The European Union

[hippie_hunter]

In one of the most predictable outcomes possible since SYRIZA came to power, talks with Greece have completely fallen apart. The European Commission has lost their patience and told the Greeks negotiations are over.

 

[regwec]

Greece's membership of the EU and the € were acts of politically motivated fraud.

 

[Taarna]

The EU was a bad idea. You just can;t have dead beats in a Union.

Greece is getting ready to sell its islands and its women.

Spain is broke.

Italy is broke. People are opting out of paying their taxes.

Sooner or later the good credit nations are going to let the dead wood go.

 

[Marvolo]

The EU was a bad idea. You just can;t have dead beats in a Union.

Greece is getting ready to sell its islands and its women.

Spain is broke.

Italy is broke. People are opting out of paying their taxes.

Sooner or later the good credit nations are going to let the dead wood go.

Sure you can. Look at South Carolina which receives over $7 of federal funding for every $1 it pays to the federal government, New Mexico and Mississippi receive $3 of federal funding for every $1 they pay back to the federal government, and Lousiana isnt much better.

At least 10 states in the US receive more from the federal government than they give back to the federal government.

 

[regwec]

They still, broadly, identify as American, though. A better analogy would be if the US were to make Mexico a US state, guarantee its debts, and write its government a series of cheques in order to cover its recklessly inflated debts.

 

[hippie_hunter]

The problem isn't the EU itself. The EU as an economic concept is a phenomenal idea. The ultimate problems stem from two key roots:

1. The Greek government, lied to enter the Eurozone. And the EU, which wanted to ensure that all of their members would be in the zone in time for its introduction didn't dig deep enough to ensure that they would be in.

2. At the time, there were no enforcement mechanisms to ensure that Eurozone member states follow the rules. After being admitted into the Eurozone when it shouldn't have been allowed to do, they continued to break the rules and no one stopped them.

Bet your ass that those two things won't happen again.

 

[hippie_hunter]

The EU was a bad idea. You just can;t have dead beats in a Union.

You can't categorize these nations as dead beats. That's just woefully inaccurate.

Greece is getting ready to sell its islands and its women.

The government in Greece are being intransigent dickwads who refuse to accept the realities of their situation. Alexis Tsprias will probably go down in history as one of the most reckless Prime Ministers in Greek history.

Spain is broke.

But Spain is still fulfilling their promises and obligations. Same with Portugal. While those countries have been hurting, they still have been able to ensure that they keep the money flowing. And it's why they're angry at Greece in the negotiations because Greece hasn't been fulfilling their promises and dragging them down.

Italy is broke. People are opting out of paying their taxes.

Italy actually isn't broke. It was always in rather healthy fiscally and was for the most part were fiscally responsible. They just had a rather high debt load, but they were capable of handling it. Then the Greek crisis happened which caused investors to panic and made a situation that should have never happened.

Sooner or later the good credit nations are going to let the dead wood go.

I think that they're just going to let Greece go and they have signaled that they are finally willing to do it. The Greek government under both New Democracy/PASOK and SYRIZA have been nothing but inept in negotiations and implementation of necessary reforms.

I am completely baffled on just how Tsprias and SYRIZA have no real understanding of how the EU works. Thinking that you can get just France and Germany on your side and using game theory was ****ing moronic. And now we have Tsprias just constantly antagonizing the people he needs to make a deal with thinking that they'll just give him free money and thinking that he's in a position to make demands.

 

[Marvolo]

Honestly, I'm really not sure what to make of Greece. The country and the whole situation surrounding them seems like the most bizarre cluster**** of ineptitude, stupidity, and a complete disregard for consequences and the effects of those consequences.

 

[regwec]

The EU establishment were fully complicit in the fraud enacted to speed Greece's accession to the Eurozone. I was there, and I remember.

The European Union is, and always has been, a crap idea devised by power-hungry, corporatist politicians and meddlesome bureaucrats with an aversion to democracy. That is to distinguish is from the European Economic Community, which was a fine idea.

The "future" of the EU, to my mind, is full fiscal political union between France, Germany and Belgium, who will continue to use the €, with the rest of the continent retrenching to a common market.

