Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

Easy money should no longer apply to CB movies. People are well past that. Go out there and earn it.

This I can agree with

Something tells me Captain America won't do too hot overseas....

I hope his name isn't setting him up for overseas failure, that would just be bullspit. I'm also pretty sure that's why they're tagging on "First Avenger" to the film title as well. So the GA overseas (not familiar with the character but interested in Avengers) knows he's connected to them

 

[Spider-Fan]

If this has a 60% drop, and that keeps happening, then it will prob just outgross IM1 and make something like $320mil. Considering TIH made a whole lot less and Iron Man was not that popular prior to IM1, I say Marvel should be happy they have a property that can make over 300 mil easy. However, considering IM1's BO take and the good will that film got, Marvel was probably hoping for more.

I don't see Thor making IM1's level BO. Cap can, because he has more name recognition, but the film has to be very good in order to do so. I hope neither of these characters get overshadowed by needless cameos. While I enjoyed IM2 a lot, Black Widow was completely unneccessary. Hopefully Marvel doesn't repeat these mistakes and do crap like put Namor in Captain America.

I do think that Cap's international numbers sucking is not as easy to call as some predict. Superhero films don't do well internationally for the most part, but the fact Cap is Captain America can instantly help its BO because his name instantly evokes a response around the world (being the embodiment of America). I can see that working in his favor and getting him more press and attention around the world, as opposed to driving down numbers. I think both are possible.

 

[jmc]

^ I think your assessment on Cap Am's worldwide potential might be a little bit backwards.

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

^I could see that too

 

[Spider-Fan]

^ I think your assessment on Cap Am's worldwide potential might be a little bit backwards.

It not doing well internationally is quite possible. But, at the same time, people sometimes go see things that sound controversial, just because they're controversial. That is why I think there is also a possibility we can see Cap surprise us internationally.

 

[hatebox]

The problem with Captain America is that it's being directed by Joe Johnston, ergo: it will be a bad film. Add that to list of it being a new franchise and having that title and it's intl. chances do look pretty slim.

But hey, stranger things have happened at the box office.

 

[Lord Blackbolt]

Joe Johnston has done some fun movies...You can't blame him for the mess of JP4 and wolfman. there were problems with those productions before he was even brought on.

 

[kedrell]

According to ERC, IM2 gets a $53M 2nd weekend; RH gets a $37M, LTJ gets 13.7M

http://***********/ERCboxoffice

http://www.facebook.com/ercboxoffice/posts/108198359224926

Not bad, not real good. Basically average. 58% drop.

 

[hatebox]

So the $53m figure, rather than the $49m from the subsequent estimate, held true. Weird. Robin Hood was also slightly higher than thought a few hours ago. The actuals will be interesting.

 

[kedrell]

True. I wonder if IM2 having a smaller multiplier from Thursday's number than SM3 did(even though IM2 was doing $200-400K more per day since tuesday than SM3) can mostly be chalked up to the differences in their competition on the 2nd weekends? SM3's closest film behind it didn't even make it to a $10M weekend, where as IM2 had a $37M opener. Food for thought.

 

[hatebox]

It certainly would have done better if Robin Hood hadn't come out at all, but given the summer months usually have a big movie getting released every week IM2 can probably count itself lucky RH performed as it did. In hindsight IM1 was particularly fortunate that Speed Racer and and Narnia were complete bombs.

The next two weeks have big movies that really don't compete for IM2's demographic so the drops will tell us how word of mouth is going for it.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I am looking forward to Thor way more than Cap solely because of the directors.

Oh and controversy creates cash. I think Cap will do better overseas than people think.

 

[dark_b]

You know what... **** TF2 and **** 400 million. It's a number... nothing more. We'll get over it. If anything it keeps Marvel hungry. If they continue to be conservative and not take chances, settle for mediocrity or what has worked in the past, their numbers will level off. Easy money should no longer apply to CB movies. People are well past that. Go out there and earn it.

when a movie doesnt brake records then numbers dont matter.when the movie didnt get the oscar.....the oscars are not miportant right?

come on Fat-tonie you know how this sounds.t:

IM2 was supposed to brake the house down. it didnt. the numbers are very important on SHH. they allways were and they allways will be.

