The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Mr. Dent]

Franchise fatigue is definitely a real thing.

Fast and Furious went through a major re-invention which made it one of greatest come back stories in Hollywood history.

But most franchise hit new lows with the fourth and fifth movie.

Overseas saved the latest Ice Age and POTC but it's clear the studios are careful when planning 4th and 5th sequels as domestic grosses drop.

Yeah, but Sony can't hold off on making Spidey films long enough to stave off fatiue. Considering they've never went more than 3-4 years without putting out a Spidey movie with the exception of TASM where they had to sale Marvel the animation rights, I think it's an indication that Sony has to have Spidey films out nearly every 3 years to keep the license. That's just not going to sustain itself at this rate.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Cap 2 and ASM2 is like the tale of two franchises.

Cap 1 and ASM1 were both decent but their sequels performance are night and day..Spidey dropped and Cap reached new heights.

The only major reason for this was buzz. Buzz made all the difference.

 

[spiderman2]

Yeah, if TASM2 was a 95% movie on RT you could bet anything you own that it would have absolutely killed it in the BO, that's just how it works, sans tranformers.

Hit the nail on the head because there are a lot of people in the GA that wont go see a movie if it gets bad reviews. Heck I even bet with dark knight that there where so people that went and saw it that are not even really batman fans just because they heard it was a good movie and because of the joker's acting. In fate I have a friend who dosnt even really like super hero movies yet he thinks dark knight is really good.

 

[spiderman2]

I garenti that if this movie had a 95% on RT that it would make at least 100 million more then what it ends up making and would probly even be over the billion mark.

 

[spider-neil]

Yeah, if TASM2 was a 95% movie on RT you could bet anything you own that it would have absolutely killed it in the BO, that's just how it works, sans tranformers.

I would be making more money but it wouldn't be making SM1 money.

 

[spider-neil]

If RT and WOM were such a factor ASM2 would be bombing on BOTH sides of the Atlantic. American's are bored with Spidey where as us Europeans cant get enough of him.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I garenti that if this movie had a 95% on RT that it would make at least 100 million more then what it ends up making and would probly even be over the billion mark.

I really don't think so. If there was positive buzz then maybe the movie grosses $250m domestically. Reviews do not swing the pendulum as much as is being made out here especially for a long running franchise like this. It's a +/- 10% difference.

 

[spider-neil]

I really don't think so. If there was positive buzz then maybe the movie grosses $250m domestically. Reviews do not swing the pendulum as much as is being made out here especially for a long running franchise like this. It's a +/- 10% difference.

Agreed.

 

[spiderman2]

Then how is captian America making like double what the first one if reviews don't mean that much?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Yeah, but Sony can't hold off on making Spidey films long enough to stave off fatiue. Considering they've never went more than 3-4 years without putting out a Spidey movie with the exception of TASM where they had to sale Marvel the animation rights, I think it's an indication that Sony has to have Spidey films out nearly every 3 years to keep the license. That's just not going to sustain itself at this rate.

I agree.

But maybe the strategy is to use the Venom and S6 spin offs to allow Sony more time to reboot Spider-man if need be.

They don't have to reboot 5 years after ASM3. They can reboot 5 years after Venom 3 which could give them at least 10 years after ASM3.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

Cap 2 and ASM2 is like the tale of two franchises.

Cap 1 and ASM1 were both decent but their sequels performance are night and day..Spidey dropped and Cap reached new heights.

The only major reason for this was buzz. Buzz made all the difference.

Yessir. Buzz killed this movie. What like in the 50s? (RT) It's seriously ridiculous and way too harsh...but what can you do. Affected the BO and word of mouth.

 

[spiderman2]

Isnt asm4 coming out in 2018 though?

 

[socool]

Then how is captian America making like double what the first one if reviews don't mean that much?

Because people are interested in Cap (and most anything Marvel) at this point. It's fresh, it's new, and people pretty much expect a good time. Spider-Man is not only a 12 year old franchise (film wise) but has had 2 mediocre outings prior to this and then this received mediocre reviews. Really, as the average film goer (not a Spider-Man fan), there is little reason to see the film.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

Because people are interested in Cap (and most anything Marvel) at this point. It's fresh, it's new, and people pretty much expect a good time. Spider-Man is not only a 12 year old franchise (film wise) but has had 2 mediocre outings prior to this and then this received mediocre reviews. Really, as the average film goer (not a Spider-Man fan), there is little reason to see the film.

This. First Cap movie was three years ago! Haha. SM1 came out 12 yrs ago! People have seen Spidey already.

