The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]478461[/split]

 

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]478085[/split]

 

[Atharun]

Oh forgot about that, that's the comedy with Seth Rogen. I see that doing somwhere between 30-60 mil. A wide range yes but those comedies by that group of actors (I.E. Rogen and friends) have had opening all over the place. I still think TASM2 takes 1, Neighbors takes 2, maybe Rio2 Takes 3. Million Dollar Arm is a wild card, no clue if it will earn or sink.

 

[GenUsername]

The wrap are predicting a huge drop.

http://www.thewrap.com/neighbors-poised-knock-amazing-spider-man-2-box-office/

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

1. The Amazing Spider-Man 2: 36.5mil-60%

2. Neighbors: 36mil

Right now I'm giving Spidey the very, very slight edge but depending if it does decently Tuesday and Wednesday I might raise my prediction a million or two or lower it.

 

[georgec]

77.8% drop from Sunday to Monday ($5.2 million).

This may struggle to hit $200 million domestically.

 

[kbrooksgohan]

77.8% drop from Sunday to Monday ($5.2 million).

There really isn't a 77.8 % drop since it's a school day. As for the drop most superhero movies are front loaded.

Cap 2 fell 56% and it had no competition. Spidey has competition so....

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

There really isn't a 77.8 % drop since it's a school day. As for the drop most superhero movies are front loaded.

Cap 2 fell 56% and it had no competition. Spidey has competition so....

What competition? No one opened against ASM2.

 

[georgec]

?

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Sunday
$23,280,183
-29.8%[COLOR=#00000] / $5,384[/COLOR]
$91,608,337 / 3

Monday
$5,168,281
-77.8%[COLOR=#00000] / $1,195[/COLOR]
$96,776,618 / 4

That's a 77.8% drop. TASM2 doesn't really have any major competition right now. TWS has been out for 4 weeks. Not sure how any of that changes the math, though. I'm not posting this to be a hater. Not sure how to address the "school day" comment - this isn't the first time movies have played and been tracked during a school day.

(in response to kbrooksgohan, not Angryfantasyfan)

 

[kbrooksgohan]

What competition? No one opened against ASM2.

For the second week. Not on day 1.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Cap 2 had Rio 2 which opened with 39mil, I wouldn't call that no competition. Rio 2 nearly beat Cap 2 as a matter of fact, Rio 2 beat it on Friday.

 

[kbrooksgohan]

?

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Sunday
$23,280,183
-29.8%[COLOR=#00000] / $5,384[/COLOR]
$91,608,337 / 3

Monday
$5,168,281
-77.8%[COLOR=#00000] / $1,195[/COLOR]
$96,776,618 / 4

That's a 77.8% drop. TASM2 doesn't really have any major competition right now. TWS has been out for 4 weeks. Not sure how any of that changes the math, though. I'm not posting this to be a hater.

(in response to kbrooksgohan, not Angryfantasyfan)

I know the percentage but most people don't count Monday. It also matters what season it is and if children are in school. Most of the Spiderman movies come out in the summer time.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Actually Spider-Man and Spider-Man 3 came out in May.

 

[georgec]

I know the percentage but most people don't count Monday. It also matters what season it is and if children are in school. Most of the Spiderman movies come out in the summer time.

The Monday receipts count for the film's box office haul and analysis, as they would for any film. Nobody's talking about when other SM movies came out or whether kids are in school. This is about how TASM2 is performing at the box office.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Actually Spider-Man and Spider-Man 3 came out in May.

For reference, their first Mondays:

Spider-Man - May 6, 2002 - $11,034,785
Spider-Man 3 - May 7, 2007 - $10,285,268
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - May 5, 2014 - $5,168,281

All figures according to BoxOfficeMojo

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Just looking at the charts, Spider-Man 1 did better on its SECOND Monday than TASM2 did on its first.

 

[kbrooksgohan]

Just looking at the charts, Spider-Man 1 did better on its SECOND Monday than TASM2 did on its first.

There's been a decline on all of them lol.

 

[Atharun]

Aren't Mondays (non holiday/school's out/work's out) usually the weakest day of the week for movies in general?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Here's how I see the weekdays playing out.

5.2mil, 6.2mil, 4.4,mil 4.2mil. Give or take a few hundred thousand for any of the days we don't have.

No Mondays are not usually the weakest weekday.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Aren't Mondays (non holiday/school's out/work's out) usually the weakest day of the week for movies in general?

Wednesdays and Thursdays are usually the weakest.

 

[terry78]

When summer hits that will be when weekdays matter. Bras outta school.

 

[Liam_H]

Thursdays are generally the weakest weekdays.

 

[Richard Grayson]

I think ASM will barely make over 700 million. Foreign markets alone should probably make 500 million or so. But it seems like Spidey is losing his luster in the States. Or maybe it's just that there hasn't been a great Spider-Man movie since 2004. Whatever the reason, it'll be a fight to hit 200 million

 

[socool]

Oh, man...look like this film is gonna struggle to break even.

Good.

Hopefully that ends Sony's (mostly Avard's) reign on this character.

 

[Iceman]

The split is going to skew more overseas with each film as I can't see this rebooted series winning back fatigued US viewers anytime soon while overseas it will be resilient.