect to hear something at Comic Con about the issue.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Basically TF2 was influenced with the previous movie. AIW was influenced by Avatar and SM2 great WOM didn't help it out perform SM1. WOM is not the be all an end all with regards to movies.

Why do you insist on bringing up Transformers? It is an outlier. Something the general audiences love how while critics hate. The general audience didn't love TASM.

Spider-Man 2 had a way worse release day then Spider-Man. Even still, it also didn't help that Spider-Man was a huge record breaker, with a fantastic release date. Spider-Man 2 was still a box office heavyweight, that would have been close to a billion dollars in 2014 money.

TASM2 sold so many fewer tickets then any of the previous films. It made less money, eve with 3D and inflation. TASM 2 is performing similar with a huge potential for worse WOM. But you just want to ignore it.

 

[spider-neil]

I don't buy that argument.

As far as the individual is concerned the universe revolves around them, so if you think something is bad/good that is ultimately all that counts. If I watch a lauded movie and don't enjoy it then as far as I'm concerned to it is not a great movie and vice versa.

If you are talking a good or bad movie in the eyes of the masses then I suppose the majority takes it, but the majority's opinion means little to me when I am sitting down to watch a movie.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It did not do better than most thought it would do, it opened around it's lowered expectations.

You went with $89m, I went with $93m. I was closer, but you win under "The Price is Right" rules.

The right movie won the OW weekend battle. I don't know if Cap 2 is going to end up higher WW or not, but I sort of hope so. I think it deserves the money more than this film does.

If TWS ends up with more, or really anywhere close, with an April release date, that just shows how poorly in comparison TASM2 has been received. I don't think it is a contest in terms of quality. TWS is a great film, and TASM2 struggles to be good imo. But BO will tell you how the public sees things.

 

[T"Challa]

Daredevil Is getting show on netfle hardly a lot of confedence there.

The marvel TV divison under Jeph Loeb sucks bigtime. Agents of shield is down In the 5
million range In total viewers.

.

How is a Netflix show not showing confidence? Its a big budget TV series shot right in New York. A lot of people have made the argument that street level heroes like Daredevil are much better served in a serial TV format than a movie anyway. And Netflix has become one of the best platforms for original programming out there with House of Cards, Orange is the New Black and Arrested Development. I'd much rather have 13 hrs of Daredevil than 2.

 

[spider-neil]

TASM2 sold so many fewer tickets then any of the previous films. It made less money, eve with 3D and inflation. TASM 2 is performing similar with a huge potential for worse WOM. But you just want to ignore it.

My main point is I think the performance and perception of the previous movie is the reason for the peformance of the OW of ASM2. WOM is what is going to effect the movies legs.

 

[Liam_H]

Why is any film's initial weekend take the lowest on Sunday?

Because its the end of the weekend. Most people are getting ready to go back to work/school etc. Generally night business slows down relative to Friday and Saturday.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

You went with $89m, I went with $93m. I was closer, but you win under "The Price is Right" rules.

I won the new Cahhh! You are closer though for now but the actuals might tell a different story.

If TWS ends up with more, or really anywhere close, with an April release date, that just shows how poorly in comparison TASM2 has been received. I don't think it is a contest in terms of quality. TWS is a great film, and TASM2 struggles to be good imo. But BO will tell you how the public sees things.

Spider-Man has lost a big chunk of the North American audience. And 61% of it's audience was male, that seems high for Spider-Man movie. Maybe I'm wrong but I remember Raimi's films bringing in more women.

 

[JKKS085]

Projections for the first 7 days domestic take put TASM 2 roughly 20% below TASM. If the trend goes on the movie should end up around 210 millions domestically (via @giteshpandya)