 

[spiderman2]

Because people are interested in Cap (and most anything Marvel) at this point. It's fresh, it's new, and people pretty much expect a good time. Spider-Man is not only a 12 year old franchise (film wise) but has had 2 mediocre outings prior to this and then this received mediocre reviews. Really, as the average film goer (not a Spider-Man fan), there is little reason to see the film.

That is why I said the last spider man movies being bad that goes with what I said about getting good reviews. How did iron man 3 make 1.2 billion when they had iron man 1,2,3 and avengers in just 5 years? That is more often then we had seen the spider man movies and only 1 less then the spider man movies. Because like I said many times iron man 1 and avengers where consider great and iron man 2 and 3 consider some what good. If avengers and iron man 2 had gotten bad reviews like asm2 and spider man 3 and some what like asm1 iron man wouldn't have done no 1.2 billion like it did. Ok avengers was new but iron man 3 wasn't new and still made a lot.

 

[spiderman2]

The biggest problem was that asm1 and 2 rather you agree or not are consider infearer to the rami ones and a lot of people still wanted spider man 4 but if asm1 and 2 where not consider infearer to the rami ones then people would have gotten over it and wouldn't be so agest these movies.

 

[jmc]

Here's what I think Sony needs to do. Spider-Man has to become episodic like the James Bond series in order to be lucrative. If they don't want to lose the rights to the character they have to immediately abandon these 'expanded universe' plans - it's not going to work for this character, this Sinister 6 and Venom nonsense has to be put on hold and focus directed entirely into making the next film self contained. Consider these two films as an overly long origin story and a failed experiment. Once emphasis is moved away from artificial world building the goal has to be not to reboot Spider-Man but to restructure what they have onto a path whereby subsequent Spider-Man films are unique in their own right, much like the Bond series. They also need to seriously look at how they finance this series, at the moments it's ludicrous to be spending so much money and seeing little return. This is the only way I believe they can stop the bleeding that's currently happening.

 

[spider-neil]

Because people are interested in Cap (and most anything Marvel) at this point. It's fresh, it's new, and people pretty much expect a good time. Spider-Man is not only a 12 year old franchise (film wise) but has had 2 mediocre outings prior to this and then this received mediocre reviews. Really, as the average film goer (not a Spider-Man fan), there is little reason to see the film.

Yep.

 

[Mr.M]

Isnt asm4 coming out in 2018 though?

ASM 4 is going to be on hold IMO. Is Garfield and Sally Fields signed for a fourth? They can get them back easy, but I think they expected 800-900 at the BO to be honest. The franchise could limp to a fourth but honestly, it's time to wrap it up unless ASM3 justifies a sequel with its box office. If not, go:

2016: ASM3 (260 million/Sinister Six)
2019: Venom (150 million budget with Spidey cameo)
2020: Black Cat (70 million)
2021: (or latest possible date until deadline): Clone Saga, Miles Morales, Spidey junior, 2099, etc.

 

[Marvin]

Cap 2 and ASM2 is like the tale of two franchises.

Cap 1 and ASM1 were both decent but their sequels performance are night and day..Spidey dropped and Cap reached new heights.

The only major reason for this was buzz. Buzz made all the difference.

Untie Cap from avengers and instead have ASM2 follow up avengers(with cameos) and it might factor in to a different scenario and international relevance.
No accounting for quality though, cap is certainly pleasing audiences more with something new and exciting whereas spidey is doing the same old thing.

 

[marcvader]

How about a movie obviously getting great wom as opposed to mediocre wom and more importantly being much much better in the first place being the reason one is doing better than another?

 

[JOE]

I didn't like The Winter Soldier, but I can see why the GA liked it.

 

[GenUsername]

If RT and WOM were such a factor ASM2 would be bombing on BOTH sides of the Atlantic. American's are bored with Spidey where as us Europeans cant get enough of him.

It's not Europe it's Asia

 

[JKKS085]

If RT and WOM were such a factor ASM2 would be bombing on BOTH sides of the Atlantic. American's are bored with Spidey where as us Europeans cant get enough of him.

Despite the lower dollar (compared to the euro and british pound levels in 2012) that actually help hidding lower ticket sales, the movie is down from TASM on every major market in Europe (Germany, Italy, Spain, France and even in the UK). Granted it's not done yet (it's almost out for 5 weeks everywhere though except for France) but I'd surprised if any of these markets shows a significant bump from TASM's final numbers (and most of them will likely finish under).

It's mostly in Asia, South America and Middle East, where the theater offer has grown exponentially in the past 2 years, that the movie is doing better business.

 

[spider-neil]

It's mostly in Asia, South America and Middle East, where the theater offer has grown exponentially in the past 2 years, that the movie is doing better business.

Why do you think that is?