 

[hippie_hunter]

The EU establishment were fully complicit in the fraud enacted to speed Greece's accession to the Eurozone. I was there, and I remember.

The European Union is, and always has been, a crap idea devised by power-hungry, corporatist politicians and meddlesome bureaucrats with an aversion to democracy. That is to distinguish is from the European Economic Community, which was a fine idea.

The "future" of the EU, to my mind, is full fiscal political union between France, Germany and Belgium, who will continue to use the €, with the rest of the continent retrenching to a common market.

The EU needs to scale back. This "social Europe" experiment is just a complete failure. They need to go back to the roots of what made the union successful and that was economics, not politics.

 

[regwec]

Yes. The single market was effectively completed by the Dassonville and Cassis de Dijon judgments in the ECJ. Everything since then has been meddling or megalomania.

That is not to say that I approve of the judicial activism of the ECJ: Van Gend en Loos was outrageous, and the normative notion that the ECJ is the supreme authority on the interpretation of the treaties is insane.

 

[dark_b]

What the hell just happened? A referendum?????? thats the solution?

they dont have the money . and now they will ask the people what to do? they have time until tuesday/wednesday. the referendum would be on sunday.

 

[regwec]

In Tsipras's defence, accepting the bailout on the terms offered would represent a complete abandonment of the manifesto on which he was just recently elected.

The referendum is clearly a negotiating ploy, but it would be the only way to lend a semblance of democracy to the process.

We know that Troika are not keen on democracy, however. They have already hinted that Greece might need to change its government if the bailout is granted.

 

[hippie_hunter]

In Tsipras's defence, accepting the bailout on the terms offered would represent a complete abandonment of the manifesto on which he was just recently elected.

There is no in defense for Tsipras's here. Sometimes elected leaders have to make tough and unpopular decisions. That is the responsibility and burden of governance. Greece has no leverage with negotiations and their proposals have been nothing but jokes. Sometimes a leader just has to clench his/her teeth and take it up the ass.

The referendum is clearly a negotiating ploy, but it would be the only way to lend a semblance of democracy to the process.

We know that Troika are not keen on democracy, however. They have already hinted that Greece might need to change its government if the bailout is granted.

If you want democracy how about the other EU nations have referendums and ask their people if they want to continue bailing out Greece. Let's see how well that goes.

 

[regwec]

There is no in defense for Tsipras's here. Sometimes elected leaders have to make tough and unpopular decisions. That is the responsibility and burden of governance. Greece has no leverage with negotiations and their proposals have been nothing but jokes. Sometimes a leader just has to clench his/her teeth and take it up the ass.

No, you are making an argument that a sovereign people should be duped by their elected government into accepting governance wholly opposite to that for which they voted, if that happens to be more expedient for their unelected technocrat masters. That is wrong on every principle.

As I see it, to do the right thing by the Greek people, Tsipras either had to accept the Troika's conditions and then resign and call an election, or he could submit them to referendum as he is doing. I would rather he had never promised that Greece could end austerity while staying in the €, and had instead campaigned to come out of the € and the EU from the outset, but it is too late for regrets.

If you want democracy how about the other EU nations have referendums and ask their people if they want to continue bailing out Greece. Let's see how well that goes.

An excellent idea- it would prove that the "solidarity" so blandly espoused by the EU's believers is a pernicious myth devised to placate those who are being robbed of their sovereignty, prosperity and futures.

Edit: Some illustrative figures-

2014 GDP Growth: IMF

China 7.4%
India 7.2%
NZ 3.2%
Australia 2.7%
UK 2.6%
Canada 2.5%
USA 2.4%
Norway 2.2%
Switzerland 2.0%
Eurozone 0.9%

 

[Green Goblin]

I'm moderately Pro-EU

In an ideal world you would want a union with nations of similar living standards to us but I think if Easter Europe isn't in our control Putin will take over with his expansionist policy as of late

 

[regwec]

The EU is sickly and feeble, and no deterrent whatsoever to foreign aggressors.

