The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Forbes is smoking crack if they think this film has a ghost of a chance at a 2.8 multipler.

 

[Liam_H]

Well you never know, maybe Avenging Spidey was right and everybody is loving this while jaded fanboys and critics are on crack.

 

[Tymminator]

Forbes is smoking crack if they think this film has a ghost of a chance at a 2.8 multipler.

Yeah, I don't see 2.8 either.

 

[Moridin]

if Spidey returns to Marvel, he is going to rot on the Marvel shelf just like Daredevil is.

Daredevil is getting his own Netflix show, which will lead to a Defenders show...

You know where DD was actually "rotting on a shelf"? Fox. For 9 nine years they did nothing with him, then Marvel got him back a little over a year ago and immediately move to get him back on screen for next year.

Now if Marvel got Spidey back this year and immediately started making plans for a movie release in 2 or 3 years, or if they decided to give him a break for a while, I'd be perfectly fine with either one because it'd mean Sony aren't churning out sub-par Spidey films (after already striking out 3 times in a row) and tainting the name further.

How is Marvel letting DD rot on the shelf? It's going to be a TV show next year.

While I actually would just rather see Marvel work on new properties, so I'm not keen on them getting Spidey back, if the next few weeks see a big decline in ASM2 box office, Sony would absolutely need to rethink their strategy as to the future of the franchise.

Is $700mil. locked now? Also, when is Godzilla getting released OS?

Godzilla starts it's roll out May 14-16, pretty much everywhere.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0831387/releaseinfo?ref_=tt_ov_inf

Daredevil Is getting show on netfle hardly a lot of conference there.

How on earth do you figure that? Netflix is doing great with House of Cards & Orange is the New Black, bringing back Arrested Development, among others.

The Daredevil show will lead into a Defenders show with Iron Fist, Luke Cage & Jessica Jones. How is that not confidence?

Oh wait, if I recall correctly you said the same thing about Marvel releasing Winter Soldier in April.

The marvel TV divison under Jeph Loeb sucks bigtime. Agents of shield is down In the 5
million range In total viewers.

AoS has improved immensely over the past month or two.

And Drew Goddard will be the showrunner/writer/director/executive producer for Daredevil.

People complained about a reboot with Amazing spider-man yet they are claiming here for
another reboot which is what would happen if you get your wish on Sony giving Spider-man to Disney which I doudt very much sony will ever do.

Speaking for myself, I complained that TASM was a whole load of "been there, done that, and done it better". You can reboot Spidey without rehashing the origin [again]. See the Spectacular Spidey cartoon.

 

[Tobias]

Forbes is smoking crack if they think this film has a ghost of a chance at a 2.8 multipler.

I think that is high. Did Hughes post that or Mendelson?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Forbes is smoking crack if they think this film has a ghost of a chance at a 2.8 multipler.

I won the new Cahhh! You are closer though for now but the actuals might tell a different story.

Spider-Man has lost a big chunk of the North American audience. And 61% of it's audience was male, that seems high for Spider-Man movie. Maybe I'm wrong but I remember Raimi's films bringing in more women.

Which is insane, considering the romance has been the focal point of these two films. They have lost people with Garfield and Stone. Maybe people, most specifically the ladies, don't like Garfield. Last night's SNL he was on, tied for the lowest ratings of the season as well.

And we will see come Monday who is right.

 

[Liam_H]

Mendelson is generally pretty good with his box office prognostication but he's choosing the wrong movies for comparison.

Things like Cap2, Thor 2, The Wolverine, IM3 are better to use because they are sequels and more recent.

 

[mclay18]

Forbes is smoking crack if they think this film has a ghost of a chance at a 2.8 multipler.

It will be lucky if it gets to 2.5X IMO. I expect a big drop next weekend for TASM2, like 60% or more.

 

[Tobias]

Which is insane, considering the romance has been the focal point of these two films. They have lost people with Garfield and Stone. Maybe people, most specifically the ladies, don't like Garfield. Last night's SNL he was on, tied for the lowest ratings of the season as well.

And we will see come Monday who is right.

Evans and Hensley (sp) are more heart throb types than Garfield so I am guessing so that may be a factor.

 

[Tobias]

Mendelson is generally pretty good with his box office prognostication but he's choosing the wrong movies for comparison.

Things like Cap2, Thor 2, The Wolverine, IM3 are better to use because they are sequels and more recent.

