The First Batch of Oscar Predictions

[Galactus]

Los Angeles Film Critics Association Sez WALL-E Is Tops For 2008!
Beaks here...



At a screening last week, a colleague of mine told me that he expected the Los Angeles Film Critics Association to be the first group to hail THE DARK KNIGHT as the Best Film of 2008. Turns out he was almost right.

Long known for championing the underdog in the face of a runaway favorite (previous winners include THERE WILL BE BLOOD, SIDEWAYS and AMERICAN SPLENDOR), the LAFCA has cast their vote for Andrew Stanton's WALL-E, while naming Chris Nolan's Batman epic as their "runner-up". For those of you thinking Nolan for Best Director would be a fair trade-off, not so fast. The SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE juggernaut needs to be appeased, so it's Danny Boyle over, once again, "runner-up" Nolan. If you're guessing Best Supporting Actor for Heath Ledger is the consolation prize, you'd be correct (over HAPPY-GO LUCKY'S Eddie Marsan).

As with the National Board of Review, these awards shouldn't be taken as accurate Oscar barometers. All they do is provide a little momentum (which often dissipates very quickly, as was the heartbreaking case with AMERICAN SPLENDOR). Here's the complete list of winners:



Picture: WALL-E
Runner-up: THE DARK KNIGHT

Director: Danny Boyle, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
Runner-up: Christopher Nolan, THE DARK KNIGHT

Actor: Sean Penn, MILK
Runner-up: Mickey Rourke, THE WRESTLER

Actress: Sally Hawkins, HAPPY-GO LUCKY
Runner-up: Melissa Leo, FROZEN RIVER

Supporting actor: Heath Ledger, THE DARK KNIGHT
Runner-up: Eddie Marsan, HAPPY-GO LUCKY

Supporting actress: Penelope Cruz, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA and ELEGY
Runner-up: Viola Davis, DOUBT

Screenplay: Mike Leigh, HAPPY-GO LUCKY
Runner-up: Charlie Kaufman, SYNECDOCHE, NEW YORK

Foreign-language film: STILL LIFE
Runner-up: THE CLASS

Documentary: MAN ON WIRE
Runner-up: WALTZ WITH BASHIR

Animation: WALTZ WITH BASHIR

Cinematography: Yu Lik Wai, STILL LIFE
Runner-up: Anthony Dod Mantle, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

Production design: Mark Friedberg, SYNECDOCHE, NEW YORK
Runner-up: Nathan Crowley, THE DARK KNIGHT

Music/score: A.R. Rahman, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
Runner-up: Alexandre Desplat, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON

New Generation: Steve McQueen, HUNGER

Douglas E. Edwards independent/experimental film/video: James Benning, RR and CASTING A GLANCE

 

[dark phenom]

The Dark Knight score is nothing short of epic so I'm glad its eligible again.

 

[The Senator]

*bump*

With the awards season in high gear, does anyone have any predictions as to what will be nominated?

 

[Laderlappen]

The 5 films feels very set at his point:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Seems unlikely that any of them will miss out.

 

[Nirvana]

The 5 films feels very set at his point:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Seems unlikely that any of them will miss out.

That seems like the strongest prediction with either Doubt taking over the fifth spot from Frost/Nixon or even The Dark Knight.

 

[TLH]

I think these four are locks for Best Picture nominations:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

IMO, the fifth nomination will go to either The Dark Knight or The Wrestler. I'd be great if TDK got the nomination, but the Academy has proven they don't care about ratings/relevancy etc.

 

[luke1234]

The 5 films feels very set at his point:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Seems unlikely that any of them will miss out.

Yup thatll be it, i still dont understand what the big hype is for Frost/Nixon, that movie was boring and doesnt come close to any of those other films. Id like to see The Wrestler or Wall-e take that spot

 

[The Senator]

My Oscar predictions (winners in italics):

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/ Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/ Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Petal, Slumdog Millionaire
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Kate Winslet, The Reader

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Sumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/ Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

 

[Doctor Jones]

Anyone think the academy could pull a surprise and nominate Franco for Pineapple Express? I always had a small hunch that they would. I'm probably wrong.

Franco's body of work has been very impressive lately. He's really becoming an excellent actor.

 

[cerealkiller182]

id say the noms are spot on except Dev Patel as SUPPORTING actor.

I think Slumdog and Boyle will be taken home the awards instead of Button and Fincher, but them 2 are the most certainly the front runners.

I hope Rourke wins the best actor, i think he really deserves it

 

[luke1234]

Anyone think the academy could pull a surprise and nominate Franco for Pineapple Express? I always had a small hunch that they would. I'm probably wrong.

