The First Batch of Oscar Predictions

[The Dude]

Soloist moving out shakes up a whole lot for predictions. Foxx was considered to be the top candidate to challenge Ledger for supporting actor, and his drop out (along with The Road) opens up for the likes of Eddie Marsan (Happy-Go-Lucky), and Christian McKay (Me and Orson Welles), and also it can't hurt my hope of a Downey Jr. Tropic Thunder nomination (it's a dream)

With Downey out of Best Actor now I like Pitt, DiCaprio, and Brolin (W. may end up being a bad film, but Brolin looks impressive) to possibly capitalize.

 

[Sarge 2.0]

I dunno, I think Downey's performance might get a nod. It was certainly good enough.

 

[Dark Donnie]

Soloist moving out shakes up a whole lot for predictions. Foxx was considered to be the top candidate to challenge Ledger for supporting actor, and his drop out (along with The Road) opens up for the likes of Eddie Marsan (Happy-Go-Lucky), and Christian McKay (Me and Orson Welles), and also it can't hurt my hope of a Downey Jr. Tropic Thunder nomination (it's a dream)

With Downey out of Best Actor now I like Pitt, DiCaprio, and Brolin (W. may end up being a bad film, but Brolin looks impressive) to possibly capitalize.

It really does....people had RDJ pegged for BA, Foxx for SA, and Joe Wright for Director.

Pitt, Penn, Rourke and DiCaprio sound like the front runners for nominations(from what I've read). Sounds like Langella(Frost/Nixon), Eastwood(Gran Torino), Brolin (W) will be fighting for the remaining spot.

I think a film like Defiance could be like Blood Diamond (same director funny enough) and have one of the actors sneak into a category.

 

[Sarge 2.0]

I doubt DiCaprio would get nominated. He was good in Body of Lies, but he was far better in the Aviator, and I think he'll do better in the future. I'm still kind of pissed that Jamie Foxx beat him in 2004, because I thought DiCaprio's performance was better. That's not to say Jamie wasn't fantastic or that he's not a great actor, but I just felt DiCaprio put forth a really nuanced performance that got shafted due to Ray Charles dying shortly before (or was it shortly after? I forget) the film came out.

 

[Dark Donnie]

I doubt DiCaprio would get nominated. He was good in Body of Lies, but he was far better in the Aviator, and I think he'll do better in the future. I'm still kind of pissed that Jamie Foxx beat him in 2004, because I thought DiCaprio's performance was better. That's not to say Jamie wasn't fantastic or that he's not a great actor, but I just felt DiCaprio put forth a really nuanced performance that got shafted due to Ray Charles dying shortly before (or was it shortly after? I forget) the film came out.

I think DiCaprio will get nominated for Revolutionary Road not Body of Lies.

 

[Sarge 2.0]

That comes out in January 2009, I doubt it'll get considered.

 

[Dark Donnie]

It's actually Christmas or the day after I believe.

 

[Dark Donnie]

Soloist moving out shakes up a whole lot for predictions. Foxx was considered to be the top candidate to challenge Ledger for supporting actor, and his drop out (along with The Road) opens up for the likes of Eddie Marsan (Happy-Go-Lucky), and Christian McKay (Me and Orson Welles), and also it can't hurt my hope of a Downey Jr. Tropic Thunder nomination (it's a dream)

With Downey out of Best Actor now I like Pitt, DiCaprio, and Brolin (W. may end up being a bad film, but Brolin looks impressive) to possibly capitalize.

'The Soloist' pushed to next year
Oct 16, 2008, 09:17 PM | by Dave Karger

Categories: Best Picture



And another one bites the dust? Now I'm hearing that Nikki Finke's report at Deadline Hollywood Daily is indeed true, that Paramount/DreamWorks' true-life drama The Soloist, starring Robert Downey Jr. and Jamie Foxx, is being pushed to 2009 as part of Paramount's overall decision to cut back on the number of films it releases each year. This is all happening after Soloist director Joe Wright (Atonement) was flown in from London to New York a few weeks ago to host an early screening of the film for high-profile Manhattan media types to kick off its campaign. While the film probably wouldn't have been a frontrunner for Best Picture, it would have had a shot at a Best Supporting Actor nod for Foxx, particularly because that category is shaping up to be one of the weakest this year. One guy who'll now certainly get an even bigger supporting-actor push from Paramount? Downey Jr., for his riotous performance in Tropic Thunder.

http://oscar-watch.ew.com/2008/10/the-soloist-pus.html

 

[Watson]

Theoretically, if TDK were nominated for best picture and won, how badly would these boards explode?

 

[Cinemaman]

I think that, in a way, Eckhart and Oldman were just as good as Heath but because Heath is dead he will get a nomination, just like how the movie made over 500mil because of that sad fact.

The times of The Crowe have gone, now you need the quality, star's death works for marketing, not good WOM.

 

[Cinemaman]

I would also consider Valkyrie and Cruise as serious competitors for Best Picture and Leading Actor.

 

[Watson]

What about The Duchess? I could see Fiennes sneaking into the SA category, and the film is being positioned I think to get Kiera Knighlty a nod for best actress. Plus it will definitely pick up a nom for costumes or cinematography. With not a very strong field this year it's definitely possible.