 

[Mauser9910]

I've looked at the numbers in France and I was very sad to see that in week 2 the #1 movie was a bad comedy (Camping 2 -also a sequel) that was released 3 weeks ago. IM2 was right behind and it was the opposite 2 weeks ago.
So yeah, it's a little dissapointing to see IM2 isn't doing better - or at least better than this stupid competition.

 

[Mace Dolex]

I like reading through these silly B.O. predictions and in the end me not caring, but in general Iron Man 2 is a good decent sequel not as fun as IM1 but definitely better than Marvel's other lame franchises like FF, Punisher, Ghost Rider, Elektra.

I wouldn't be worried about Robin Hood taking away from IM2's box office numbers, the movie is just a lame excuse to make RH darker and moodier for todays audiences but people will never get Kevin Costner or Disney's animated version out of their heads.

 

[Crook]

Dropping 59% percent is not terrible, but also not good. I agree, 400 mil domestic is a longshot. However, I think that was asking a lot of it in the first place. I still think this has to go down as a success for Marvel, even if it craps out around 350mil.

What are you smoking? This film had everything going for it in the sequel.

The first made 318 million with GREAT reception critically and financially, from a B-list hero. The momentum they had practically guaranteed 400 million, given that the sequel didn't stray too far from what made the first one so good and accessible.

IM2s final box office take will be a success in the sense that they keep the brand name alive and made a "satisfactory" profit. But taking into account the great head-start they were afforded while making the sequel, and the pathetic competition right now, this is absolutely a disappointment.

 

[BestGirl]

I really can't figure out what's going on with IM's BO. I thought sequels were supposed to piggyback off the success of the original, and IM2 felt like enough of a crowd-pleaser that WOM should have been pretty good.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

What are you smoking? This film had everything going for it in the sequel.

The first made 318 million with GREAT reception critically and financially, from a B-list hero. The momentum they had practically guaranteed 400 million, given that the sequel didn't stray too far from what made the first one so good and accessible.

IM2s final box office take will be a success in the sense that they keep the brand name alive and made a "satisfactory" profit. But taking into account the great head-start they were afforded while making the sequel, and the pathetic competition right now, this is absolutely a disappointment.

You have a point. Listen, the movie is a success because it will make money for the studio but we and they were expecting better because of the buzz of the first movie. If the first movie had made over 400mil I wouldn't even expect the movie to do better than the first one to be honest but it didn't, it made 318mil and thus had room to grow alot like Pirates did, like Transformers did, like Batman did, like X-Men did and other films.

It is strange to say that this gross is disappointing because 300+mil is still alot of money and more than most movies get but it has been disappointing so far. The opening weekend was disappointing and this drop, although it isn't the worst ever, is not fantastic or anything considering the movie didn't open with that 150mil+ that everybody thought it would. It would be a whole other story if it did but it didn't so the story now is disappointing but still huge boxoffice numbers.

If the movie did better with the critics and people were liking it as much or more than the first I don't think that these numbers would matter that much. The whole movie just has the smell of disappointment all over it and it doesn't matter if you love or hate the movie but it does have that smell.

I don't believe that 53mil estimate. I could be wrong but I expect that the movie did like 51 or 52mil when the actuals come out on monday. It just feels like the studio is trying to get it's drop below 60% in the press. Again, if I'm wrong so be it but thats the feeling I have now.

 

[Evil Twin]

At this point, I think it's fair to say that IM2 simply didn't expand the audience of the first one.

I think that's in part because the general audience doesn't give a darn about Nick Fury, Black Widow, Whiplash, War Machine, and Justin Hammer. And, because, although talented, the cast isn't full of box office attractions other than RDJ. RDJ's recent turn in Sherlock Holmes may have taken some of the edge off his reprise of Tony Stark as far as the public is concern.

It's still a success, but Marvel probably needs to take a step back and evaluate how to proceed for IM3.