NATO, and more particularly America, is what keeps the Putins of this world at bay.

 

[regwec]

This is pretty explosive: the EU delegation to the IMF tried to prevent the latter's report vindicating Syriza's position on the necessity of debt restructuring.

The Eurocrats have a very bad record in refusing to allow democracy or simple facts get in the way of their agenda.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Debt restructuring is obviously necessary. The actions of the Troika really aren't defensible. What I think that they're trying to do is keep Greece in a debt ridden position to essentially force much needed tax, economic, and corruption reforms that their governments have been unwilling to really tackle.

 

[regwec]

They are also scared ****less that Italy, Spain and Portugal would look at any restructuring program and say "we'll have some of that too, please". Add in the risk of contagion to the rest of the Eurozone represented by Grexit, and you have a scenario in which the Troika feel entitled to enforce abject poverty and misery on the Greeks in order to defend their own selfish interests.

I have said it before, but it blows open the myth of "solidarity" within the EU structure.

 

[regwec]

With about 7.5% of the referendum votes counted, "No" (to the bailout conditions) leads by apprx 20%.

If this pans out, the Troika and Merkel will either have to blink and return to the negotiating table, or cut Greece off and risk the implosion of the €uro.

Tonight, the EU is wobbling.

 

[hippie_hunter]

My bet is that Greece is getting cut off and will lead to Tsipras's government eventually collapsing.

 

[regwec]

That may be, but I don't think any pro-EU party can expect to lead a government or coalition there ever again.

The German Deputy Chancellor has declared that Greece has "burned its last bridges" with Europe. He is exhibiting the perennial Eurocrat mistake of assuming he speaks for a continent.

 

[hippie_hunter]

To elaborate further here's why I don't see Merkel and the Troika blinking.

- Frankly, I don't see this as an economic issue anymore. The moment the referendum happened, it became what Tsprias wanted, a political issue. After this stunning rebuke to the EU, I don't see Merkel and other European leaders having the political capital in their countries to keep on bailing out Greece.

- It isn't just Germany and Greece's creditors that are fed up with Greece. Just about everyone is. The nations that should have been most sympathetic towards Greece: Portugal, Spain, and Ireland, actually became some of Greece's fiercest critics (because unlike Greece, they followed the rules and swallowed the bitter pills of reform instead of acting like petulant children). Further concessions to Greece aren't going to fly with nations like Finland and Estonia. And during the final days of negotiations, Greece's creditors and political leaders have expressed that they are done.

- Tsprias and Varoufakis are either living in a fantasy land or are deliberately lying to their voters. A No vote is not going to strengthen Greece's hand in negotiations. Greece does not have leverage (I like to compare their hand to a poker player who has a two, a Joker, and that card that has the legal information on it). Europe and the Troika have lost their patience. And the last offer that the EU and the Troika offered was essentially "take it or leave it."

- This isn't 2010 anymore. Despite what you may say regwec, the Eurozone can handle a Grexit now. If anything Greece leaving, will probably make the Eurozone stronger.

 

[hippie_hunter]

That may be, but I don't think any pro-EU party can expect to lead a government or coalition there ever again.

I think it depends on how severe the consequences are in Greece. If things remain like they are now, absolutely, no pro-EU party can expect to lead in Greece. But if things collapse, which is no expected, most people are going to come to their senses and see that a Greece that is compliant with the EU is far better off than a bunch of reckless borderline Communists.

The German Deputy Chancellor has declared that Greece has "burned its last bridges" with Europe. He is exhibiting the perennial Eurocrat mistake of assuming he speaks for a continent.

He's expressing a sentiment that most Europeans are feeling. Most Europeans are sick of bailing out Greece at this point only for Greece to essentially give them the middle finger. Bailouts have been politically unpopular in Germany, Finland, etc. The other PIIGS countries are frustrated because they followed the rules and did the necessary reforms to get back on track. You brought up a good point earlier that if they cave into Greece, it will lead to all sorts of political problems (the collapse of Germany's government, the other PIIGS demanding similar forgiveness, etc.).

Greece really did burn some bridges here. And now they will suffer for it.