 

[Laderlappen]

Neither Foxx, Downey Jr., or Wright was barely on ANY prediction list. They DEFINETLY wasn't one of the top choices. Valkyrie doesnt have any chance. Like less than 1%.

 

[Infinity9999x]

I think that, in a way, Eckhart and Oldman were just as good as Heath but because Heath is dead he will get a nomination, just like how the movie made over 500mil because of that sad fact.

Heath's death contributed to the huge opening weekend, I'll agree with you there, but to say the reason it made 500mil was only because of Heath's death is ridiculous. It was on top for too many weeks for that to be the only factor, Heath's death contributed to it for the first two weeks at most, after that it was the insane word of mouth that drove the movie to keep making more money.

 

[Dark Donnie]

Neither Foxx, Downey Jr., or Wright was barely on ANY prediction list. They DEFINETLY wasn't one of the top choices.

Yes it was...it was on countless lists hence the surprise of it being moved. Not necessarily winning, but there was a shot at nominations.

 

[bapi]

I would also consider Valkyrie and Cruise as serious competitors for Best Picture and Leading Actor.

No, I don't believe in that movie. Well, maybe Valkyrie will be a good movie but it'll be a Box Office and Oscar disaster, I think.

Leading Actors... Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) and Brad Pitt (Ben Button) look very 'probable'. So there are still three free places and many candidates: Hugh Jackman (Australia), Sean Penn (Milk), Leo, Ralph Fiennes, somebody from Frost/Nixon or Benicio Del Toro as Che.

But in 'Supporting' category it looks REALLY good for Heath...

 

[Dark Donnie]

Ledger to go supporting, WB says
Posted by Kristopher Tapley · 9:33 am · October 17th, 2008
Heath Ledger is “100% supporting,” according to Entertainment Weekly’s Dave Karger. It seems Karger did what I was too lazy to do this week: call the studio and get the goods. I figured we’d just wait until an FYC site popped up, but for now, it seems to be settled.
The “Dark Knight” star has been batted around as a lead actor contender by pundits, including yours truly, but even with the news that “The Soloist” and (possibly) “The Road” have vacated the 2008 season — leaving two fresh holes in the lead actor gerby — Warner Bros. is going to be campaigning Ledger as a supporting actor.
Wise move. And truthful to both the performance and the material.

www.ew.com

 

[Laderlappen]

Yes it was...it was on countless lists hence the surprise of it being moved. Not necessarily winning, but there was a shot at nominations.

I have no idea what list you've been looking at. RDJ was a pretty big choice for supporting before he was comfirmed lead. They were on some lists, but very little of them. When they trailer came out, everybody thought it looked like a mess. If we go back one week ago Penn, Dicaprio, Rourke, Pitt, Langella, Jenkins, Mortenson, Brolin, Del Toro, & Hoffman were all bigger contenders than RDJ. Ledger, Brolin, RDJ, Smith-McPhee, Hoffman(smae performance as in lead), Franco was bigger contenders than Foxx. MAYBE a few more. Pretty much nobody is predicting Wright anymore.

 

[Dark Donnie]

I have no idea what list you've been looking at. RDJ was a pretty big choice for supporting before he was comfirmed lead. They were on some lists, but very little of them. When they trailer came out, everybody thought it looked like a mess. If we go back one week ago Penn, Dicaprio, Rourke, Pitt, Langella, Jenkins, Mortenson, Brolin, Del Toro, & Hoffman were all bigger contenders than RDJ. Ledger, Brolin, RDJ, Smith-McPhee, Hoffman(smae performance as in lead), Franco was bigger contenders than Foxx. MAYBE a few more. Pretty much nobody is predicting Wright anymore.

Whose everybody? The trailer was pretty well received I thought.....

Incontention
AOL

Were two sites I saw today that listed RDJ and Foxx.

 

[Octoberist]

i feel like last year had a stronger roster of 'Oscar' potentials than this year. 2008 is bit lowkey when it comes to Oscar bait.

 

[BlackLantern]

If it was my choice I'd sooner see Eckhardt get the nod over Ledger...they can give Ledger one of those honorary ones in a few years....

 

[Octoberist]

Again, what role made Dark Knight so special? It was all Ledger.

I admire the work done by Oldman, Eckhardt, Bale, and the others in the movie, but Ledger made the role so special that it overshadows the talent involved with the movie. That's why everyone's going 'ga-ga' over Ledger, and not the other guys; it's not of any sort of disrespect.

 

[BlackLantern]

They are only going 'ga-ga' because he's dead....that's it....I was not blown away by his Joker....

 

[Nirvana]

Pretty strange how the Soloist was pushed, I guess that leaves more room for the Lead Actor.

Pitt, Penn, Rourke and DiCaprio sound like the front runners for nominations(from what I've read). Sounds like Langella(Frost/Nixon), Eastwood(Gran Torino), Brolin (W) will be fighting for the remaining spot.

I honestly think that's how it'll end up. Pitt, Penn, Rourke, and DiCaprio all almost guaranteed with those three fighting off for the remaining spot.

And as far as Supporting Actor goes, that would be pretty cool if Downey. Jr got nominated for Tropic Thunder.

 

[Octoberist]

sure his death plays a role, but it's a bit ignorant to think that it's the only..ONLY.. reason why Heath was praised.

in my honestly, I was blown away from it. There's only a minority of people who were not, and that's just how it is.