 

[ElMariachi]

Can someone answer me something. Why do you people care about how much money this makes in comparison to other movies? Are you actually invested in these films? If not, then who cares? It already made a lot of money and sequels are guaranteed. So you can argue more with these insufferable batman dorks and nolan zealots that plague every message board like an std?

Money means nothing unless it bombs, rendering a sequel unlikely. We are getting avengers and im3 for sure. Personally, I think the curious negative reviews of this movie stem from a little line you all probally forgot about in the beginning of iron man 2. Remember when tony said he was tired of the "liberal agenda"? Don't put it past hollywood and the journalists my friends. This movie in all honesty no better or worse then the first. Re-read reviews and see how silly the criticisms are. Few movies would ever be judged so harshly on minor details with the high level of acting ability in this movie.

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

RDJ's recent turn in Sherlock Holmes may have taken some of the edge off his reprise of Tony Stark as far as the public is concern.

 

[Tony Stark]

The number was below 60% which I think is good. Considering what SM3's Sunday drop was you can see IM2 has much stronger legs and the weekly numbers it's going to gain, I think next week you'll see IM2's numbers ahead of SM3's.

I also am not counting out the actuals being closer to the 55 mil that was originally expected. Like I say, I'm sure Paramount was being uber conservative after being off by 5 mil last week.

The numbers are actually very good, despite what the haters say, and while 400 million may be a longshot now, I think the movie will end up with a 360-380, or around a 2.8 multiplier, which is damn good.

The haters make no sense when they talk about this being a lock for 400 mil. They say the movie was no good, yet it's ranking an "A" on the industry word of mouth standards, and was an 88% on RT user reviews. TF2 made over 400 million and it was unversally panned by the critics and the fans. So what's the difference?

Well for one, in May there's basically only Spider-man and Iron Man that have ruled the box office. Having a June/July release, means bigger daily numbers (summer vacation, etc.), and getting in the holiday weekend.

Secondly, historically the first weekend in may is usually a better weekend than the second. This was one of those odd years where May 1st fell on a Saturday. But look at last year, Woverine had a better opening than Star Trek, but there's no question what the better film was, and which one had more success.

Year over year, IM2 had a better second weekend than Angels and Demons opening, and was over 10 million more than Star Trek's second weekend.

People get too concerned over the percentage drops. That only measures how front loaded a movie is. IM2 because of the anticipation was bound to be front loaded.

There's no questioning however, that IM2 will be Marvel's no. 2 success behind Spider-man, and has elevated his status to a tentpole character. Who would have thought 5 years ago that Iron Man would be more popular than Wolverine?

 

[hatebox]

Can someone answer me something. Why do you people care about how much money this makes in comparison to other movies? Are you actually invested in these films? If not, then who cares? It already made a lot of money and sequels are guaranteed. So you can argue more with these insufferable batman dorks and nolan zealots that plague every message board like an std?

This is a box office thread. If you're not interested in discussing numbers then move along.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Can someone answer me something. Why do you people care about how much money this makes in comparison to other movies? Are you actually invested in these films? If not, then who cares?

Its fun. Isn't that what the interwebz are for? Or is it for generalizing anyone who finds IM2's BO dissapointing "Nolan zealot" and "insufferable Batman dork"?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Wait so the critics didn't love Iron Man 2 because of a throwaway line? Thats just delusional. Most still liked the movie enough to give it good enough notices anyway so the idea that this movie is hated among critics is silly and unfounded.

Tony, it appears that you are letting your love of the movie cloud your opinion of it's boxoffice. It's silly to judge boxoffice numbers based on what you love or hate. This movie has no chance of making 400mil BTW. It would need a 3.13 multiplier to get there and it has no chance in hell getting those kind of legs after this drop. It would have had to have a 50 to 53% drop for that to have had a shot of happening. I'd be shocked if this movie gets a 2.8 multiplier after that drop and the lukewarm word of mouth. It could ofcourse, depending on the 3rd and 4th weekend numbers but I just don't see it happening.

Loved by the audience or not it was never going to have legs as good or better than the first because sequels just don't do that.