Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[ElMariachi]

It is overrated to me as well, but that's because I can't stand the "birth" scene. The idea of that just seems to be as weird and "grossout" as possible for the heck of it. The movie is at its best when it is merely presenting ideas. The first time I saw it was actually in a Philosophy of Film class in 2007, so the ideas were the main stuff we focused on. The themes are great, and looking back it is pretty surprising that a major studio funded it because the philosophical ideas presented are very much against the big conglomerates that run the world (including Time Warner).

yeah, the themes and philosophy of that movie was for sure interesting and pretty new. But at the same time, it's all too heavy and would rather watch BB/IM many more times then I would Matrix. It all boils down to what makes a better movie, the themes/storytelling or how continously entertaining it is.

 

[redfirebird2008]

yeah, the themes and philosophy of that movie was for sure interesting and pretty new. But at the same time, it's all too heavy and would rather watch BB/IM many more times then I would Matrix. It all boils down to what makes a better movie, the themes/storytelling or how continously entertaining it is.

I've only seen the Matrix probably 2 times all the way through. Generally I am not a sci-fi fan so it's tough for me to rewatch those kinds of movies over an over. I've seen both IM1 and BB more than 10 times.

 

[Crook]

The first Matrix is quite heavily regarded as one of the quintessential mainstream blockbusters that have achieved both. I wouldn't be surprised if half the audience didn't get the deeper layers of the film, as they enjoyed the action enough to just sit back and watch.

 

[S.A.A.D.]

Double post.

 

[S.A.A.D.]

Sorry,but I still don't see the movie hitting the 600$ million worldwide mark. I'm just not feeling it.

 

[TheVileOne]

Sorry,but I still don't see the movie hitting the 600$ million worldwide mark. I'm just not feeling it.

It's going to happen whether you like it or not.

 

[danoyse]

Getting back to the subject, I'm real curious why Paramount pulled all their advertising after opening. Did anyone see any "go see the no.1 movie in the country" type advertising? Cause I sure didn't.

I saw 2 Burger King commercials promoting IM2 last night, I passed a 7-11 on my way home that still had Iron Man posters all over the windows, and right I'm drinking a Dr. Pepper with an Iron Man mask on the can, so I wouldn't say the advertising has slowed any.

I honestly wonder if there's some bad blood between Paramount and Marvel with the Disney aquisition, and I thought that since before the film. The whole advertising scheme was very subdued for Iron Man 2, pretty much banking on the success of the first movie. Paramount really wasn't going to see alot of the profits, compared to Marvel.

Now I didn't think the advertising for the first movie was great either, but I chalked that up to a new studio trying to cut costs.

Actually, the advertising for this has been pretty crazy...Stephen Colbert did a great spoof on this last week in his "Movies That Are Destroying America" segment: http://www.colbertnation.com/the-co...are-destroying-america---summer-movie-edition

 

[TheVileOne]

All through the weekend I was still seeing TV spots on cable networks for Iron Man 2, so they are still promoting the movie.

It's not in Paramount's best interest right now to be sour about Disney since they have distribution deals onThor and Cap and Avengers and if those movies do less money that means their percentage of the gross they get will be lower.

Then again, I wouldn't put it outside the realm of studio executives of not doing petty BS like that.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Of those four I actually think Iron Man is the worst...that not to say I didn't enjoy it, I just never thought IM was as good as everyone made it out to be.

I wouldnt say its the worst of those four, but there isnt much in it for me, despite IM1 having a high critical rating on RT, I never remember reading an absolutely 'glowing' review of it. Empire and Total Film both gave it 3/5, and I find it hard to disagree with them.

I like what Howard did in the first film, but Cheadle is a better actor, and he was better in this. I think the vast majority prefer him over Howard.

I dont think the vast majority preferred Cheadle at all, he may be a better actor, but I personally preferred Howard in the role, and have heard many say the same.

I'm a huge IM fan and loved both movies but I agree that it wasn't as good as BB(although it was a lot more fun)and personally I think I did like it a bit more than the first Spider-Man but that's probably because I like IM comics more than Spider-Man comics.

One thing I don't agree on is X1 being better than IM. I remember in the past I See Spidey had posted that watching the first X-men movie after all these years, it felt and looked almost like a TV movie. I have to agree with that, the movie hasn't exactly aged all that well but X2 is still great.

I didnt actually say X1 was better than IM1, just that IM1 is not leagues ahead of X1 in terms of quality, for me, there isnt much between them at all, same with Spidey, but BB is definately better than it, and I am a much bigger Marvel fan than a DC one.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I hated Howard as Rhodey. He was one of my complaints about IM1. He was awful and meek. That is not Rhodey. I felt Cheadle was much better.

 

[Figs]

Getting back to the subject, I'm real curious why Paramount pulled all their advertising after opening. Did anyone see any "go see the no.1 movie in the country" type advertising? Cause I sure didn't.

Shortly after it's first weekend I constantly saw TV spots saying how it's the #1 movie and showed the footage of him falling out of the plane towards the expo and all around him was placed the names of magazines/papers that gave it good reviews. They're still keeping it going, I saw the same one the last few nights as well.

 

[Tony Stark]

Glad to hear they're still advertising. I just had not seen any, but the only shows I've been watching have been 24, Lost and V. I realize they're still putting alot of advertising with product placement, and I see that stuff all over the place, 7-11, Burger King, etc.

Speaking of that is Burger King Marvel's official fast food joint? They've pretty much promoted every Spider-man movie, both Iron Man, the two Fantastic Four movies, and I think X-men too.