Franco's body of work has been very impressive lately. He's really becoming an excellent actor.

hahha i agree, i thought he did a better acting job then Brolin in Milk to be honest and he was awesome in pineapple. Its an unlikely choice but I wouldnt mind hah.

 

[terry78]

I predict Sean Penn might upset and win for Milk, just for the subject matter alone.

 

[[A]]

^ and will party in Cuba?

 

[The Chris]

I'm thinking...

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/ Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST ACTOR
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/ Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Petal, Slumdog Millionaire
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Kate Winslet, The Reader

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Sumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/ Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Adapted Screenplay
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
Doubt
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Original Screenplay
Milk
Wall-E
The Wrestler
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Burn After Reading (?)

Best Editing
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
Frost/Nixon
Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Cinematography
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
Milk (hopefully)

Best Visual Effects
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Have no idea about the rest

I'd rather have aronofsky over Howard but, I don't think that's happening.

Thinking about for techinical awards

 

[Dr. Evil]

As great as that role is, I don't see Robert Downey Jr. getting nominated as the dude who's playing a dude disguised as another dude. The Academy is known for being high brow and pretentious and not giving comedies it's respect.

If he does get nominated tough, not going to complain about it.

 

[Laderlappen]

Anyone think the academy could pull a surprise and nominate Franco for Pineapple Express? I always had a small hunch that they would. I'm probably wrong.

Franco's body of work has been very impressive lately. He's really becoming an excellent actor.

It wont happen, but he might get in for Milk.

 

[The Chris]

As great as that role is, I don't see Robert Downey Jr. getting nominated as the dude who's playing a dude disguised as another dude. The Academy is known for being high brow and pretentious and not giving comedies it's respect.

If he does get nominated tough, not going to complain about it.

I don't know of anyone else, I mean supporting actor isn't really as packed I don't think as the others.

 

[danoyse]

As great as that role is, I don't see Robert Downey Jr. getting nominated as the dude who's playing a dude disguised as another dude. The Academy is known for being high brow and pretentious and not giving comedies it's respect.

If he does get nominated tough, not going to complain about it.

If he does get nominated (and I think he will) it's more in recognition of his great comeback this year then just that performance alone.

 

[Heretic]

I just want to say that...as a geek...if a comic book movie AND a wrestling movie get nominated for best picture...I would be very happy indeed.

 

[scifiwolf]

I just thought I'd bring this thread back to the front page so the forum doesn't have a new Oscar thread pop up in an hour. It's kind of interesting to look back and see how the race has changed. Looking at the original post, a lot of front runners are still there, but their relative strength has shifted, or completely disappeared (Australia, Changeling). Frost/Nixon is still there, but has lost a lot of favor, while Slumdog Millionaire has gained ground. I wonder where the race would be now if the original plan to make Slumdog a direct to DVD release had been carried out...

By Garth Franklin
Monday, October 13th 2008 3:10am
We're still about two months off from having all this year's qualifying films being screened for the professional critics, but already eight Oscar gurus have weighed in with The Los Angeles Times, and have given their predictions for the ceremony in February.

At present it's Ron Howard's "Frost/Nixon" leading the charge with seven of the eight critics agreeing that the film will get a Best Picture nomination. David Fincher's "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and Gus Van Sant's "Milk" come in second with six critics agreeing they will be nommed. Also on the list are "Doubt" (5 noms), "Revolutinary Road" (4 noms), "Slumdog Millionaire" (3 noms), "The Dark Knight" (2 noms) and Australia (2 noms).

All eight agree that Frank Langella and Mickey Rourke will be nominated for Best Actor for their work in "Frost/Nixon" and "The Wrestler" respectively. Sean Penn in "Milk" also seems a shoe-in with 7 noms. On the other side of the gender question, both Meryl Streep ("Doubt") and Anne Hathaway ("Rachel Getting Married") are tipped for Best Actress with 7 noms each. Kristin Scott Thomas (""), Kate Winslet ("Revolutionary Road"), Angelina Jolie ("Changeling") and Sally Hawkins ("Happy-Go-Lucky") also seem to be potential contenders.

 

[MissHades]

Although I don't think it is the most perfect movie ever, IMO TDK was better than the overrated Benjamin Button, hands down. But, as it will be impossible to it to win, at least I hope Slumdog sweeps everything.

 

[scifiwolf]

You know, I don't think Ben Button was overrated. I think it lacked some emotional draw, but it was the best commentary on mortality I've ever seen in my life.

And Vortep, while the movie may not get a BP nom, it is a general consensus that Nolan has an outstanding shot for a director nomination. Along with the other categories, TDK should be looking at 7-10 nominations this morning.

 

[Dark Donnie]

Steaming Live

http://www.etonline.com/awards/oscars/2009/2009/01/69946/

 

[terry78]

Any minute now....place your bets.

 

[Rocker22]

Should be interesting.