Your guess as to the best modifier to use?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

A 2.8 multiplier would give it better legs than Winter Soldier which had very good word of mouth and no serious comp from movies heading for the same audience. I think TASM 2 will have between a 2.2 and 2.45 multiplier. 61% of it's audience being male is bad because Neighbors is coming out. If that film succeeds it's game over.

 

[Nemeres]

I can barely believe that I live in an era where Superman and Captain America outgrossed Spider-Man in their OW. The 2000's are truly over.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Well you never know, maybe Avenging Spidey was right and everybody is loving this while jaded fanboys and critics are on crack.

You're wrong! This will make mega millions on Sunday and reach 140 mil! And more critics will come and it will RT at 90%!!! You'll all see!!!!

 

[Pickleweasel]

Would it have been difficult to push the release date up a week say like 2 months ago?

Once Godzilla comes out and then Xmen right after it's drop is going to be pretty big.

Could have had 3 weeks to itself almost if it had moved up.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

You're wrong! This will make mega millions on Sunday and reach 140 mil! And more critics will come and it will RT at 90%!!! You'll all see!!!!

The power of Christ compells you!

Is there an exorcist in the house?

 

[Liam_H]

Your guess as to the best modifier to use?

Anything around 2.4 sounds about right.

 

[Spider-Ock]

Including the overseas gross, it's made 369 mil so far. Any good?

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Tracking for domestic was always btw 90 & 100 million, Box Office.com had it at 112 maybe, but they are usually pretty far off.

Otherwise, pretty huge in China, overseas is gonna be the saving grace:

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya 1h
Intl will be crucial for #TASM2 & Asian openings were very good. Huge $116M intl wknd, $277M cume, $369M global.

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya 1h
$10.4M (10.9 M actually) opening day today for #TASM2 in China on a workday. Biggest opening wknd ever for US film in India w/ $6.5M.

100 M for TASM2 in China is possible, Cap had some holiday days, TASM2 has a ton of workdays, that makes its OD performance pretty big.

 

[Raiden]

I can barely believe that I live in an era where Superman and Captain America outgrossed Spider-Man in their OW. The 2000's are truly over.

TWS will probably beat MOS's gross in the end as well.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Is that Forbes guy being paid by Sony to spin this like mad? The reach is unbelievable.

- I originally though this would hit at least $120 million OW.
- Based on how it all fell apart at the seams, I lowered it to $105-110 million.
- Based on projections I thought for sure it would surprise us and at least hit $98-100 million... topping CA:TWS.

But, nope, $92 million it is.

I'm sorry, but this (considering ALL the factors) just screams disappointment... and Forbes can say what they want.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's already beat MOS gross worldwide but domestically Winter Soldier has zero chance of beating MOS.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

You're wrong! This will make mega millions on Sunday and reach 140 mil! And more critics will come and it will RT at 90%!!! You'll all see!!!!

The basement is $950m.

A 2.8 multiplier would give it better legs than Winter Soldier which had very good word of mouth and no serious comp from movies heading for the same audience. I think TASM 2 will have between a 2.2 and 2.45 multiplier. 61% of it's audience being male is bad because Neighbors is coming out. If that film succeeds it's game over.

Even if the WOM was good, its legs were going to get cut. Neighbors, Godzilla, DoFP and Maleficent all in a row. The film can't support bad reception. Right now it is looking like $230m would be really good.

You're wrong! This will make mega millions on Sunday and reach 140 mil! And more critics will come and it will RT at 90%!!! You'll all see!!!!

The basement is $950m.

 

[TheVileOne]

All this fun we are having aside, these numbers aren't terrible for Spider-Man. They aren't record breaking numbers that the franchise used to draw, but not worst ever. But are they disappointing compared to what the franchise used to do? Yes, I'd agree.

Also it's already made like over $300 million worldwide.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Tracking for domestic was always btw 90 & 100 million, Box Office.com had it at 112 maybe, but they are usually pretty far off.

Otherwise, pretty huge in China, overseas is gonna be the saving grace:

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya 1h
Intl will be crucial for #TASM2 & Asian openings were very good. Huge $116M intl wknd, $277M cume, $369M global.

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya 1h
$10.4M (10.9 M actually) opening day today for #TASM2 in China on a workday. Biggest opening wknd ever for US film in India w/ $6.5M.

100 M for TASM2 in China is possible, Cap had some holiday days, TASM2 has a ton of workdays, that makes its OD performance pretty big.

TASM 2 opened on a holiday in China, and opened on various "holidays" across the world. There was a bank holiday in England. What are you talking about?

 

[JKKS085]

TWS will probably beat MOS's gross in the end as well.

CATWS already beat MoS.