 

[hatebox]

Foreign revenues haven't been updated for for 9 days on Boxofficemojo, but since it's already been out for over 3 weeks in most territories I can't see too much money left there, although I won't pretend to understand the nuances of the foreign market. $600m ww should be fine, but over 650 will be a push at this rate given it's 'only' on 427 at the moment.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Monday estimate is $3.7m. Ouch, that's a 74% drop. It might not even reach IM1's domestic gross at the rate things are going.

 

[Tony Stark]

Well that's how much the first film dropped on the 2nd Monday, but the number was higher for the first. It's still tracking better than SM3 which had a 77% drop on the 2nd monday. with a 28 million dollar buffer, it will do better money wise, but ticket sales it's going to be close.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Well that's how much the first film dropped on the 2nd Monday, but the number was higher for the first. It's still tracking better than SM3 which had a 77% drop on the 2nd monday. with a 28 million dollar buffer, it will do better money wise, but ticket sales it's going to be close.

Look at the week-to-week Monday drop. For IM1 it was 44.5% whereas it's 60% for IM2. The other thing is IM1 dropped 30% on Sunday while IM2 dropped 37% on Sunday. Not good.

 

[rashad]

Monday estimate is $3.7m. Ouch, that's a 74% drop. It might not even reach IM1's domestic gross at the rate things are going.

Yeah it's free falling fast.

 

[Tony Stark]

Look at the week-to-week Monday drop. For IM1 it was 44.5% whereas it's 60% for IM2. The other thing is IM1 dropped 30% on Sunday while IM2 dropped 37% on Sunday. Not good.

Yes it's pretty clear the film was very front loaded, no doubt. So like I say ticket wise IM2 may not outsell the first, but BO wise should finish ahead.

It should make around 12 million for the week and worst case scenario 25 million for the weekend, so that would put it just under 250 million by next weekend, the first IM was 223 after the 3rd weekend. After that the numbers will flatten out. IM 2 should cross 300 mill over the Memorial Day weekend.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I just took a closer look at IM2 and SM3's numbers. It's actually not even 5% better legs at this point.

SM3 = $243.829 million / $151.116 million = 1.613 multiplier so far.

IM2 = $214.916 million / $128.122 million = 1.677 multiplier so far.


IM2's 1.677 multiplier divided by SM3's 1.613 multiplier is a 3.968% better multiplier for IM2. Let's call it 4%.

SM3 had a 2.227 multiplier overall. 4% higher for IM2 would be a 2.316 multiplier. This would result in a total gross of $296.73 million. It's going to be tough for this movie to reach IM1's gross of $318.41 million. The only thing I can say is SM3 did have more competition, or so we think. Hopefully it will start pulling further ahead of SM3's legs as time goes on. Right now it's not looking good though.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

Even though I dislike the movie immensely, the sad part is that this will convince studios even more to plaster 3D on major movies to boost final gross.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Even though I dislike the movie immensely, the sad part is that this will convince studios even more to plaster 3D on major movies to boost final gross.

Very sad indeed.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Yeah, that monday number isnt good, and I cant see this having the legs of the first movie. Just goes to show if you dont make a better sequel than its predecessor it can effect the sequels takings.

 

[Tony Stark]

Even though I dislike the movie immensely, the sad part is that this will convince studios even more to plaster 3D on major movies to boost final gross.

I liked the movie, but i agree with you. Post production 3D is crap, and anyone who saw Clash of the Titans in 3D knows it cannot be done properly.

What I'd rather see is an increase in IMAX sreenings which admissions are the same for the 3D showing where I'm at. That would be one way to go.

The big thing is for the studio, is this wouldn't be a big deal other than sequels always increase the production budgets and they expect more back in return. However, it's not the first time a sequel has not outdone the original. I'm curious what the SM2 box office threads were like, I honestly don't remember.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I liked the movie, but i agree with you. Post production 3D is crap, and anyone who saw Clash of the Titans in 3D knows it cannot be done properly.

What I'd rather see is an increase in IMAX sreenings which admissions are the same for the 3D showing where I'm at. That would be one way to go.

The big thing is for the studio, is this wouldn't be a big deal other than sequels always increase the production budgets and they expect more back in return. However, it's not the first time a sequel has not outdone the original. I'm curious what the SM2 box office threads were like, I honestly don't remember.

The sad thing is they are even cheaping out on IMAX technology too. A few years ago the IMAX company started a contract with AMC and Regal to remodel regular movie theaters and give them bigger screens with better sound. This isn't IMAX though. It's LieMAX, yet it is being marketed as IMAX with the same prices. The screen size is significantly smaller than real IMAX. There are only around 100 true IMAX screens in North America that play Hollywood films. There are a bunch of others that are used only for museum/educational purposes. Because of the LieMAX deal, the IMAX company has not built any new true IMAX screens lately. It's sad to see IMHO.

 

[Tony Stark]

Yeah, that monday number isnt good, and I cant see this having the legs of the first movie. Just goes to show if you dont make a better sequel than its predecessor it can effect the sequels takings.

I honestly don't think the performance has to do with people's opinion of the movie. Most of the user reviews have been extremely high especially when comparing them to other dissapointing sequels like SM3 and TF2.

TF2 is a perfect example, even Shia LaBeouf said it wasn't as good, and yet it made more money, even adjusted for inflation.

SM2 is generally considered better than SM1, it made less money and way less when inflation adjusted.

There's alot of factors here, likeability may have been one, but I don't feel it was the main factor when seeing how highly reviewed it was among fans.

All I can say is the movie was extremely front loaded. Star Trek had great legs, but IM2 will surpass it's domestic total perhaps by this weekend.